Chicago Bears: Coach John Fox the problem or solution?

The Chicago Bears are coming up short in games, yet the team has exceeded expectations thus far. Is coach John Fox the problem or solution? Where would the Bears be without him?

Week 10 of the NFL season felt like a separation Sunday of sorts. The Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, Washington Redskins, San Diego Chargers, and Dallas Cowboys all lost big games that seemed to drop them from some level of playoff contention into a more realistic tier just below. No one, though, dropped more aesthetically than the Chicago Bears.

The Bears began the year 3-4, defeating some excellent football teams along the way. But now Chicago sits at 3-6, likely out of the playoff race. Does coach John Fox deserve blame for his team coming up short, or do we praise him for exceeding initial expectations?

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the Chicago Bears in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

Chicago is having a weird season. They seem to stink, but remained in the postseason hunt for 10 weeks behind a rookie quarterback who rarely threw the ball. Hosting the Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay Packers was a real chance to move up in the crowded world of the NFC playoffs. The Bears already lost tiebreakers with essentially every NFC contender they have faced, so Week 10 was a turning point. They turned in the wrong direction, thanks in large part to coach John Fox.

Fox’s decision to challenge a potential touchdown midway through the Green Bay game is getting all of the attention this week. His team had the ball first and goal at the 2-yard line, but Fox wasn’t satisfied. He challenged the play that brought the ball to that placement, and instead of coming away with a touchdown, the referee declared a fumble out the endzone, giving the ball to GB on a touchback. The same outcome happened to the Jets recently, though Todd Bowles didn’t request the refs consider giving the ball to his opponent.

It was a terrible decision by Fox, obviously. It also felt pretty apt for this Chicago Bears season. They are close to a figurative touchdown, but we should probably just give the ball to someone else instead.

It is hard to tell who is in the best shape to win the Wild Cards in the NFC, but I feel confident in saying Chicago is no longer in the discussion. The lone decision to challenge a touchdown that turned into a turnover isn’t solely responsible, but Fox feels at fault. The team has a good defense and running game that couldn’t overcome an opponent that was leaning on Brett Hundley and Jamaal Williams. Maybe Fox should be given kudos for bringing this club to a point of contention this late in the season. Or maybe it has now fallen out of that because of the man on the sidelines.

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It felt incredibly weird that the Denver Broncos would have wanted to move on from Fox after four straight playoff berths and three straight 12-win seasons. But since he joined Chicago, nothing has gone according to plan. The Bears starting this season with a respectable 3-4 record wasn’t even supposed to happen. Maybe now we are finally back on track.

Dan Salem:

Before the season began, I anticipated that this would be a rebuilding year for the Chicago Bears. They appeared to be a team in transition, ideal for a rookie quarterback to cut his teeth and make his mistakes, all while improving along with his teammates. After 10 weeks, this is exactly what the Bears are. Chicago is not a bad team, but not a playoff team either. They are constantly improving, yet incomplete. Much like my New York Jets, the Bears make too many simple mistakes that keep them from winning more games and being elite in 2017. Does this fall on the head coach in Chicago?

Normally I’d give coach Fox a pass, but his history is quite revealing. Denver fired him after he won a lot. Apparently the trend in MLB of firing winning managers is not unique to baseball. Apparently winning isn’t everything in the NFL, despite what coaches and analysts preach. John Fox keeps winning, yet his bosses keep believing he’s holding his teams back. The Broncos thought so, and now the Chicago Bears appear to be in a similar situation. Fox has once again exceeded reasonable expectations for his team, but its not good enough. Whatever he’s doing in the offseason is working to perfection. But what he’s doing in the regular season is not always to the benefit of his football team.

The bigger question for the Bears is at quarterback. As you noted, Mitchell Trubisky is not throwing the ball very much. He lost the starting job during the preseason, then “won” it back in September. Rookies need to be given time, and learning on the field in meaningful games is the best for player development, but hard on a team. Chicago has the luxury of letting him play out the season. Low expectations, coupled with roster turnover, set them up to groom Trubisky.

Next: NFL 2017: 20 Bold predictions for Week 11

The bad record is not on coach Fox. Missing the playoffs was the expectation, so their average record is an improvement. Just like coach Todd Bowles in New York, neither coach should now be blamed because their teams appear more like the ones we expected them to be. Instead we should give them credit for a fast start and strong development of young players. Fox is not the problem in Chicago.

We know NFL coaches make a big difference for football teams. Yet more important are the coordinators they hire to support them. If you do a great job picking coordinators, they will succeed and receive better jobs elsewhere. This is the sports cycle. Fox needs another season with the Bears and year two with his quarterback. The team will be expected to compete in 2018, so judge him on that. Firing him now only starts the cycle over in the middle of the current one.