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Dolphins vs. Titans: Preview, score prediction for Week 5

By Chris Spooner

LONDON, ENGLAND - OCTOBER 01: Jay Cutler #6 of the Miami Dolphins is tackled by Rafael Bush #25 of the New Orleans Saints in the first half during the NFL game between the Miami Dolphins and the New Orleans Saints at Wembley Stadium on October 1, 2017 in London, England. (Photo by Henry Browne/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND - OCTOBER 01: Jay Cutler #6 of the Miami Dolphins is tackled by Rafael Bush #25 of the New Orleans Saints in the first half during the NFL game between the Miami Dolphins and the New Orleans Saints at Wembley Stadium on October 1, 2017 in London, England. (Photo by Henry Browne/Getty Images) /
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Miami Dolphins vs. Tennessee Titans

The wheels are starting to fall off the bus for the Miami Dolphins. They return stateside with their collective tail between their legs after being shut out by the New Orleans Saints in London. Last Sunday’s game was the second straight game that the offense has failed to produce a touchdown, and fans and media alike are already calling for changes to the offense. Now the Dolphins get to come home for their first real home game of the year and try to salvage the season against the Tennessee Titans.

If there’s anything positive that can be said for the Dolphins current situation, it’s that the team has been here before. They know how to handle adversity and rebound from a slow start to the season. Just last year this Dolphins team, led by then-rookie head coach Adam Gase, fell to a 1-4 record before climbing back to reach the playoffs. If the Dolphins fall again this Sunday, they’ll be well on their way to needing a repeat performance.

It sounds pretty “doom and gloom”. But it is worth it to point out that the team Miami fell to last season to drop to 1-4 was the Tennessee Titans. However, this year’s Titans team is markedly different from the team Miami faced last season. Quarterback Marcus Mariota has another year under his belt, and is really starting to come into his own in this league. The team has also added some weapons around him, most notably in the form of a revamped receiving corps. The Titans added former New York Jets receiver Eric Decker in the offseason, and added Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor, and Jonnu Smith in this year’s draft.

If the Dolphins are going to even their record and avoid falling to 1-3, what do they need to do to keep Tennessee under wraps and get back on course? Let’s dive into the keys to victory.

Keys to Victory

The weak point for the Dolphins last season was their run defense. They finished the year as the 30th-ranked rush defense. It was a huge point of emphasis for the team heading into the off-season. So far, it looks like that emphasis was well worth it. The Dolphins defense has vastly improved against the run this season. They come home for Sunday’s game as the fourth-ranked rush defense.

That run defense is going to be tested in a big way against the Titans. Tennessee comes to Miami averaging just under 140 yards per game on the ground with the three-headed rushing attack that is Marcus Mariota, Derrick Henry, and DeMarco Murray. Miami’s front four has their work cut out for them, but if they can make Tennessee one-dimensional, their odds improve.

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I would like to say that their odds improve dramatically. But that’s not a limb I’m willing to go out on. Yet. In a complete 180 from last season, it’s the Dolphins pass defense that has been the thorn in the team’s side this season.

Thanks in large part to suspect linebacker coverage over the middle, and some unrest in the cornerbacks group, the Dolphins defense has allowed opponents an average of just over 272 passing yards per game. That’s simply not going to cut it against a team with the caliber weapons that the Titans possess. If there’s anything encouraging, rookie cornerback Cordrea Tankersley played well last week and could be an emerging bright spot.

At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter how well the Dolphins defense does against the run or the pass if the offense can’t score. In the last two weeks the Dolphins special teams has combined to score six points. You didn’t read that wrong. The Dolphins offense has not scored a single point since their opening tilt against the Los Angeles Chargers. Two field goals in New York and a shut-out against the Saints is what fans have had to suffer through.

If the way the Dolphins win games is to rely on the defense to score points, it’s not going to be a pretty season. This isn’t the 2001 Baltimore Ravens out there. Jay Cutler, Adam Gase, and the Dolphins offense has to get on the same page if the team is going to recover this season. I said it last week and I’ll say it again this week, Miami needs to come out early and establish the run. The offense is at its best when it relies heavily on Jay Ajayi.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Tennessee – 3
Moneyline: Tennessee – 145, Miami + 125
Over/Under: 43.5

Odds via Sportsbook Review

Prediction:

The Dolphins are averaging eight points per game this season, so 24 points might be wishful thinking. I think that this is the week the offense finally wakes up though. The Dolphins don’t want to fall to 1-3 for a second straight season. Gase has hinted that some big changes could be on the horizon if the offense doesn’t shape up. One of those changes could be in Gase himself. Should the offense falter again, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Miami bring in an offensive coordinator to relieve Gase of play-calling duties.

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No one wants to see that happen. The Dolphins finally get their act together on offense and play like a team with this kind of weaponry should. Run the ball early, set up the pass, and win one for the hometown crowd.

Final Score: Miami Dolphins: 24 Tennessee Titans: 17

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