NFL 2018: Best bets on Over/Under win projections

Its never too early to look ahead. Will the NFL 2018 season be full of glory for you and your piggy bank? Your best bets on the initial Over/Under win projections for next season.

As we await the final game of the NFL season, over/under win total projections are filtering in for the upcoming NFL 2018 season. ESPN has released a list of projected totals, with teams ranked from last to first. As one would expect, the Cleveland Browns are last and the New England Patriots are first. But even those selections are up for debate, because each team has its own over/under.

Which teams are the outliers and who presents a great bet at this early juncture of the offseason? Its never too early to be right, so adhere to these best bets.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the NFL 2018 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

As Bill Barnwell is careful to describe in his article, these are what one should expect the Vegas projections to be, not what the author would personally place the lines at. He opens up the door for his own scrutiny and value searching, let alone ours. So let’s find the value! Obviously, we have no idea how the offseason, draft, free agency, etc. will play out, but that’s entirely the point. A great early guess here could set up incredible value come next September.

My first reaction was near the very bottom of the list with the Indianapolis Colts and New York Giants. Indianapolis is given an over/under of 5.5 wins; the Giants’ is set at six wins. If Andrew Luck comes back and the Giants are trying to compete (as opposed to a complete rebuild), I think both teams hit their overs rather easily. I also like the Tampa Bay over at 6.5 wins after a highly disappointing 2017 reset everyone’s expectations of the franchise.

I don’t know who plays quarterback for Washington and Buffalo next season, but both teams feel like under bets from their seven-win projections, as do the Lions at eight wins. An offensive reset for the Skins and Bills, and a coaching reset for Detroit, can’t possibly lead to continuity right off the bat. These squads hovered around playoff contention all year, with Buffalo actually getting in, but that felt like an over-achievement to begin with. A step back feels likely, even if it’s a small one.

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At the top of the league, we have major turnover every single season, but I find it harder to pinpoint who will collapse from their high perch. However, those are the values I see in the middle and near the bottom of the sport. With the 2017 season not yet in the books, these six franchises offer value for 2018, even as we have no idea how the season will play out.

Dan Salem:

While you present sound logic, I can only agree with you about one team that you mentioned. The Washington Redskins are a sound bet for under seven wins, because I highly doubt Kirk Cousins returns as quarterback. Without Cousins, the Redskins are sorely lacking on offense, and the defense struggled this past season. They appear headed down a rebuilding path in 2018. I disagree completely regarding the Colts and Giants. Both teams were awful this past season. Coaching changes will help, but there are too many holes to be filled for me to envision significant improvement from either team.

One team that showed great improvement this past season was the New York Jets. They destroyed their over/under for 2017 and are a solid bet for over five wins in 2018. New York has strong young talent and consistency on much of its coaching staff. Winning at least one more game this coming year is a slam dunk.

I also love the San Francisco 49ers to win over 7.5 games. The team went 5-0 with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback and return nearly everyone. I’m not saying they’ll make the playoffs, but they’ll be knocking on the door with 8 or more victories.

Two more teams jumped out to me as solid bets to fall under their projections. I do not like the Chicago Bears next season and believe they win fewer than 6.5 games. Chicago’s division is very tough and the Bears are still raw at quarterback. Their defense needs a lot of work as well. It will be hard for them to improve in the wins column.

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The same can be said of the Baltimore Ravens, who win less than nine games next season. Baltimore keeps coming up short and I see no way that the team gets over the hump with Joe Flacco at quarterback. I liked them to improve in 2017, but they stayed the course. A downturn is now on the horizon.