Bills vs. Patriots: Preview, score prediction for Week 16

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

The Buffalo Bills come into Sunday’s Week 16 contest with the New England Patriots on a bit of a roll. Having won three out of their last four contests, the Bulls most recent victory was a 24-16 win over the Miami Dolphins last Sunday.

Prior to that, they took part in what could be considered a “Snow Bowl” edging the Indianapolis Colts 13-7. Tyrod Taylor appears to be back to his true form and his performance against the Dolphins showed it. Going 17-of-29 for 274 yards and a touchdown, it appeared as though he found his groove again.

The New England Patriots defeated the Steelers in a nailbiting 27-24 victory that had everything from head-scratching playcalls to jaw-dropping moments. The win put the Patriots at 11-3 and vaulted them to the No. 1 seed in the AFC. In addition, they won the AFC East for the ninth time in a row, adding yet another conference championship shirt and hat to the collection.

Tom Brady had a pedestrian day by his standards going 22-of-35 for 198 yards, a touchdown and an interception on the afternoon. Rob Gronkowski was perhaps the biggest star of the show, catching nine passes for 168 yards. It was a performance that turned back the clock, reminding many Patriots fans of the Gronk of old.

These two teams come in at No. 1 and 2 in the AFC East with 11-3 and 8-6 records respectively. The Bills are fighting for a playoff spot in what has become a crowded field.

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For the Bills, they can beat you in many ways offensively. Taylor can beat you with both his arm and his feet, and the Patriots need to be aware of that. When Taylor is at his best, he makes challenging throws on the run look pedestrian and shows no fear in the pocket. LeSean McCoy is a big reason for their success as well. Last week against Miami, he did not have his best game. He carried the ball 20 times for only 50 yards. He did have a touchdown on the day, contributing to the Buffalo offense.

Defensively, the Bills will be in for a challenge come Sunday. If they want to beat the Patriots, they have to make sure Rob Gronkowski is covered. When these two teams played each other two weeks ago, he had nine catches for 147 yards.

Last week, Pittsburgh made the mistake of single-covering him, which allowed him to rack up nine catches for 168 yards. Buffalo will need to jam him at the line of scrimmage and maybe even put another defender on him to take him out of the gameplan entirely. With that in mind, New England has other weapons at their disposal, and the Bills need ot be aware of that.

Offensively for the Patriots, they need to get the running backs involved. Gronk with certainly be a viable option, but Buffalo will be looking for that. One of the things they did well in their game against Miami was get the running backs involved. Dion Lewis amassed five catches for 50 yards while Rex Burkhead (five catches, 45 yards) and James White (three catches, 11 yards and a touchdown) all did their part.

In the Pittsburgh game, the Patriots backs did not have as big an impact. Lewis was the leading pass-catcher out of the backfield, catching one pass for 13 yards. Screen and short-yardage pass plays would be ideal in a situation like this.

Defensively, the Patriots need to contain LeSean McCoy. Last week, Le’Veon Bell ran all over the Patriots. Carrying the ball 24 times for 117 yards and a touchdown, he exposed the Patriots’ front seven. They need to focus on clogging up the middle of the running lanes as well as being more patient when making the tackle. If they do not do that, they could be in for a long afternoon. New England should let Taylor have a little leeway. Their pass defense has been better as of late so they should be able to take their chances.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: New England -11.5
Moneyline: New England –600, Buffalo +440
Over/Under: 47.5

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Prediction

Buffalo has always given New England fits and I do not expect that to change. However, the firepower of the New England offense will be too much for Buffalo. They will get pressure on Tom Brady, making it a close first half, but in the end, the Patriots will pull away.

Final Score: New England Patriots: 31, Buffalo Bills: 17