Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans
The Cleveland Browns are still looking for their first win of the season as they travel to NRG Stadium to face the Houston Texans. Originally, this game looked to be a matchup between two rookie quarterbacks in DeShone Kizer and Deshaun Watson.
However, the Browns announced that second-year quarterback Kevin Hogan will get his first start of the season after Kizer’s struggles led to him getting benched for the second half of last week’s game. While the Texans have only gone 2-2 in the four games Watson has started this season, there is a lot to be hopeful for in Houston. Watson already looks like he could be the best quarterback the Texans have ever drafted.
Will a change make that much of a difference for Cleveland, or is this Watson and Houston’s game to lose?
Keys to Victory
Houston is going to need to find a way on defense to make up for the players they have lost on defense. The Texans lost two of their best defensive players when Whitney Mercilus and J.J. Watt were both injured in last week’s game against the Kansas City Chiefs. Both players are expected to miss the remainder of the season. Brian Cushing, another key player on Houston’s defense, is still serving a 10-game suspension for his second violation of the league’s performance-enhancing drug policy.
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The Texans were able to ride their defense to a division title last season, despite their poor quarterback play. Watson seems to be a huge improvement over any quarterback on their roster last year, but he is still a rookie who will be prone to mistakes in his first season. Maintaining a strong defense is the best way to take pressure off of Watson and get the best results. In all likelihood, the Texans do not have the roster talent to replace players like Watt and Mercilus. However, they will need to find a scheme change or something to make sure the loss of a few key players does not tank the defense.
If the Browns can establish an effective rushing attack, they may have a chance in this game. Cleveland enters this game with the 25th ranked run game, averaging just 89.2 yards per game. The Browns defense has been better than expected, currently ranked fifth in yards allowed. However, they are still giving up the seventh-most points in the league. If Cleveland establishes an effective run game it will allow them to control the tempo and limit Houston’s scoring opportunities. This would also take the ball out of the hands of Hogan, which is probably a good thing for the young quarterback making his first career start.
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Houston -10
Moneyline: Houston -400, Cleveland +330
Over/Under: 47
Odds via Sportsbook Review
Next: NFL 2017: Picks against the spread for Week 6
Prediction
It’s hard to know the exact impact the loss of Watt and Mercilus will have on Houston’s defense and moral. The Texans still have a talented roster but Watt is not only one of the top ten best players in the entire league, he is also an important leader in that locker room. Against any other team in the league, I would be concerned about Houston’s chances in this game. However, the Browns are still winless and Houston has the home-field advantage.
Final Score: Cleveland Browns: 20, Houston Texans: 31