Panthers vs. 49ers: Preview, score prediction for Week 1
The San Francisco 49ers host the Carolina Panthers at Levi’s Stadium on Sunday, here we preview the Week 1 contest.
The Week 1 matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Carolina Panthers is a battle of two teams looking to bounce back from 2016 disappointments but each with very different expectations.
For San Francisco, this signals the start of a new era as Kyle Shanahan takes charge of his first regular season game with a roster that is vastly different to the one that went 2-14 under Chip Kelly. The Niners will, of course, be looking to improve their record but performances are more important than results in the first year of a multi-year rebuild.
By contrast Carolina goes into the season as a legitimate playoff contender following a Super Bowl hangover that saw them go 6-10, having revamped their offense with the additions of Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel in the draft. The Panthers are the favorites to prevail and start the season 1-0, but to do so will need to end an opening-day winning streak for the 49ers that stretches back to 2011.
Keys to the Game
The Panthers’ offseason moves were about taking the pressure off Cam Newton, if the Niners are to have a chance, then they need to negate the impact of the additions Carolina has made. That naturally means stopping McCaffrey, who will look to inspire a ground game that ranked 23rd in Football Outsiders’ DVOA in 2016. If McCaffrey and Jonathan Stewart get going as runners, then that will allow Newton to set up play-action and push the ball downfield, which is what he is best at.
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Netwon’s downfield accuracy is among the best in the NFL and he has the added bonus of a starting wideout in Kelvin Benjamin who has impressed in camp and preseason. Taking away the run threat should limit Newton’s abilities to go deep, but dialling up pressure will also be key to the Niners’ hopes of slowing him down.
Per The Football Outsiders Almanac, Carolina averaged 7.1 yards per play against three or four pass rushers as opposed to 6.1 against five and 4.3 against six or more. The 49ers need their horses up front to make it a difficult afternoon for Newton.
Play-action figures to play a pivotal role in deciding this game, as Carolina must take it off the table if they are to avoid being bested by a Shanahan scheme that relies heavily on it. Stopping play-action will of course entail slowing down Carlos Hyde, whose last two season openers have resulted in 256 yards and four touchdowns.
#49ers QBs this preseason:
— Jeff Deeney (jeffdeeney on Threads) (@PFF_Jeff) September 1, 2017
Using play action: 21-31, 394 yds, 3 TD, 142.9 rating
All other throws: 46-77, 530 yds, 3 TD, 3 INT, 77.3 rating
On the other side of the ball the Panthers should be looking to bully the 49ers secondary. Benjamin has a clear size advantage on the Niners’ starting corner Rashard Robinson while Jimmie Ward’s injury could leave undrafted free agent rookie Lorenzo Jerome as the starter at free safety.
Jerome has displayed good instincts in preseason but lacks ideal athleticism for the single-high safety role. If the Panthers can keep Newton upright and help him take advantage of Jerome and the young San Francisco secondary, then they could make it a long day for the hosts.
Odds
Point Spread: Carolina -5.5
Moneyline: Carolina -235, San Francisco +195
Over/Under: 47.5
Odds from Bet365 via Sportsbook Review
Next: NFL 2017: 20 Bold predictions for Week 1
Prediction
Make no mistake, the Panthers are the better team. There is no doubt about that. But if you’re looking for a place for Week 1 weirdness, this is it. The 49ers have appeared significantly improved on both sides of the ball and should be able to give a Panthers team making a long trip to the west coast plenty of problems. These teams are likely to go in different directions but don’t be surprised if the Niners pull off a shock.
Final Score: Carolina Panthers: 19, San Francisco 49ers: 24