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NFL 2017: Best picks against the spread (ATS), Week 11

By Dan Salem

PHILADELPHIA, PA - JANUARY 01: Quarterback Carson Wentz #11 of the Philadelphia Eagles escapes Randy Gregory #94 of the Dallas Cowboys during the third quarter of a game at Lincoln Financial Field on January 1, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Eagles defatted the Cowboys 27-13. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JANUARY 01: Quarterback Carson Wentz #11 of the Philadelphia Eagles escapes Randy Gregory #94 of the Dallas Cowboys during the third quarter of a game at Lincoln Financial Field on January 1, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Eagles defatted the Cowboys 27-13. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /
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Sibling rivalry at its finest — one brother is on fire and the other keeps missing picks. Your best picks against the spread (ATS) for NFL Week 11!

As Dan continues to hold onto this NFL 2017 season, Todd is falling into the abyss. Dan is on fire lately, but Todd still thinks that Pittsburgh -4 at Indianapolis is a good pick, and no one can convince him otherwise. Even the real-life results of the game that the two teams played won’t sway him.

Its sibling rivalry at its finest, as one brother is dominating the other. Will Todd make a run towards respectability this season? Can Dan keep his hot streak alive? Here are the lines for Week 11 via OddsShark.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL 2017 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

NFL 2017 Record ATS

Dan’s record ATS: 10-10
Todd’s record ATS: 7-13

Speaking of crazy finishes, the AFC is a wild hellscape. Four of the best five teams in the league are NFC squads according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA. And you know who the lone AFC representative is? The Pittsburgh Steelers, even after they could have lost to the Colts. Go figure.

Todd Salem’s NFL Week 11 Picks

Todd’s Teaser:
Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 (from -7.5) at Cleveland Browns
New Orleans Saints -1.5 (from -7.5) vs. Washington Redskins

I’m going back to the basics for my teaser this week, picking two of the best teams in the league giving just over a touchdown apiece. After the tease, all Jacksonville and New Orleans have to do is win by more than a point. The Jaguars can’t blow that against the Browns. And New Orleans shouldn’t either against the injury-ravaged Redskins. I liked this matchup earlier in the week, but it’s a bad sign when every member of the Skins offensive line can’t make it through practice, right? And Rob Kelley is out, and Jordan Reed is questionable again. Yikes.

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Los Angeles Rams +2.5 at Minnesota Vikings

This game could be a deciding factor in playoff first-round byes. It’s crazy that it involves the Rams and Vikings. I like this spot more for LA, though, even if it is the road team. Minnesota is running into a locker room problem of its own creation: keep playing Case Keenum or switch to Teddy Bridgewater. Common sense would say to stick with Keenum, who has led the team to six wins already. But everyone on that roster knows Bridgewater is the better player, even probably Keenum. How long can that situation remain cozy? Any sign of problems against the Rams and the questions will start. Plus, not for nothing, but Los Angeles has surpassed Jacksonville as the best defense in football. That won’t help Keenum or the coaches.

Dan Salem’s NFL Week 11 Picks

Dan’s Teaser:
Arizona Cardinals +7.5 (from +1.5) at Houston Texans
Buffalo Bills +10.5 (from +4.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

My picks this week are focused against team defense. I do not believe in the Texans’ defense, or the Chargers ability to completely shut down LeSean McCoy. Picking two road teams is dangerous, but both are getting over a touchdown in my teaser. This removes any and all concerns for these two picks.

Arizona is a more complete and confident team than Houston. If forced to do so, I’d select the Cardinals straight up in this game. With more than a touchdown in my hands, I love this pick. The same is true of the Buffalo Bills. They will be starting a rookie quarterback, but the strength of the team is defense and the running game. With more than ten points in hand, I feel confident in a Bills pick for this teaser.

Fantasy Football: Start or Sit in NFL Week 11?

Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 at Dallas Cowboys

Sometimes momentum is everything, and Philadelphia has all of it. The Cowboys lost a tough game last week and looked nothing like their dominant selves with Ezekiel Elliott sidelined. Despite being at home, I do not believe their offense has enough to compete with the Eagles. Philadelphia is coming off their bye, giving them two full weeks to prepare to down Dallas. The Eagles have been blowing teams out, but this game will be a bit closer. Three and a half points is nothing, so give it up and take the best team in the NFL.

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