NFL Playoffs 2018: Best picks against the spread (ATS), Championship Round
By Dan Salem
With only two games in the Championship Round, we move to more traditional six point teasers while picking both winners. Best picks against the spread for NFL Playoffs 2018.
Our magical playoff run continues. In the divisional round, good fortune shined upon two of the four selections. In the Titans-Patriots game, New England led 35 to 7 late in the fourth quarter. Tennessee scored a touchdown with under two minutes remaining to cover Dan’s 10-point tease selection.
But Todd has that topped! In the Jaguars-Steelers game, Jacksonville led by two touchdowns late in the fourth quarter. For Pittsburgh to cover three points, quite a scenario would be necessary. Pittsburgh had to score a touchdown; it did. Jacksonville had to convert on a field goal, not another touchdown, and it did. Then Pittsburgh had to score a late touchdown and convert the extra point, even though the game would have already been decided. It did all of that, with one second remaining on the clock, to salvage a push! Just remarkable. We are picking both games in a six-point teaser for the Championship round. Your best teaser picks against the spread.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the NFL Playoffs 2018 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
Records ATS:
Dan’s playoff teaser record: 2-0
Todd’s playoff teaser record: 2-0
Dan’s regular season record ATS: 18-16
Todd’s regular season record ATS: 14-20
For the conference finals, we are down to two games. That means we move back to our classic, six-point tease. Let’s see if our good fortune continues. Lines this week come courtesy of ESPN. We’ll move each game six points for the teaser.
Todd’s Teaser:
New England Patriots -1.5 (from -7.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Philadelphia Eagles +9.5 (from +3.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Patriots line seems to be swinging between 7.5 points and 9 points depending on the book. It may even move higher as the game approaches. I’m throwing New England in my tease while the value is still good. Jacksonville had quite a performance last week, but it was driven by Pittsburgh mistakes; mistakes that NE will not give the Jaguars.
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In the NFC, I have much less of a feeling. Minnesota seems like the better club, but only barely. I take the Eagles for a number of reasons. The difference between the clubs isn’t much; both defenses can keep this score low; Philly is at home and is a home dog for the second consecutive playoff game. I worry about the Eagles driving back if the Vikings get up early, but the tease gives me a considerable cushion in that regard. Super Bowl quarterback Nick Foles sounds incredibly weird, but only slightly more so than Super Bowl quarterback Case Keenum.
Dan’s Teaser:
Jacksonville Jaguars +13.5 (from +7.5) at New England Patriots
Minnesota Vikings +2.5 (from -3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Case Keenum and Blake Bortles get no respect! While its safe and logical to back both home teams in the conference championship games, I’m picking the two teams I believe will actually win the AFC and NFC titles respectively. Homefield advantage is real, but so is momentum and great defense.
The Jaguars matchup really well with New England. Their pass rush can get to Tom Brady, something which always throws the Patriots fits. Jacksonville has been scoring on defense, as well as dominating with the run. All of this keeps the ball out of Brady’s hands. Bortles can keep playing it cool, because his team is elevating him to new heights. Its hard to straight up pick the Jaguars because of their history and their opponent, so take nearly two touchdowns and enjoy the show.
NFL Playoffs: 20 Bold Predictions for Championship Games
Minnesota is also getting a few points in what may be a very close football game. If its not close, then its because the Vikings dominated. Philadelphia only managed 15 points against a weak Atlanta defense, so scoring won’t come easy against Minnesota. I love how Keenum has managed his offense and barring unforeseen circumstances, his team will fare much better offensively than the Falcons did. I like the Vikings straight up, so grab a few points and start this one with a lead.