Cincinnati Bengals: Is Teryl Austin a good hire for defense?

Recently, the Cincinnati Bengals tabbed Teryl Austin as their new defensive coordinator. Was this a good move by the team?

It has been an interesting start to the 2018 offseason for the Cincinnati Bengals. Marvin Lewis went from a month of being expected to depart from the team to signing a two-year extension.

His staff, however, is experiencing changes. Long-time assistant coach and defensive coordinator Paul Guenther has left for Oakland. In his place Teryl Austin, the former defensive coordinator of the Detroit Lions, will take over.

Was this a good move?

What Guenther Leaves Behind

Guenther wasn’t exactly a household name in his time with Cincinnati. Really, he was probably better known as the guy left to replace Mike Zimmer when he left for the head coaching vacancy in Minnesota. That being said, for the most part he did a pretty good job since taking over the defense in 2014.

The unit he was left with in his opening year as coordinator wasn’t good along most lines (No. 22/20/20 in Total/Pass/Rush yards per game; last in sacks), but they still ranked well in points allowed per game (No. 12), third down percentage (No. 7), interceptions (T-3), and total turnovers forced (T-10).

With better resources (especially in the pass-rushing department) provided to him the next year, his unit was even more impressive. Only Seattle bested them in points allowed and they went from 20 sacks to 42 in a single season (jumping from No. 32 to No. 10). Not only that, but they were a top 10 across the board in Football Outsiders’ Defensive DVOA rankings (No. 10 Overall, No. 9 Weighted, No. 10 Pass, No. 8 Run) while being the most consistent defensive unit each week (#1 in Variance).

The unit hasn’t been able to keep up with those heights the past couple seasons, but at their worst they’ve mostly been average.Austin’s task will be to take them a step higher.

Austin’s Time In Detroit

Austin’s work in Detroit has probably been underrated by most — with good reason. The defense there hasn’t managed to rank highly in most metrics across the expanse of his time in control of the unit, but they have almost always remained pretty competitive.

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Since taking over the unit in 2014, his group oftentimes lacked proper resources (mainly because of untimely cap constraints and all the money spent on offensive pieces). Despite the unhelpful situation afforded to him however, Austin’s unit was able to keep games in manageable situations.

Across his four seasons at the helm of the defense, his unit held the opposition under 20 points on 30 occasions; in them, the team was able to go 24-6. Also, despite being a middling-or-worse defense in terms of not only yardage but DVOA (including dead last in overall, weighted, and pass defense DVOA in 2016), his group made enough timely stops and plays to leave Detroit in 38 one-score results; the Lions went 22-16 in them, with a winning record in those situations in three of those four seasons.

The performance of his Lions’ defenses never felt noteworthy or scary in the moment, but those teams would manage to muck things up and stick around right to the end of games, allowing their highly-paid quarterback to have a shot to methodically win it at the end. That strategy let a team which isn’t a decade removed from 0-16 to reach the playoffs twice, have a winning record three times, and do no worse than 7-9 in Austin’s four years with the team.

Why Will Austin Succeed In Cincinnati?

Because he’s getting to do something we’ve not seen much of in the past three seasons: work with elite talent. With all the positives Austin has gotten out of his Detroit defenses, only one actually stacked up with the talent needed to be a consistent force — the 2014 version. That team was easily his best-performing group, sitting high atop the box score and advanced metrics.

They were No. 1 in rush yardage allowed, No. 2 in total yardage allowed, No. 3 in points allowed, No. 3 in interceptions, No. 8 in sacks, and No. 9 third down percentage. Per Football Outsiders, they were top ten in a bundle of advanced metrics: overall DVOA (No. 3), Weighted DVOA (No. 7), Pass DVOA (No. 8), Run DVOA (No. 1), Variance (No. 9), yards per drive (No. 4), points per drive (No. 3), turnovers per drive (No. 5), plays allowed per drive (No. 9), Drive Success Rate (No. 8), touchdowns per drive (No. 8), field goals per drive (No. 4), punts per drive (No. 3), and three-and-outs per drive (No. 4).

It shouldn’t be a surprise how good they were though; that team was stacked with talent on every level. On the interior: Ndamukong Suh, having perhaps the best season of his career. On the edge: Ezekiel Ansah, stepping into his own in his second season. In the middle: the always-underrated DeAndre Levy, having what was his best year and showing that 4-3 outside linebackers were still capable of dominating seasons. In the secondary: Darius Slay and Glover Quin, each of whom could make the game-defining play in a win.

Behind the efforts of those players and decent depth, Austin was able to make a top-flight unit; without it, his unit lost its ability to dominate, but his leadership was key in keeping them consistent despite the clear talent deficiencies which arose as many of those stars left (Suh) or dealt with injuries (Levy, Ansah).

With Cincinnati, Austin will again have the elite talent to build his attack around. Geno Atkins is still an elite presence at defensive tackle. Vontaze Burfict may be a constant threat for being suspended, but when he’s on the field he’s one of the most impactful linebackers in the game. Carlos Dunlap and Carl Lawson are the present and future leads for what should again be a deep pass rush rotation. William Jackson III looks like a star at cornerback.

With all this talent already in tow, this group already was out the outskirts of the top 10 at times early in 2017 before injuries decimated their depth and effectiveness; it’s hard to believe the injury luck will be worse than it was in the closing stretch of this past season. Add in a coach who should not only better utilize their star talent but also elevate the consistency of the non-stars, and this could quickly entrench itself as a top unit for years to come.

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Remember this too: unlike in his Detroit tenure, Austin’s star players are more likely to be around for awhile this time. Burfict just signed a huge extension in 2017. Lawson is entering his second year; Jackson III is entering his third. Dunlap and Atkins are both free agents after 2018, but the one place Cincinnati consistently spends money is on their own key players — and at 28 and 29, respectively, they should each have plenty of good years still left ahead of them.

The decision to bring in Austin may not have been the change that was expected for Cincinnati after the season, but it could quickly become the catalyst which returns them to the playoff field for years to come.

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