NFL Playoffs 2018: Best teaser picks against the spread (ATS), Divisional Round

Picking all four Divisional Round games is crazy, unless you move the lines by 10 points. Teasers are well worth your wager. Best picks for NFL Playoffs 2018.

Thanks to two outright upsets and no favorite winning by more than seven points, wildcard weekend was a teaser’s dream. Of our four-team teasers put out, Todd’s was successful after reducing it thanks to the Kansas City push. Dan’s four-teamer hit as well, as all four underdogs covered easily. In fact, all four underdogs covered their normal spreads, meaning selecting all four in individual wagers would have paid out handsomely.

Its now the divisional round, meaning the stakes are higher and the competition more fierce. Yet the lines are just as sweet for wagers! Do you back the home teams or the road teams? We are picking all four games in a ten-point teaser. Your best teaser picks against the spread.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the NFL Playoffs 2018 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Records ATS:

Dan’s playoff teaser record: 1-0
Todd’s playoff teaser record: 1-0

Dan’s regular season record ATS: 18-16
Todd’s regular season record ATS: 14-20

No one would ever advise creating a four-team teaser, but when they work, it all seems so simple! Let’s run it back for the divisional round. Lines this week come courtesy of ESPN. We’ll move each game 10 points for the four-team teaser.

Todd’s Teaser:

Philadelphia Eagles +13 (from +3) vs. Atlanta Falcons
New England Patriots -3.5 (from -13.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (from -7) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Minnesota Vikings +6.5 (from -3.5) vs. New Orleans Saints

I had more trouble this week than I did last week, specifically in the NFC. I don’t trust the Nick-Foles-led Eagles any more than the next bettor. However, Philadelphia is a home underdog here against the spastic and inconsistent Atlanta Falcons. Sure, Atlanta could easily keep things going with another win, but with no sense of how well the Eagles can perform, I want to grab as many points as possible.

Picking the two AFC games feels obvious. It would be nice to see the Patriots line pushed to a field goal with the tease, but I’m not sweating 3 to 3.5. I expect them to win comfortably even if they don’t cover the two touchdowns on the normal line. Likewise, taking Pittsburgh on this tease almost feels too easy. I don’t expect Jacksonville to win, but even if it does, the Steelers have a chance to cover.

Grabbing Minnesota completes a slightly worrying selection of all four home teams (though not all four favorites). However, New Orleans is a different team on the road, and you have to hate what you saw out of the Saints’ running game in round one. That won’t fly against the Vikings. And just like the Steelers pick, even if the Saints manage to win, Minnesota has a nice chance to lose but still cover.

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I feel really good about three of these home teams in my teaser, with the Eagles being the lone wart. It’s weird that they are a one-seed, but if Carson Wentz was in there, we obviously wouldn’t be getting three points. Maybe this was a gambling blessing in disguise.

Dan’s Teaser:

Atlanta Falcons +7 (from -3) at Philadelphia Eagles
Tennessee Titans +23.5 (from +13.5) at New England Patriots
Jacksonville Jaguars +17 (from +7) at Pittsburgh Steelers
New Orleans Saints +13.5 (from +3.5) at Minnesota Vikings

While you seem unsure of backing all of the home teams, I feel damn confident once again siding with all four road teams. Picking against the spread with a team on the road means one of two things. Either you think that team can win, or you are getting so many points it doesn’t matter. Every road team gets points in our ten-point teaser! Plus, I believe at least half of them win outright.

Sorry not sorry to the Philadelphia Eagles, but Atlanta has a bigger chip on its shoulder and more to play for. They desperately want to avenge their Super Bowl loss from a season ago, and that means advancing. The Eagles may have zero expectations at home, but they are also minus a quarterback named Carson Wentz. Philadelphia is the underdog for a reason, but in our teaser we get a touchdown with the Falcons. That is a smart play in what will be a close football game.

Our other NFC contest is a bit different. I believe the Vikings win at home, but they will not blow out the Saints. Minnesota played a number of close games this season and New Orleans is no slouch. This might be the most even matchup of all four Divisional round games in the NFL Playoffs 2018. Therefore its safe to take nearly two touchdowns and New Orleans.

Next: NFL Playoffs: 20 Bold predictions for the Divisional Round

The two AFC games are a bit different. I like Jacksonville on the road, especially after they handled Pittsburgh during the regular season. Antonio Brown is still banged up and the Jaguars are getting a ton of points in our teaser. But Tennessee is getting even more points! New England likely wins this game, but not by more than three touchdowns. Does no one respect the Titans at all? They did beat Kansas City on the road. I think they can keep things within 20 points.