San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Los Angeles Rams are in the extremely rare position of being able to rest players for their regular-season finale with the San Francisco 49ers as they prepare for a first playoff game since 2004.
Locked in as NFC West champions but with no hope of earning a first-round bye, head coach Sean McVay has opted to rest quarterback Jared Goff, running back Todd Gurley and star defensive lineman Aaron Donald. That decision has them set as underdogs to face a 49ers team that has won five of their last six games and is already being pencilled by many as a playoff contender for next year.
The Niners have been transformed since Jimmy Garoppolo took the helm under center, the former New England Patriots quarterback producing a string of excellent performances, including shredding the league’s best defense in last week’s 44-33 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. With the Brian Hoyer-led 49ers having put 39 on the Rams in Week 3, a Los Angeles team resting starters should not daunt Garoppolo in any way.
A sixth win in seven may not heighten the buzz surrounding the Niners given McVay’s decision, and the greater concern will be how a potential defeat affects the Rams’ momentum going into the postseason.
Keys to the Game
If Rams backup Sean Mannion is to have success against a 49ers pass defense ranked last in the NFL by Football Outsiders’ DVOA, then he would be wise to target Dontae Johnson. Johnson has consistently struggled this season, though he did have a pick-six tipped into his hands against the Jags, but he has been a liability in terms of giving up big plays and penalties.
By contrast, rookie corner Ahkello Witherspoon has made strides almost every week since entering the starting lineup and, given Johnson’s issues, his performance and that of K’Waun Williams in the slot will be crucial in the 49ers keeping the likes of Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins at bay.
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San Francisco’s pass rush has found it difficult to make any sort of consistent impact, so the key to preventing Mannion from having success will be to maintain an excellent upturn in play against the run, which has seen the 49ers not allow 100 yards rushing since Week 10. Not letting Malcolm Brown end that streak should enable the pass defense to be aggressive against a one-dimensional Mannion and add to the three interceptions it recorded against Blake Bortles and the Jags.
On the other side of the ball the Rams will have to find a way to pressure Garoppolo without Donald, a week after Jacksonville had only one sack of the 49ers signal-caller. Still, with the Rams’ pass defense ranked third in the league by DVOA, balance will be crucial for the 49ers.
Thankfully Carlos Hyde has a history of success against the Rams, and had 84 yards and two touchdowns in their meeting in Week 3, while Matt Breida ran extremely well in Week 16, so the Niners can be hopeful of a strong performance versus a Los Angeles run defense rated 18th in the NFL by DVOA.
Odds
Point Spread: San Francisco -4
Moneyline: San Francisco -200 Los Angeles +170
Over/Under: 43.5
Next: San Francisco 49ers: 3 Bold predictions vs. Rams in Week 17
Prediction
The difference between a full strength Rams team and one missing Goff, Gurley and Donald cannot be understated. This is not a game the Rams appear to have much interest in winning. Garoppolo and the 49ers on the other hand, don’t want the season to end but at least want it to conclude on a high. The Niners ease to victory and go into 2018 as the sexy pick for next season.
Final Score: San Francisco 49ers: 26, Los Angeles Rams: 13