Favorites are on fire, meaning the spreads are accurate and you must pick carefully. Good thing we are rolling. Your best picks against the spread (ATS) for NFL Week 13!
This, courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information: “Favorites have dominated in November overall, going 37-15-4 against the spread. It’s the best month for favorites against the spread in the Super Bowl era.” Vegas is trying to create balance, so don’t get fooled. We know better.
NFL Week 13 is still about favorites, but also outliers. Dan is on a roll and Todd is holding strong! Your best picks against the spread. Here are the lines for Week 13 via OddsShark.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL 2017 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
NFL 2017 Record ATS
Dan’s record ATS: 13-11
Todd’s record ATS: 9-15
Favorites began last week 11-1 in the first 12 games. It’s been a crazy turnaround considering the start underdogs had this season. That is the point of spreads after all, to balance out favorites and dogs, but this is getting ridiculous. We aren’t finding a balance as much as are riding a carnival pirate ship.
Todd Salem’s NFL Week 13 Picks
Todd’s Teaser:
New England Patriots -1.5 (from -7.5) at Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Rams -0.5 (from -6.5) at Arizona Cardinals
I’ll jump on the wave and grab two comfortable favorites in a teaser. New England and Los Angeles are both streaking toward the postseason. I don’t see either of their respective opponents putting up enough of a fight to win outright even if they cover the full spread.
Tyrod Taylor‘s prove-it game for Buffalo was last week. Now that he established himself again as the team’s starter, he can go back to pulling the ball down and not challenging defenses with throws. He’s 26th in the league in yards/attempt for a reason.
More from NFL Spin Zone
- Dallas Cowboys made the trade everyone else should have made
- Pittsburgh Steelers rookie sleeper everyone should be talking about
- Anthony Richardson putting jaw-dropping talent on display immediately
- Denver Broncos’ stud wide receiver might be out for a while
- Washington Commanders: Three takeaways from win over Ravens
I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Arizona recently, though twice it was in a losing effort. The Cardinals also just lost to LA 33-0 a few weeks ago.
Houston Texans +7 at Tennessee Titans
I don’t know what the Texans are; perhaps the worst good team in the NFL. A win over Arizona followed by a close loss at Baltimore isn’t a terrible stretch. It’s actually the worst good stretch a team can have! This is more about Tennessee being overvalued. The Titans have looked shaky for weeks now. Other than a win over those same Ravens, Tennessee has been sloppy for over a month. It keeps winning thanks to a weak schedule, but actually grades out worse than Houston according to DVOA and point differential. Tennessee and Buffalo are the only two teams in the league with a record above .500 and a negative differential.
Dan Salem’s NFL Week 13 Picks
Dan’s Teaser:
Minnesota Vikings +9.5 (from +3.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Green Bay Packers +8 (from +2) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sometimes Vegas tries to outsmart us, and other times they are flat out wrong. My teaser focuses on two evenly matched games, where the team I expect to win is actually getting points. Minnesota is dominating people and their defense is dong a lot of the heavy lifting. Perhaps Atlanta can overcome it, or perhaps not. Since the Falcons are home, they are favored. But the Vikings are a better football team. In my teaser they get over nine points, which is too good to pass up. Vikings win, but you only need them to keep it tight.
The second half of my teaser is all about homefield advantage. I love the Packers at home, especially against a struggling Buccaneers team. Somehow Tampa Bay is being favored, which made me take pause. Do I trust either of these teams? No I do not. What we can count on is the Packers not getting blown out. Eight points is more than enough in this matchup.
Next: 2018 NFL Mock Draft: Giants replace Eli
New Orleans Saints -4 vs. Carolina Panthers
This might be the best game of the week, or Carolina could look like they did last weekend against the Jets. New York nearly beat the Panthers, if not for more fourth quarter mistakes. New Orleans will not make those same mistakes, is playing at home, and wants to rebound from a tough loss in week 12. I do not believe the Panthers can stop the Saints. This could be ugly, but I fully expect a New Orleans victory. They only need to win by a touchdown. Drew Brees has it covered.