Cincinnati Bengals: 2017 season record prediction
By Kenn Korb
Week 1: Baltimore at Cincinnati
Pregame Cincinnati Record: 0-0
Pregame Baltimore Record: 0-0
To open the year, Cincinnati faces a rival they’ve had their way with lately. Since the 2013 season, Cincinnati is 6-2 against Baltimore. Many of these games have been close, however; six have been decided by one score, with Cincinnati finishing 4-2 in those contests.
Things appear to lean in their favor for this one as well. Not only are they at home (where they are 8-2 against Baltimore in their past 10 meetings in Cincinnati), but Baltimore has seen injuries weaken them throughout the summer. Case in point: they already have 12 players on injured reserve!
Many players — especially on offense — expected to be key to their team this year won’t be suiting up at all. Dennis Pitta, Crockett Gillmore, Kenneth Dixon, and Nico Siragusa all were expected to hold important roles coming into the summer have all been taken out of the mix. This also doesn’t include how many aging, injury-risk players they still are suiting up for the unit (if Breshad Perriman, Jeremy Maclin, Benjamin Watson, and Danny Woodhead all make it through the year unscathed, that’d be a host of miracles coalescing).
Their defense (No. 6 in Football Outsiders’ Defensive DVOA for 2016) will prevent them from being an easy out, but there’s just about zero to like about their offensive collective — and zero reason to think they’ll find any way to better utilize what talents they do have available. Cincinnati keeps their trend against Baltimore going strong in a game that ends closer in score than it probably should.
Cincinnati: 20, Baltimore: 13
Week 2: Houston at Cincinnati
Pregame Cincinnati Record: 1-0
A rematch from last season, when these two fought to the end in a 12-10 Houston victory. That game was close to being a 13-12 Cincinnati win, however, if not for a missed kick (something which plagued the Bengals throughout 2016) near the end. This time around, Cincinnati should be much more complete of a team. They have a better cache of offensive weaponry and an influx of talented defensive youth.
Houston has made moves to improve things on their end too, but there are some more issues on their end. Brock Osweiler is gone, but the team seems settled on keeping Tom Savage — he of the 25th-best QBR for Week 16 from that meeting last season — in the starting spot early this season. Deshaun Watson may or may not an upcoming star quarterback, but it won’t have any chance of happening without an injury to Savage in Week 1. Meanwhile on defense, they get back J.J. Watt and CB Kevin Johnson, but have lost other key pieces (including excellent cornerback A.J. Bouye).
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All things considered, this won’t be an easy contest to win for Cincinnati. They may have a better collection of offensive talent, and their defense is better than Houston’s offense, but neither of their units is on the level of Houston’s defense.
Playing against one of the league’s best defensive fronts will be a mountainous challenge for a Cincinnati offensive line in the midst of major changes from last year. What makes it even worse: this game will be on a Thursday night, putting them on a short week after what will undoubtedly be a physically demanding outing against Baltimore.
The strengths of Houston will keep the score close, but the difference still apparent between the two offenses involved should give Cincinnati enough of an edge to make it two straight victories to begin this season.
Cincinnati: 19, Houston: 12
Week 3: Cincinnati at Green Bay
Pregame Cincinnati Record: 2-0
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has won many games and beaten many teams in his career. Somehow, Cincinnati has never been added to that list. Granted, a major part of that has to do with rarely playing each other due to being in different conferences (only played them twice during his career), but in those games he’s been held in check to a degree that’s rarely been seen.
Still, it isn’t like those games were blowouts (both were one-score contests); a few lucky breaks their way could’ve easily made those wins into Cincinnati losses, and expecting any team to hold down a top quarterback such as Rodgers tends to be a fool’s errand.
What should be expected is to see the ball flying through the air early and often. Green Bay’s offense was No. 7 in Pass Offense DVOA for 2016 — and was especially potent as the team recovered from a 4-6 start to win their next eight contests before a loss in the NFC Championship Game.
Cincinnati was No. 11 in that same metric, and gets to face a secondary which was No. 23 in Pass Defense DVOA in 2016 and has embarked on massive turnover for the unit in the offseason. Those changes include multiple new draftees (Kevin King, Josh Jones) and some returning veterans (Davon House). Those changes will likely help by the end of the year, but it could give the Bengals a few targets worth aiming at with their slew of receiving weapons.
This should yet again be a close contest, but the changes to Cincinnati’s defense since the last time these teams faced each other should leave them more vulnerable to a Rodgers-led offense; with it comes a close match which gives Cincinnati their first loss of the season.
Green Bay: 31, Cincinnati: 27
Week 4: Cincinnati at Cleveland
Pregame Cincinnati Record: 2-1
Coming off their first loss, Cincinnati should have a quick recovery. It may not be quite as easy as recent seasons would have you think, however.
Cleveland was the worst team in the league last season, and should continue to be among the league’s worst in 2017. They have added significant young talents though, and that could keep a lot of games much closer than expected.
On offense, they have a potentially excellent offensive line after adding guard Kevin Zeitler and center J.C. Tretter to a group that already had stalwarts Joe Thomas and Joel Bitonio. The players that group are blocking for isn’t exciting (of the skill position players, Kenny Britt is probably the most established), but building competent blocking units has helped lead multiple teams back to prominence in recent years (ex: Dallas and Oakland) and it could be the first step to the Browns maybe finally finding consistent success.
Meanwhile, the defense is all-in on the youth movement, and they may have cornerstones to build each position group around already (Myles Garrett on the defensive line; Jamie Collins at linebacker; Jabrill Peppers in the secondary).
By my estimation, the team will already be ahead of schedule with their first victory due to beating a possibly Andrew Luck-less Indianapolis team the week before; a win against cincinnati would have them sitting at .500 a month into the season. That shouldn’t happen though, of course. The depth of offensive talent on the Bengals should vastly outplay a defensive group that has far too many young players and castoffs making up their current depth chart. Defensively, the Browns provide no players to strike fear into their opponent.
A sizeable victory for the road team should ensue.