Who can you trust after three weeks of NFL 2017 action? Your Week 4 best picks against the spread, including teasers. Four picks to count on.
In Week 3, a whopping 10 of 13 underdogs covered. Six won their games outright. Todd coincidentally backed three road favorites with his selections, and all three lost straight-up. It was an inauspicious start to his teaser selections, though the entire betting public took a severe beating. Dan did great, so what did we learn?
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NFL Week 4 is when trust comes into play. Patterns exist and home field advantage is very real this season. Your best picks against the spread for week 4, with teasers. Here are the lines for Week 4 via Sportsbook Review.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL 2017 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
2017 Record ATS
Dan’s record ATS: 4-2
Todd’s record ATS: 2-4
Week 3 is normally when we start to understand the season. Uh, not so much for Todd. Dan, on the other hand, had no such trouble last week, nailing both his ATS and teaser picks. Let’s take one piece of advice from his example. Don’t put your money behind three road favorites ever again.
Todd Salem’s NFL Week 4 Picks
Todd’s Teaser:
Cleveland Browns +10.5 (from +4.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Los Angeles Rams +13.5 (from +7.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Last week, a number of the favorites seemed like great bets. I feel the exact opposite this week. I find myself gravitating toward a bunch of the underdogs, both at home and on the road. Pushing lines into double figures isn’t always the best way to guarantee a cover from a bad team, but these matchups hardly feel lopsided. I wouldn’t be surprised by either of my selections in my two-team teaser winning outright, which is key.
Cleveland still isn’t very good, but neither is Cincinnati. Pushing the Packers to overtime doesn’t change my opinion of what the Bengals can do. They still aren’t running the ball well and have just one weapon on offense. Sometimes A.J. Green is enough to win, and he might be here. But Cincy won’t cover double digits. The same goes for Dallas hosting the Rams. I said the other day I’m not really a believer yet in the LA Rams’ offense, but getting 13.5 is a healthy way to hedge my bets while backing the squad with the very best pass offense in the NFL.
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San Francisco 49ers +7 at Arizona Cardinals
Much like backing the Browns, putting money behind San Francisco is more a bet against Arizona than one for SF. Arizona really stinks this year. Carson Palmer really stinks this year. David Johnson is not coming back anytime soon. The Cards are in bad shape. San Francisco remains admittedly winless, but it feels like a competent 0-3, if such a thing is possible. The transitive property of football knowledge is still whirring around clueless (we don’t know if Carolina, Seattle, and the Rams are all actually mediocre or worse this year, which would lower SF’s moral victory count to zero), but it feels like the 49ers have a little something.
Dan Salem’s NFL Week 4 Picks
Dan’s Teaser:
Buffalo Bills +14.5 (from +8.5) at Atlanta Falcons
New England Patriots -3 (from -9) vs. Carolina Panthers
The Falcons may be undefeated, but they are by no means invincible. The Buffalo Bills have been playing great defense, holding opponents in check. Their only loss was by two field goals in week 2 against the Panthers. They overcame Denver’s defense last week, so take 14.5 points. This game will be close. Two touchdowns is too good to pass up.
My second game in this week’s teaser is the perfect complement. New England is great at home, while the Panthers are reeling. Kelvin Benjamin might be out with an injury, and Carolina’s offense has struggled thus far even with him on the field. The original line scared me a bit, but New England will win by more than a field goal. Give three points and be happy with this six-point teaser for Week 4.
Next: NFL 2017: One burning question for each team, Week 4
Indianapolis Colts +13.5 at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle has lost by eight points, won by three points over lowly San Francisco, and lost by six points. Their defense could not stop Tennessee last weekend, and their offense has struggled in two of three games. The Seahawks likely win at home, but the Colts showed fight in week 3. They will not go down easily, so take 13.5 points and enjoy the close finish. This is likely a ten point game at most, so the underdog covers with ease.