New York Giants: The case for drafting Baker Mayfield

The New York Giants will likely have a shot at drafting Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield. Some out there believe Mayfield is worth the risk.

Just about every NFL first-round pick comes with risk. There are no “sure things.” It wasn’t all that long ago when Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck was seen as the best future signal-caller to enter the league since Peyton Manning, but Luck has not yet played to those expectations (thanks largely to the Colts repeatedly failing him, but that’s a different story for a different post.)

The New York Giants will be taking a leap of faith by using the second overall draft selection on any rookie quarterback if new head coach Pat Shurmur and new general manager Dave Gettleman fall in love with a potential replacement for two-time Super Bowl MVP Eli Manning. On paper, some players are less risky than others, but going all-in on a quarterback with such a coveted pick usually either defines a regime or costs those within it their jobs.

This bring us to Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield, probably the most polarizing offensive leader of this draft class and the most criticized since the days of Johnny Manziel. Unless your football watching begins and ends with the Giants, you’ve probably already made your mind up about the young man who turns 23 years old in April. You either love him, or the thought of seeing him rocking Big Blue on the MetLife Stadium sideline in August turns your stomach.

Back on Feb. 12, Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus published a lengthy and even spirited defense of Mayfield as a player and a person. Perhaps the most interesting takeaway from Monson’s words pertained to Mayfield’s ability to make “NFL throws,” and what that may mean for how he’ll transition from featuring in a college offense to one that plays on Sunday afternoons:

"This past season, Mayfield had the eighth-most ‘NFL throw’ attempts in the nation and by far the best grade of any college quarterback on those pass attempts. This is not a player that was simply the product of a gimmick offense putting defenses in ugly situations and benefitting from routine and easy throws every down.Of course, as is the case with Mayfield in almost all circumstances, he also had one of the best grades in the nation on non-NFL throws as well. Again, Mayfield is just excellent across the board."

Personality aside, Mayfield’s size — or lack thereof — sounds alarms for older scouts who believe all NFL QBs should tower over offensive linemen. He’s similar in stature to Russell Wilson, a Super Bowl champion who could start for a majority of NFL teams. Last week, Bucky Brooks of NFL.com compared Mayfield to Case Keenum, who found new life to his career playing in Shurmur’s offense with the Minnesota Vikings:

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"Now, I know that comparison will draw some raised eyebrows from Mayfield supporters, but I believe their physical dimensions (Mayfield measured 6-0 3/8, 216 pounds last month at the Senior Bowl; Keenum measured 6-0 1/2, 208 pounds at Houston’s Pro Day when he was a prospect in 2012), collegiate production (Mayfield finished with 12,292 passing yards and a 119:21 TD-INT ratio at Oklahoma; Keenum amassed 19,217 passing yards and posted a 155:46 TD-INT ratio as a Cougar) and playing style are very similar."

Mayfield probably isn’t NFL-ready in February, meaning he won’t be at that level come September. That’s fine. Manning is 37 years old, which isn’t ancient for a quarterback these days. He should have at least one more solid year left in the tank so long he doesn’t lose the majority of his best offensive weapons to injuries, and the Giants bolster the team’s sieve-like line this offseason.

Recently, the Heisman-winning quarterback told Steve Serby of the New York Post he’d love to pick the brain of New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady. It’s easy to imagine Mayfield would learn plenty training and scouting alongside the greatest quarterback in the history of the Giants, and Manning proved throughout 2017 he’s willing and even happy to help a rookie in the classroom and during midweek preparations.

The Giants hired Shurmur, in part, to groom who will, ideally, become New York’s next franchise quarterback. Mayfield is a project who needs seasoning and time, but the potential for him to thrive in Shurmur’s offense makes him an intriguing option. Whether or not Shurmur would want to work with Mayfield is unknown to those of us outside of the organization.

Next: 2018 NFL Mock Draft: Full two-round projection

The February 2017 arrest that went viral. Planting the flag in the center of the Ohio State logo. The trash talk, and the grabbing of a certain part of his anatomy. Mayfield’s history is well-known. The line that separates a fiery personality from one too immature to guide an NFL locker room is paper-thin, and every NFL team remotely interested in Mayfield will complete extra homework to discover any significant concerns about trusting him to be the CEO of an offense.

Mayfield unquestionably has Big Apple swag and poise, and he’d win press conferences and the hearts of fans in the first several days of his Giants tenure. The tools are there for him to win on the field, in time. Mayfield now must convince the Giants he’s worth the investment. He’s already achieved that mission in the eyes of some respected analysts.