2018 NFL Draft: Two QB prospects are better than Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold
The 2018 NFL Draft process has already started, with Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen being on the minds of many, but there are two quarterbacks better.
Every year there are some question marks surrounding quarterback prospects in the NFL Draft. After all, they are building block for a franchise. This season is no different. Entering the college football season, there were three guys with more NFL buzz than any other prospect: USC’s Sam Darnold, UCLA’s Josh Rosen, and Wyoming’s Josh Allen.
Allen is a 6-5, 233-pound specimen who has since played himself out of the conversation, for now, after completing just 56 percent of his passes and tossing just 13 touchdowns with six interceptions. The former two quarterbacks, while still considered the top guys, also saw their stock dip.
Darnold, for example, had more passing attempts this season than he did the previous year, but finished with fewer touchdowns and a worse completion percentage. As a matter of fact, he threw at least one interception in 10 of his 13 games played, including a three-game stretch where he threw at least two picks in each contest. Rosen didn’t fare any better. In at least three games, he threw two or more interceptions, including three against Arizona in a 47-30 loss.
Still, there’s little doubt that Darnold and Rosen will be the first two names called on draft day. However, they should not be the first two quarterbacks off the board. There are two guys that have been consistently great, two players who improved year to year and jump off the screen with exceptional talent every single Saturday. Those are the men who should hear their names called first.
They are Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield.
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma (6-1, 220 pounds)
There are some things that may turn a lot of fans off when it comes to their team drafting Mayfield. He’s nowhere near the NFL prototype as far as size, but as the cliché argument goes, neither were Drew Brees or Russell Wilson.
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While his antics may dock him a couple of points, that kind of passion can be a galvanizing to a team. It’s that fire and brashness that guys like Phillip Rivers and Cam Newton play with as well. For Mayfield and his Sooners teammates, his passion wasn’t a problem. He was able to rally guys and play great ball especially when it mattered most.
In fact, Mayfield has thrown more touchdowns (11) when down by seven or fewer point in the fourth quarter than any of the top prospects. His improved arm strength and accuracy is part of the reason that his stock has surged and why he deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as Rosen and Darnold. Another major element of Mayfield’s game is his athleticism, which allows him to move around and escape from pressure. But he’s not to be mistaken for a running quarterback — he looks to throw.
One of the areas he’s excelled at when it comes to passing is on third downs. Over the past two seasons combined, Mayfield has completed over 63 percent of third down throws, better than Darnold and Rosen in that same time span. Mayfield has a lot of similarities to Tony Romo, and while he may be a bit shorter, there’s no reason why can’t be a franchise QB. The Giants, Saints and Steelers are three teams that would be great for Mayfield.
Lamar Jackson, Louisville (6-3, 205 pounds)
The first thing that may come to mind when you think about Jackson is his ability to run, and he does run exceptionally well. That ability is what earned him the 2016 Heisman Trophy and deservedly so. Jackson is an electrifying player in the same way that Michael Vick, Johnny Manziel, and Deshaun Watson were before coming out. The one thing they have in common other than eye-popping numbers is they were all first-round picks.
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While their draft position should help him, their success (or lack thereof) shouldn’t reflect negatively on Jackson. He’s rushed for nearly 4,000 yards and nearly 50 touchdowns for Louisville. Still, even with that comes the stigma that running quarterbacks don’t translate to the NFL. Over the years under the former Falcons head coach Bobby Petrino, Jackson has consistently shown improvement as a passer. In fact, CBS Sports draft expert Chris Trapasso believes Jackson’s refined passing is what makes him the best quarterback prospect in the draft:
"“Jackson is one refined quarterback prospect. I’m telling you. Way more often than not, he swiftly avoided pressure like it was white noise around him, then uncorked a rocket 20 or 30 yards downfield into the hands of a tightly covered receiver… Arm strength? Check. Pocket drifting? Check. Accuracy to all levels of the field? Check. Right now, Jackson is the best quarterback prospect in the 2018 class, and that’s even without his running capabilities.”"
There are numbers to back up Jackson’s improved pocket passing. Over his three years a starter, Jackson’s completion percentage has gone from 54 percent to a career-high 60 percent. On third down, he’s not great, but he’s okay with a 56 percent success rate, which is still better than Rosen’s 52 percent. Jackson has also shown the ability to provide a score when his team needs it most. When his team has been down, Jackson has mustered up 20 total touchdowns to just two interceptions.
In the fourth quarter, Jackson has thrown seven touchdowns to just one interception. Jackson accomplished all of this while playing against two of college football’s top-ranked pass defenses in Florida State and Clemson. Against those two teams, he threw for a combined total of 473 yards four touchdowns and two picks. Jackson has yet to reach his full potential as a passer. Thus, in the right system that would nurture his talents, he could be special. Teams like Jacksonville, Arizona and New York Jets could use some of Jackson’s talents.
Next: 2018 NFL Mock Draft: Giants start baking
As the draft approaches, there will be stocks that continue to rise and fall. But the production and electrifying play of both Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield should more than justify hearing their names being called early in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft.