Rams vs. 49ers: Preview, score prediction for Week 3
The San Francisco 49ers go into Thursday’s meeting with the Los Angeles Rams still searching for their first win, here we preview the Week 3 clash.
The Thursday Night Football clash between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams will provide a window into which of the two rebuilding teams in the NFC West is further along. It is the Rams who have had the better start to the campaign having registered a win in the opener, while the 49ers have lost their opening two games.
But both have reason to be for optimism and concern through two weeks. The 49ers look substantially improved on defense, as their narrow 12-9 loss to the Seattle Seahawks demonstrated, but have gotten extremely little from starting quarterback Brian Hoyer.
Meanwhile, the Rams’ dominant victory over the Colts comes with the caveat that it was against a terrible Indianapolis Colts team quarterbacked by Scott Tolzien and, while there has undoubtedly been improvement from Jared Goff, there has to be some worry over the run defense after Los Angeles gave up 229 yards on the ground in the Week 2 defeat to the Washington Redskins.
Keys to the Game
Los Angeles ranked at No. 6 in the league in run defense DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, in 2016, but Sunday’s showing against Washington indicated that strength against the run has not carried over into 2017 for a unit now headed by Wade Phillips.
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The Rams had nightmares defending Carlos Hyde in both their meetings last year and the 49ers running back looks in ominous form once again after a 100-yard game against the Seahawks. If the run defense is as porous as it was against Washginton, then the 49ers may be able to ride Hyde to victory.
Similarly Todd Gurley will look to have another strong performance for the Rams after averaging 5.5 yards per carry versus the Redskins, but may find life difficult against an improved 49ers defense that has given up an average of 123.5 rushing yards per game through the first two weeks but stifled the Seahawks ground attack until late in the fourth quarter.
If Gurley is unable to have success on the ground then naturally the onus will be on Goff who, according to Pro Football Focus Elite, has the third-most yards on passes travelling over 20 yards downfield, to deliver again. Eric Reid’s absence in the 49er secondary may well aid Goff’s cause but his task will be made tougher if the Rams offensive line cannot cope with the stacks of talent San Francisco has up front.
So much for being just a game manager pic.twitter.com/alexq9534E
— PFF (@PFF) September 19, 2017
The performance of left guard Roger Saffold — who ranked last in snaps per blown block in 2016 per The Football Outsiders Almanac — figures to be key if the likes of DeForest Buckner, Arik Armstead and Solomon Thomas are to be kept quiet after giving Russell Wilson plenty of problems in Week 2.
Similarly Aaron Donald and Robert Quinn will look to penetrate a San Francisco offensive line that, per PFF, gave up just five pressures in Week 2. However, even the 49ers do keep a clean pocket, it is anyone’s guess whether Brian Hoyer will be able take advantage after throwing for just 99 yards with an interception against Seatte.
Nobody wants a primetime special teams battle, but Rams punter Johnny Hekker is one of the best in the league and his leg could be pivotal in terms of the fight for field position if this turns into a defensive struggle.
Odds
Point Spread: Los Angeles -2
Moneyline: Los Angeles -125, San Francisco +105
Over/Under: 40
Odds from Bet365 via Sportsbook Review
Next: 2018 NFL Mock Draft: Offensive linemen fill big needs
Prediction
The 49ers have won the last three meetings with the Rams. On a short week for both teams and with San Francisco enjoying home advantage, they should have enough to extend that streak to four and record a first win of the season behind the running game of Carlos Hyde and another strong defensive showing.
Final Score: Los Angeles Rams: 10, San Francisco 49ers: 17