Super Bowl 52: Best teaser picks against the spread (ATS)
By Dan Salem
Todd Salem’s perfect record is on the line as we reveal your best teaser picks against the spread (ATS) for Super Bowl 52. Which team should you favor in a teaser with the over/under?
It is hard to imagine running a clean sweep through the playoffs picking teasers alone, especially after the regular season record Todd Salem put together, but here we are. Its been a magical run for both our brothers. New England needed a massive second-half comeback to win outright and advance to the Super Bowl. But the Patriots did enough to also cover themselves in a tease.
As for Philadelphia, it won and covered easier than anyone could have possibly imagined. Todd was nervous taking Philly +9.5, which seems utterly foolish now, though apparently not as foolish as Dan taking Minnesota +2.5!
Dan’s playoff teaser record: 2-1
Todd’s playoff teaser record: 3-0
Dan’s regular season record ATS: 18-16
Todd’s regular season record ATS: 14-20
Todd is going for the clean teaser sweep with just one game remaining, so let’s throw both the game’s spread and the over/under into a 6-point tease. For Super Bowl LII, as of Jan. 31, the lines sit at New England -4, and Over/Under 48.5 points.
Todd’s Teaser:
New England Patriots +2 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Under 54.5
I will be teasing the Patriots with the Under for a few reasons. Everyone would agree that the Eagles’ strength is their defense. But Jacksonville’s defense is better, and look what NE just did to it in the second half of the AFC championship. Halftime adjustments were made, and Tom Brady took over. Thanks to such potential adjustments, the coaching edge will also be squarely on the Pats’ side.
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It is perfectly possible the Nick Foles magic continues against this suspect New England defense, but that doesn’t mean Philadelphia will win. I’m dubious that he will continue to complete 75 percent of his postseason passes to begin with, but this tease gives me the buffer where all the Pats have to do is stay within one anyway.
Thanks to massive scoring outputs by the Eagles and the familiarity with NE in these spots, this over/under feels like it was set purposefully high. It is also not fun to bet an Under, which has to factor into Vegas’ original slotting of the line. But I’ll push the total high enough where an Under bet seems like a lock.
Dan Salem’s Teaser:
Philadelphia Eagles +10 vs. New England Patriots
Over 42.5
I wouldn’t have swung my teaser the opposite of your own if I didn’t believe Philadelphia can win outright. The Eagles are playing with house money and riding the ultimate confidence high. Now we saw how that translated for the Vikings in the NFC championship, but they were on the road. Philadelphia is looking to claim its first Super Bowl title in team history, after humiliating its opponent in the last round. I like this matchup for the Eagles.
Taking Philadelphia +10 feels safe to me. The Eagles running game is very good, a perfect achilles heel to New England’s suspect run defense. This keeps the game close, as Philly controls the clock and roughs up Brady with its defensive pressure up front. Starting with a ten point lead is sweet.
Super Bowl: 8 Best Prop Bets for Eagles vs. Patriots
I’m also foreseeing an offensive show in the second half. New England won’t go down easy, if they do at all. Both teams ultimately eclipse twenty points and surpass a minimal line that requires them to score 21.5 points each. There is a solid chance we both are right on our teasers, because Super Bowl LII feels very even.