Favorites won outright in every game last week, so guess who we’re eyeing in NFL 2017 Week 16? Your Best Picks Against the Spread (ATS) for the penultimate week of the season.
Four of the five huge favorites from last week covered easily, which doesn’t normally happen. Only Philadelphia failed to win by enough. You could argue whether New Orleans’ win over the Jets was technically an easy cover, but that is arguing phrasing. The Saints won by 12 points. Expect the favorites to keep rolling in NFL 2017 Week 16.
The penultimate week of the season is no time for funny business. We know who’s good and who is not. Your best picks against the spread. Here are the lines for Week 16 via OddsShark.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL 2017 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
NFL 2017 Record ATS
Dan’s record ATS: 17-13
Todd’s record ATS: 13-17
This week, there are going to be at least half a dozen favorites with similar spreads to cover, and maybe more. Teasers will be flying around like dropped napkins in a gust. Even the Chicago Bears are giving a touchdown. Week 16!
Todd Salem’s NFL Week 16 Picks
Todd’s Teaser:
Los Angeles Rams -0.5 (from -6.5) at Tennessee Titans
New York Giants +10.5 (from +4.5) at Arizona Cardinals
I’m a little worried about the Rams in this spot because they are coming off a huge high, and Tennessee is a different team at home. Throwing LA in a teaser means it just has to win outright, though, against arguably the worst potential playoff team in the AFC.
As for the Giants, they still stink despite a miraculous offensive showing last week against a Philadelphia defense that looked like it was taking a week off. Having said that, Arizona isn’t the type of team to defeat any foe by double digits. This is especially true considering the Cardinals are turning back to Drew Stanton at quarterback. At this point, the Giants may even win this one straight-up, though I’d stay far away from the money line.
New Orleans Saints -5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
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Just like the LA Rams game, I’m a tad worried about this pick, but the Week 16 slate is tricky. On the one hand, I love the Saints at home here, looking for revenge and only having to cover 5 points. However, the Falcons are surprisingly one of the best road teams in the NFL. They are even 2-2 on the road against potential playoff teams. I take solace in the fact that they haven’t beaten anyone on the road as good as New Orleans.
And this is more than revenge for Week 14’s loss. The Saints still need this win to win the NFC South. Even though they have been treading out in front of the pack for much of the season, Carolina and Atlanta never went away. All three may make the playoffs regardless, but each covets the division title for sure, and New Orleans has the major leg up right now.
Dan Salem’s NFL Week 16 Picks
Dan’s Teaser:
Carolina Panthers -4 (from -10) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buffalo Bills +19 (from +13) vs. New England Patriots
Tampa Bay played Atlanta close last week, but the Panthers are better, especially at home. I did not care for the initial line, but giving up only four points in a teaser is sweet. Carolina needs a win to remain in the driver’s seat for the playoffs. The Buccaneers simply want to escape without injury. This game is likely over by halftime, with an easy Panthers win secured.
The flipside is the matchup of Buffalo and New England. I fully expect the Patriots to win at home, even if the Bills desperately need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. But New England has not been dominating anyone these past few weeks. I was hesitant to take only 13 points, because you never know. Yet 19 points for the Bills is too good to pass up. They are a good football team and will not get blown out. Its a perfect pick to finalize this teaser.
Next: 2018 NFL Mock Draft: Giants start baking
Jacksonville Jaguars -4 at San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco has had a good run with Jimmy Garoppolo taking over quarterback duties. Yet all good things eventually end, and the 49ers winning streak is about to. Jacksonville may be on the road, but they are an excellent team and a playoff team. These are not the Tennessee Titans, sorry not sorry. The Jaguars win and do so by a touchdown. Give up the four points and back the favorite. NFL favorites rolled through the league last week and I expect a similar story in week 16.