NFL 2017: Best picks against the spread (ATS), Week 14

Vegas now thinks every team is even in NFL Week 14, but there are a few outliers. These are your best picks against the spread (ATS) for NFL 2017 Week 14!

The lines are small and the matchups fierce, but we found the outliers in NFL Week 14. Dan is rolling as the season winds down, but Todd is holding his own. Which teams deserve your money this week?

NFL Week 14 is about miss matches. Winners are obvious in more than one game! Your best picks against the spread. Here are the lines for Week 14 via OddsShark.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL 2017 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

NFL 2017 Record ATS

Dan’s record ATS: 15-11
Todd’s record ATS: 10-16

Of the 16 games in Week 14, two lines are off the board because of questionable quarterback injuries. Eight of the remaining 14 games have lines of three points or less. Only one game, Monday night’s battle between New England and Miami, has one team giving more than a touchdown. Teams normally separate themselves late in the year, but this may be an exception of randomly well-matched clubs.

Todd Salem’s NFL Week 14 Picks

Once again last week, I covered my two-team teaser and lost my simple, individual selection because I clearly don’t know what I’m doing.

Todd’s Teaser:
Cincinnati Bengals pick’em (from -6) vs. Chicago Bears
Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 (from -3.5) vs. Oakland Raiders

Cincinnati is one of the heaviest favorites of the weekend, which says something. The Bengals are banged up and still questionable at full strength, but the Bears are one of the worst teams in the league in recent weeks. Their offense is among the worst in football. I don’t see them winning on the road, where they are 1-4 so far this season.

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As for this AFC West matchup, imagine if last week’s Chiefs-Jets game was played again but Kansas City’s opponent had a worse defense. That is what this Raiders matchup should be like. I don’t know if that means KC will come out on top this time, though it is at home. But I feel good getting points in a tease. The Chiefs are becoming slightly underrated because of their current slide. But everyone outside of Cleveland pulls out of a slide like this eventually. Last week was a first indication.

Baltimore Ravens +5.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers

I know Pittsburgh is good, but isn’t it also sneakily not great? There are so few elite teams in the AFC this season that the Steelers are either the first or second favorites bar none, but they don’t instill endless confidence. The most obvious proof of this is their 6-6 record against the spread. They have one of the largest differences between their real-life record and ATS record in the entire sport. They are also 6-1 in one-score games, a stat that tends to normalize over a large enough sample regardless of team. Giving 5.5 to this surging Ravens team feels like too much.

Dan Salem’s NFL Week 14 Picks

Dan’s Teaser:
Green Bay Packers +3 (from -3) at Cleveland Browns
Arizona Cardinals +9 (from +3) vs. Tennessee Titans

I love to toss teams into my teaser that are getting points when it feels inappropriate. Green Bay is infinitely better than Cleveland, with or without Aaron Rodgers. Don’t get caught up on the fact that the Browns are at home. The Packers are going to win this game, especially since they are still in the playoff chase. Green Bay actually gets three points in my teaser, so this is a great pick.

The second game in my teaser was an easy addition. Arizona is getting points at home because Tennessee has a much better record thus far. But the Titans have been sneaky bad this season and are not winning games by many points. I find these two teams to be quite evenly matched, so getting nine points with the home team is excellent. It doesn’t matter if the Cardinals actually win. They just need to keep it around a touchdown.

Next: 2018 NFL Mock Draft: Browns make surprise pick at No. 1

New York Jets -1 at Denver Broncos

This is more a pick against the Broncos, than one in favor of the Jets. New York has been clicking on offense lately, even against some top level defenses like the Carolina Panthers. One thing we know for sure is that Denver has a bad defense right now. But their offense has been pretty inept as well. The Jets are not a great team, but they have eaten up mediocre teams all season. With Denver done and the Jets still technically alive in the playoff chase, this game feels out of reach for the Broncos. I’m willing to give up a point, because New York will win by a field goal at worst.

Todd Salem: In a slight surprise in my mind, the Broncos are also the worst team in the NFL right now according to DVOA!