Patriots vs. Steelers: Preview, score prediction for Week 15

The New England Patriots travel to face the Pittsburgh Steelers in one of the most anticipated matchups of the season. Who emerges victorious?

This is the long-awaited game everybody had circled on their calendar. Through the course of the schedule, certain match-ups stick out as season-defying. The Pittsburgh Steelers look to seek revenge from the 2016 AFC Championship Game, a game where the New England Patriots made quick work of Pittsburgh on both sides of the ball. The stakes are well-known, with the winner of Sunday afternoon’s game positioning themselves as front-runner in the AFC.

However, this game carries a sense of a measuring stick for both teams. After stumbling on the road on Monday night football against the Dolphins, New England looks to see if they are able to bounce back from a terrible outing in a year where they look more vulnerable than usual. Pittsburgh, on an eight game winning streak coming into week fifteen, looks to see if they’re finally able to out-smart the big bad wolf that has run the conference for the better part of the millennium.

If you’re a fan of either team, you’re probably aware of the history between the two. The Steelers poor record of 2-8 in their last ten games against New England stick out like a sore thumb. Will the Patriots continue their run of dominance on the road? Despite fans favoring a hot Steelers team at home, oddsmakers in Las Vegas have New England as three-point favorites on the road.

Let’s break down everything you need to know for Steelers-Patriots.

Expect Fireworks

Despite still being ranked sixth in total defense, the Steelers have looked vulnerable the last two games with the absences of Joe Haden and Ryan Shazier, allowing offenses to pick them apart on the ground or through the air. The good news? Defensive coordinator Keith Butler told Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette “He looks good to me,” when addressing Haden’s status for Sunday. A potential Haden return will be music to the ears of a Steelers secondary that has had to deal with Coty Sensabaugh being tortured on the right side of the field.

For as many woes on defense for the Steelers exists one for the Patriots as well. New England currently averages 374.6 yards allowed per game, good enough for bottom four in the league. However, the Patriots defense has strengthened since the beginning of the year, and has looked the part of a typical Patriots defense as of late.

However, both defenses have yet to face an offense like the other possesses. Brady and company are able to move the ball down field like clockwork, and Roethlisberger has regained the ability and confidence to make big plays happen at any time. These two teams have seen both the ups and downs on defense this season, and Sunday shouldn’t stop that roller-coaster.

Jedi Mind Tricks

Often overlooked from a fan’s perspective is coaching. Bill Belichick has built a resume that finds himself in the conversation for greatest of all time, and that’s by no accident. The small attention to details, the numerous adjustments made before halftime even hits and many other things are a big part of why the Patriots are as successful as they are. Mike Tomlin on the other hand is known for being a coach that his players rally around, finding himself as more of a leader rather than a genius at x’s and o’s.

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What do both coaches have in common? Mental toughness. Despite the Patriots and Steelers looking drastically different on both sides of the ball, how many times has each team pulled through when they needed a play? Great teams find ways to win close games, as both Pittsburgh and New England have shown thus far.

When two coaches like Tomlin and Belichick meet, it’s often similar to playing multi-dimensional chess. If something isn’t working, Belichick won’t waste his time trying to make a square peg fit in a round hole (attempted just 10 rushes in their game last week at Miami). Tomlin, on the other hand, likes to gamble and keep all options on the table (notorious for going for two, faking punts when needed, trick plays etc.).

Sunday should be a treat for football fans everywhere, with every style of football (and coaching) in play. Can the wizardry of Belichick’s mind prove too much to overcome for the Steelers? Or will Tomlin’s fire and will-power rally his troops save the day for Pittsburgh?

New England’s Keys to the Game

• Feed Gronkowski. This might be a tad overstated, but Gronk has been the kryptonite to the Steelers defense since his arrival in the league. With Ryan Shazier out, the Steelers speed and coverage skills dip tremendously at the linebacker position, something that will be duly noted in the Patriots gameplan.
• Spread the ball. It’s no secret the Steelers have tackling issues at all depths of the field, and with weapons such as Deion Lewis, Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan, the last thing Steelers defenders want is an open field with those guys carrying the ball. Open space is the best space for New England.

Pittsburgh’s Keys to the Game

• Mix it up on defense. Tom Brady has seen every coverage and blitz known to man, and the last thing Pittsburgh wants is a repeat of the 2016 AFC Championship Game, where Brady picked apart a defense that remained in zone coverage for majority of the game. Keeping your coverages disguised and constantly changing looks is the best way to limit Brady.
• Finish in the red zone. The only thing worse than a turnover is settling for a field goal when paydirt is in sight. Teams who beat New England do so by converting drives into touchdowns, something Pittsburgh is known to struggle with. There’s too much talent on both sides of the ball for the Steelers not to punch it in more times than not.

Prediction

We have the pleasure of getting to see the two best teams in the conference face off in the middle of December. Heinz Field will play host to a playoff atmosphere, and given everything on the line, it essentially can be viewed as one. As stated earlier, this game should be a shootout. Given the current state of both defenses and two quarterbacks who can fire it up when called upon, points shouldn’t be hard to come by.

It’s likely New England sticks to their game-plan from last time: Double team Antonio Brown, stuff the line of scrimmage, and make somebody else beat you. Pittsburgh didn’t have the pleasure of playing with a healthy Le’Veon Bell, Martavis Bryant or JuJu Smith-Schuster the last time these two played, a big difference in terms of game-planning and scheming. New England needs to be ready to take in a heavy dose of Bell, both through the air and on the ground as well.

This game, like many with two more-than-capable offenses with weapons across the board, should come down to who has the ball last. Brady looks to have another stellar outing, especially with Shazier out and Haden possibly not playing. Roethlisberger, on the other hand, looks to take keep pace with a Patriots defense that just allowed 263 yards and 3 touchdowns to Jay Cutler. It’s a close game in Pittsburgh, living up to the hype.

The teams exchange turnovers and head into halftime tied. After a dull start to the second half, the Steelers strike midway through the fourth quarter to take the lead, a lead that will remain intact as the clock hits zero. Part 1 of 2 goes to Pittsburgh, thanks in part to the high running emotions of playing at home with their leader not able to suit up.

Final Score: New England Patriots: 26, Pittsburgh Steelers: 30