Week 17 is notorious for screwy lines, but the trends speak for themselves. We know who’s playing to win. Your best picks against the spread (ATS) for the final week of NFL 2017.
Some notable against-the-spread records heading into the final week of the regular season:
The New York Jets are 9-5-1, the best record for any non-winning straight-up team. In fact, they are the only team outside the playoff picture with an ATS record better than 8-7. That 8-7 non-playoff team is San Francisco, who is 5-1 straight-up and 4-2 ATS in its last six.
On the other end, Atlanta and Seattle, who are battling for the NFC’s final playoff spot, are 6-9 and 6-8-1 respectively. That puts them in the company of the New York Giants (6-9), the most disappointing team of the 2017 season.
In some other trends, Chargers games always go under (4-11 hitting the over) because they aren’t as good as we think. Bears games always go under as well (4-11) because they stink on offense. Rams games have been solid overs (10-5) because they are the surprise team of the year, especially offensively. Green Bay has also been a safe over bet (10-5) because everyone believed it would fall off a cliff without Aaron Rodgers. Maybe that should have happened, but the Packers have hit the over in four of their last five games and six of their last eight.
Now its time for your best picks against the spread as the NFL 2017 season comes to a close. Here are the lines for Week 17 via OddsShark.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL 2017 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
NFL 2017 Record ATS
Dan’s record ATS: 17-15
Todd’s record ATS: 14-18
Week 17 is a tricky gamble, trying to figure out which teams will be playing to win, who wants rest before the playoffs, who has already begun their vacation, etc. Confounding lines are the result. Philadelphia is getting a field goal at home? Jacksonville is a four-point underdog to a trash Titans team? Same with Kansas City and Denver? New England is giving nearly 16, having already clinched a bye? Interesting nugget: every game this season with a spread of at least 15.5 points has included the Patriots, the Jets, or both!
Todd Salem’s NFL Week 17 Picks
Todd’s Teaser:
Seattle Seahawks -1.5 (from -7.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals
New Orleans Saints -1 (from -7) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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This feels like the most obvious teaser of the weekend, which has me worried. But it also looks like a damn good bet! Seattle is playing for a playoff spot. Though it has a late afternoon game, so does Atlanta, so everything will still be up in the air. As for the Saints, they could fall anywhere between the third seed and the fifth seed in the NFC depending on what happens here. That could mean hosting the Panthers. It could mean traveling to Los Angeles or Carolina. This is an important match. Both teams play weak opponents, with Seattle even playing at home.
Washington Redskins -3 at New York Giants
The Washington Redskins have nothing to play for, but that gives them a leg up on New York. The Giants need to lose to secure the second pick in the 2018 draft. I had gotten on NY big time for its lack of direction and benching of rookie Davis Webb. The team needed to see him in action while also losing games. It did just fine losing games without Webb’s services. Giants games are unwatchable. That should continue one more week as veterans play out the string.
Dan Salem’s NFL Week 17 Picks
Dan’s Teaser:
Chicago Bears +18 (from +12) at Minnesota Vikings
Pittsburgh Steelers EVEN (from -6) vs Cleveland Browns
I’m not quite sure what the Vikings are playing for this weekend, so this line feels fishy. Minnesota is not going to blow out the Bears, even at home. Chicago is bad, but in the final week of the season they can keep it within 18 points. Its dangerous otherwise, but I love this bet in my teaser.
I also love the Steelers’ chances of defeating the Browns at home. Cleveland is going to end the season winless, but they could play Pittsburgh close. That’s why I’m putting this game in my teaser. The Steelers want the win to keep their chances at homefield advantage alive, but more importantly they won’t risk ending the season with a loss to the league’s worst team. That kind of momentum can derail their playoff aspirations. All Pittsburgh needs to do is win. I like those odds.
Next: 2018 NFL Mock Draft: Jets land QB, Cowboys replace Dez
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 at Tennessee Titans
I’m a firm believer in momentum heading into the playoffs, especially for a team like Jacksonville. They can’t afford to end the year with a loss, plus they can play spoiler to their division rival. Normally I’d hesitate to pick this matchup, but the Jaguars are getting more than a field goal. That is the sweet spot. They don’t even need to win, but merely play a tight game. This is a solid bet for week 17.