Cleveland Browns: Sam Darnold becomes draft wild card

The surprise declaration by Sam Darnold to enter the 2018 NFL Draft becomes just one more variable for the Cleveland Browns.

The good news for the Cleveland Browns is there are a lot of talented quarterbacks in the 2018 NFL Draft. The bad news is there are a lot of talented quarterbacks in the 2018 NFL Draft. The USC quarterback defied expectations that he’d stay in school for another, opting to bolt for the NFL after his redshirt sophomore season. This means the Browns, who control the first and fourth overall pick in this draft will have three quarterbacks likely to be selected in the top ten to choose from; Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield.

As the quarterback of the Trojans, Darnold wasn’t exactly anonymous but he truly captured the imagination of so many fanbases when he turned in a remarkable performance in last year’s Rose Bowl. In the game against Penn State, the redshirt freshman threw for 453 yards and five touchdowns en route to a 52-49 victory in what was to that point the most exciting bowl of the year. The national title game between Clemson and Alabama a week later had plenty of drama and excitement of its own.

Many immediately dubbed Darnold as the franchise quarterback prospect for the 2018 draft class even after Darnold only started nine games to that point. His sophomore season wasn’t quite as impressive. USC lost talent, particularly on the offensive line and its receivers and Darnold’s numbers dipped. Darnold had the dubious distinction of leading the nation in turnovers.

After basically telling anyone that would listen all year that he intended to stay for his junior year, Darnold decided to go ahead and make the jump to the NFL, causing a ripple effect and making it likely that three quarterbacks could go in the top ten, possibly the top five.

More from NFL Spin Zone

The good for Darnold is he’s athletic, can make plays on the move, has a good arm, can be very accurate and people who come in contact with the still 20-year old quarterback all seem to adore him. He’s shown remarkable toughness, taking an incredible beating this year including the Cotton Bowl where Ohio State’s defensive line seemed to hit him on each and every play. Darnold also has significant potential to grow.

The bad with Darnold is he’s got a long way to go. And most everything when it comes to Darnold is talking about what he can be rather than what he is. In that regard, he’s similar to Pat Mahomes, the 10th overall pick in last year’s draft. It’s worth noting that Mahomes had an elite arm where Darnold does not. Darnold’s throwing motion is long and looping — although it’s not slow — his footwork is incredibly inconsistent, and his decision making is, to put it bluntly, bad. There are real questions about where he is in his ability to read a defense as well, though he’ll have his opportunity to prove his acumen in the draft process.

It’s important to note that unlike a player like Rosen who has basically been a quarterback since he came out of the womb, Darnold hasn’t been. In high school, he was a tight end before he was a quarterback. Darnold isn’t the product of quarterback academies, endless camps and private coaches as is increasingly the case in this day and age.

The thing that stands out most with Darnold from the negative side is turnovers. In 24 starts, Darnold has thrown 22 interceptions and 23 fumbles, losing 16 of the fumbles. Some of the fumbles are due to circumstances that weren’t Darnold’s fault and just end up on his box score, but it’s still an issue. And some of it is simply a technique issue, needing to hold the ball closer to his body, keep two hands on it and so forth.

So on one hand, Darnold is taller than Mayfield, more mobility than Rosen and is bigger than both of them with the growing into his body. Those two factors just from a physical perspective could help him pass the eye test.

The problem is the Browns would be going from DeShone Kizer, who led the NFL in turnovers in his rookie year to Darnold, who just led the nation in turnovers in college. The Browns turnover problems aren’t Darnold’s fault, but those two facts could influence the decision of which quarterback to take.

And as bad as Kizer was this past season, so much of that goes back to his head coach, Hue Jackson. New general manager John Dorsey — the same general manager who traded up to get Mahomes for the Kansas City Chiefs — has to decide if he’s willing to give the similarly raw Darnold to Jackson.

The best thing for a quarterback like Darnold, Kizer or Mahomes is a stable environment, where the coaching staff is likely remain in place and the voices in his ear from a coaching standpoint remain consistent. It’s really difficult to believe that Jackson, coming off of an 0-16 is anything more than a lame duck. That becomes baked in to any decision at quarterback with the possible caveat that they hire an offensive coordinator who will be working with the quarterbacks so much, they are likely to keep them post-Jackson.

ARLINGTON, TX – DECEMBER 29: Sam Darnold #14 of the USC Trojans looks to throw against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the first half of the 82nd Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic between USC and Ohio State at AT&T Stadium on December 29, 2017 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)

Darnold shouldn’t see the field until 2019 beyond preseason or garbage time. Coincidentally, Kizer should have received the same treatment last year. Instead, Jackson cut anything resembling a veteran quarterback, named Kizer the starter and handled him so poorly, he’s been almost given up for dead by the organization. Jackson has shown he can’t be trusted when it comes to handling a developmental rookie quarterback and a player like Darnold has the potential to be a source of tension between Dorsey and Jackson.

Darnold is a redshirt sophomore, as was Kizer, which has a terrifying track record. To this point, the most successful redshirt sophomore quarterbacks in NFL history are Michael Vick and Jameis Winston. The failures include players like Johnny Manziel, Tommy Maddox and Blaine Gabbert. None of that means Darnold can’t be a terrific quarterback in the NFL, but it does at least make the case experience matters at the quarterback position. As an example, Darnold has started 24 games as opposed to Rosen’s 30 or Mayfield’s 48. The overwhelming majority of successful quarterbacks in the NFL were three-year starters.

More from Cleveland Browns

If the Browns don’t have any interest in Darnold and are looking more at Rosen or Mayfield after a trade down, Darnold’s entrance into the draft could be beneficial. For all of the reasons the Browns appear a poor fit for Darnold, the New York Giants could be a great situation for him. They’re going to hire a new coach, so they’ll obviously have him for presumably a couple years. That coach also has Eli Manning finishing out his career, so they have the stable environment he needs and a quarterback that can play ahead of him.

That would mean that two quarterback would come off the board with only one more pick before the Browns pick again. Whether the Indianapolis Colts would pick defensive end Bradley Chubb, running back Saquon Barkley or someone else, the Browns at worst would have their selection of the entire group of quarterbacks as well as every position player in the draft, save one, which is a good place to be in for a team that’s coming off of an 0-16 season and needs talent. They will also have some lucrative trade opportunities if that is of interest to them as well.

Right this second, it still appears as though Josh Rosen is going to be the top pick of the draft. The Giants take Sam Darnold at two and Baker Mayfield ends up going fifth to the Denver Broncos, who will get to spend a week coaching him at the Reese’s Senior Bowl. Maybe a trade happens that changes things, but four months out, this appears to be the likeliest scenario. Rosen’s biggest attraction in addition his talent is that he can play now. Even if Hue Jackson is a terrible head coach, Rosen has the base skill set necessary to go out there and function, which becomes extremely important and a potential selling point for the post Hue era.

Next: 2018 NFL Playoffs: Picks, predictions for Divisional Round

Sam Darnold is going to be a divisive topic all the way up until draft day as there are plenty of reasons to argue for or against taking him. While fans and media have that debate, the Cleveland Browns may have the same conversations until they set their final board. Given the Browns track record with quarterbacks, going for the riskiest play at quarterback might not be advisable, but when it comes right down to it, this quarterback selection is a marriage and they’ve got to pick the one they’re willing to go with to the altar. Darnold wouldn’t be my choice but it’s not unreasonable to see how the Browns could.