We crushed our picks last week, meaning the NFL is finally making sense. Don’t let off the gas. Your best picks against the spread (ATS) for NFL 2017 week 10!
Just another week in the 2017 NFL season. Seattle lost at home; Kansas City lost its third game in four weeks; Indianapolis and the New York Jets have seven combined wins even though they were shoe-ins for top five draft picks prior to the season; Green Bay lost at home to Detroit, which would, admittedly, be rarer if Aaron Rodgers had played. No worries!
We nailed our picks last week, despite the craziness that went on. Is the NFL 2017 finally making sense. Don’t let off the gas now. Here are the lines for Week 10 via OddsShark.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL 2017 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
NFL 2017 Record ATS
Dan’s record ATS: 9-9
Todd’s record ATS: 7-11
Interestingly, there was a nice balance of expected outcomes this past week as well. All four of the teams we placed in teasers in Week 9 won without being teased. The extra points weren’t needed, but Todd’s still struggling to get over the hump with his standard selections. There are a lot of games to like in week 10, so get ready to keep on winning.
Todd Salem’s NFL Week 10 Picks
Todd’s Teaser:
Pittsburgh Steelers -4 (from -10) at Indianapolis Colts
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5 (from +2.5) vs. New York Jets
The Steelers are 4-1 on the road. The Colts still feel like one of the three worst teams in the league. I don’t know if Pittsburgh is going to win by double digits, but I feel confident it will win by at least the four necessary here.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to be Tampa Bay’s quarterback in this second game. The Jets are overly familiar with his work, which is good for the Jets and bad for the Buccaneers, beyond the latter being forced to use him in this game. And still, I can’t bring myself to imagine a world in which the Jets should be favored by multiple points in a road game. Their only road win to this point is over the Browns, so what are we even talking about? Since I can’t clear that mental block in my mind, I’ll throw the Bucs in a tease.
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Todd’s Teaser II:
Jacksonville Jaguars +2 (from -4) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Dallas Cowboys +9 (from +3) at Atlanta Falcons
It is never advisable to rely so heavily on teasers. Now I need four teams to win in Week 10. Nevertheless, I felt good about these four matchups, so here we are.
Is it just me, or is Blake Bortles competent now? More importantly, the Jaguars still have the best defense in football. And even still more importantly, I don’t think the Chargers are good. Take a look at their schedule. They have played four easy games and four hard games to this point. They won three of the easy games and lost all four of the hard games (with Denver on the road qualifying as hard and hosting Denver being easy. It’s a fine line I suppose). Week 10 is another hard game. Picking NFL games doesn’t have to be overly difficult!
As for Dallas, it is clearly a better football team than Atlanta right now. The Falcons are 1-2 at home both straight-up and against the spread, so that doesn’t even play in their favor. What does is a potential Ezekiel Elliott suspension. I’m grabbing Dallas +3 before we know if Elliott is in, throwing the Cowboys in a tease to partially hedge my bet. If Elliott is allowed to play, this line probably drops to even by game day.
Dan Salem’s NFL Week 10 Picks
Dan’s Teaser:
Buffalo Bills +9 (from +3) vs. New Orleans Saints
Los Angeles Rams -5.5 (from -11.5) vs. Houston Texans
I always aim for the lines that scream ‘what have you done for me lately,’ then shove them into my teaser. Buffalo got embarrassed last week on the road, with a short week of practice. So now Vegas is giving them points at home, yet this is a dream come true. The Bills have a great defense and just added a new weapon to their offense in wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin. With a mini-bye to prepare for New Orleans, at home no less, this will be a close game in which Buffalo wants to prove to themselves they are actually the good team we saw prior to week 9.
The Saints are hot as hell, but this is comparing apples to apples. If you remove the Bills latest loss, then these are two even teams on both sides of the football. I favor the home team, who is getting nine points in my teaser. Win win.
Houston was a completely different team without Deshaun Watson under center, and since they refuse to sign Colin Kaepernick and trot out Tom Savage, the Texans offense is not going to be dynamic. You know who’s offense is dynamic? The Los Angeles Rams, who are going to humiliate Houston. This is a home game for the Rams, and East Coast teams are known for struggling out west. Eleven and a half points was a lot to give up, but in my teaser Los Angeles is only sacrificing five and a half. They win by at least a touchdown.
Fantasy Football: Star Quarterbacks Lead Week 10 GOTW
San Francisco 49ers +2.5 vs. New York Giants
San Francisco is playing hard and actually trying to win football games. The same can no longer be said of the Giants. New York barely showed up last week at home, coming off a bye. Now they must travel across the country to face a younger team that quite frankly is better. The 49ers are home, yet they are the team getting points. Vegas is begging you to pick New York, but don’t be fooled.
I watched San Francisco push Arizona to the brink last weekend, and rookie quarterback C.J. Beathard is playing excellent, considering the number of injuries and the shadow of Jimmy Garoppolo looming overhead. I expect the 49ers to dominate the game and win by a touchdown or more. Grab the points in this one.