Atlanta Falcons have a Tevin Coleman problem

The Atlanta Falcons have a problem at running back, all be it a good one. Tevin Coleman is the best backup in the NFL. Does he stay or does he go?

No matter how poor or successful a team’s season was, there are always major offseason questions on the front burner. The NFL turns over too much for even the best teams to advance a calendar year unscathed. Let’s continue the team-by-team overview with the Atlanta Falcons.

There are extensions to hand out in Atlanta, but in terms of free agency, really the only unit being affected in a major way is the defensive line. The more interesting development is that of running back Tevin Coleman, arguably the best backup RB in the league. Does he stay or does he go?

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the Atlanta Falcons in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

Coleman is not a free agent. He has a dirt-cheap contract that pays him less than $1 million in 2018. However, there are smoking guns that seem to indicate that something is afoot.

First was the contract Atlanta handed to timeshare mate Devonta Freeman. The Falcons will pay him roughly $40 million over the next five seasons. For a running back in the league today, that is about as serious a commitment as a team can make. That would seem to indicate Atlanta wants to move along with Freeman and move away from Coleman after the latter becomes a free agent in 2019.

Follow the steps. From there, it makes sense to get something for a player before losing him for nothing, especially when he is a talented player stuck behind a different talented player who is paid much, much more.

It’s why ESPN, off-handed, said “it’s difficult to imagine the Falcons bringing back Tevin Coleman.” It’s also why Atlanta general manager Thomas Dimitroff was forced to address the issue and said this week that there is no way the team will trade Coleman, and they aren’t even considering it.

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If we’ve learned anything from announcements like this, you know what’s coming. The Falcons are most definitely considering trading Coleman! He might be on the move before this article posts!

Whether the team is calling around to move the super sub or not, though, it begs the question of if it should be dealing him. Coleman is probably the best part-time player in the league, or at least in the discussion. Though I couldn’t find the stats for most touchdowns in a two-year period for substitute players, with a little legwork on Pro Football Reference, Coleman is in a league of his own. I tried to whittle down the parameters to include subs (fewer than 200 touches per season and fewer than 42 targets to account for full-time wide receivers). But I wanted to capture Coleman’s receiving prowess (at least two receiving touchdowns per year), as well as overall scoring load (at least seven total scores per year).

Those are admittedly very specific criteria sets, but the fact remains that he is the only player in league history with at least seven scores for two straight years with that low level of workload. And he has 19 touchdowns since 2016! Said much, much simpler, Coleman has a special nose for the end zone.

His value around the league is surely sky high, but would he be worth more to another team than he is to Atlanta right now? The Falcons lean on him normally, but especially when Freeman hits his annual time on the shelf. Coleman can be a burst off the bench but can also carry a full workload in a pinch. On a rookie deal, that is incredibly valuable.

The choice is a simple one. If the Falcons are trying to compete in 2018, they hold onto that asset because he will help them win. If they are playing for the future, they trade Coleman right now and capitalize on his status. Since it appears Atlanta is ready to compete once again, you don’t plan for a future that doesn’t exist yet.

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Dan Salem:

It is truly uncanny how consistently a person or team makes a public statement emphatically stating they will not do something, only to do that exact thing within a few short weeks. How dumb do they think we are as fans? Don’t answer that. Atlanta is an enviable position, with two talented running backs. Coleman, on the other hand, is bound by the whims of opposing general managers.

The Falcons struggled to be consistent last season. Something was missing and the team was not as dominant as the year prior when they made their Super Bowl run. Granted, Matt Ryan had his best season as a pro in that Super Bowl season, but the offense never found its flow for longer than a game or two in 2017. Removing Coleman from the equation is not going to help them in 2018. Atlanta is certainly trying to compete, because no team can afford to squander a season with a Pro Bowl quarterback under center. Unfortunately, teams often undervalue their second running back, but nearly every team employs a rotation at the position. You can’t have a successful rotation without a successful second running back!

Perhaps Atlanta believes it can replace Coleman with a rookie or other free agent. But make no mistake, the Falcons will need to replace him, if and when they trade him. His replacement will likely be an inferior player, unless they snag a rookie who can ultimately overtake Freeman. The only situation in which Atlanta should trade Coleman is if they receive a true bounty for him. I’m talking a second and third round pick, plus cash considerations, or something even richer.

Having two excellent running backs is just as good if not better than having one star rusher. The New York Jets had an excellent running game in 2016 with Matt Forte and Bilal Powell, that is until Forte got hurt. Powell is a tremendous second back, but its unclear if he can carry the weight of being the number one guy. Atlanta has had the same luxury for several seasons, so why not re-sign Coleman to a new contract like the Jets did with Powell?

Next: 2018 NFL Mock Draft before Combine testing

Perhaps they let him play out his rookie deal and then slap the franchise tag on him. Or perhaps they wait and see if he earns a new deal in 2018. At this juncture of Ryan’s career, it seems foolish to remove successful pieces of the offense. Atlanta should be making additions to his arsenal.