Will Kansas City Chiefs defeat momentum, Chargers to win AFC West?

The Kansas City Chiefs are still in first place in the AFC West, albeit tied with the Los Angeles Chargers and Oakland Raiders.

The most interesting thing developing in the NFL right now is the AFC West race. The Kansas City Chiefs continue to crumble, which has allowed both the Los Angeles Chargers and Oakland Raiders to get back into the hunt. Heading into Week 14, all three teams are tied at 6-6. They all kind of stink, just some have stunk in different weeks than the others.

Can the Chiefs defeat momentum and overcome the Chargers to win the AFC West? Does Oakland have fight left to challenge Kansas City or Los Angeles? Winning all four remaining games might be necessary, but all three teams play one another.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the Kansas City Chiefs and AFC West in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

Everyone is ready to bury the Chiefs because of recency bias. The Chargers and/or Raiders will surely pass them because they have lost six of their past seven games, so the common refrain goes. But unless you believe that momentum is the strongest force in football, Kansas City isn’t any worse off than its two divisional opponents. In fact, it still might be in the best shape to win the AFC West.

First, we know this division isn’t very good. This comes through in the teams’ records, the fact that the Giants have just two wins this season and both came against the AFC West, none of the four teams are currently better than 3-2 at home, and none have a point differential even half as good as the Jaguars’. Any of the three contenders could win this division.

Kansas City is in complete free fall, but it isn’t done yet. The important stuff:

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1) It has already played both Los Angeles and Oakland on the road.
2) The two games remaining against those teams are both in Kansas City.
3) It already defeated the Chargers head-to-head.
4) Three of its final four games are at home.
5) The only road game is against the decrepit Broncos.

Now, the other “timing” factors:

Yes, Kansas City has lost four games in a row, but so did Los Angeles and Oakland! All three teams put together losing streaks of four games this season. It just so happens that the Chiefs’ is current. Those with strong feelings on momentum and losing the path could feel that Kansas City is a lost cause because this is happening now. But those same people would have technically felt that way about both the Chargers and Raiders earlier in the season. They weren’t lost. We know this because they are now tied for the division lead after putting together three and two-game winning streaks, respectively. Don’t fall victim to circumstances of timing if the overall picture offers a different conclusion. The Chiefs are in good shape to win the division.

Dan Salem:

Momentum certainly is not the only thing, but its definitely important. Kansas City can reverse their momentum, but after watching their horrid defense get shredded by the New York Jets, consider me dubious. The Chiefs are not going to stop anyone defensively, so it comes down to Alex Smith and Kareem Hunt winning shoot outs. Smith is not known for throwing the long ball, yet he did so effectively against the Jets and it still wasn’t enough to get the win. Playing at home will help, but Philip Rivers and Derek Carr do this team no favors. At least the Chiefs end the season against Miami and Denver. My opinion is that Kansas City goes 3-1 to finish out the year, losing to the Chargers, and ends with a record of 9-7. Not good enough.

The Oakland Raiders play Kansas City, the Chargers, the Eagles, and the Cowboys. I’m not sure they win another game this season. Those are four tough opponents, with Dallas looking like the most winnable game. I’ll give Oakland one victory, leaving them at 7-9 and out of this debate. Enter the Los Angeles Chargers.

The Chargers were my preseason surprise pick to make the playoffs and I’m not backing off. They get the Redskins at home, followed by Kansas City, the Jets, and the Raiders. Can Rivers lead his team to ten wins by winning all four? Yes he can. Its more likely that the team goes 3-1 to finish the year. If they tie with Kansas City at 9-7, then the Chiefs win the tiebreaker in nearly every scenario I can think of after splitting head to head. One of these two teams needs to win the rest of its games. That is momentum.

Next: 2017 NFL Picks, score predictions for Week 14

Perhaps 9-7 wins the AFC West, but every game is must win for Kansas City and Los Angeles. Since they play one another, both can not win all four remaining games. The Chargers have a tougher schedule on paper, but we know that means far less than momentum. How a team is currently playing and winning determines most everything. Three straight for Los Angeles is confidence enough to keep winning. Four straight losses, after a stellar offensive day, is enough to doom the Chiefs. If you can’t win when your quarterback has his best game of the season, you are not likely to make the playoffs.