Kansas City Chiefs will fall if Patrick Mahomes falters in 2018

The entire Kansas City Chiefs offense is on the shoulders of young Pat Mahomes in 2018. If he falters, the team is sure to fall. But how great must he be for a return to the postseason?

No matter how poor or successful a team’s season was, there are always major offseason questions on the front burner. The NFL turns over too much for even the best teams to advance a calendar year unscathed. Let’s continue the team-by-team overview with the Kansas City Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes has a lot of pressure on him. The Chiefs traded away veteran quarterback Alex Smith to open the door for Mahomes to become the franchise passer. Not only that, but Kansas City is without a first-round pick in 2018 thanks to trading up to acquire Mahomes in the first place. If he doesn’t click right away, Kansas City fans will be rather grumpy. More to the point, if he falters at all, the Chiefs fall to the bottom of their division.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the Kansas City Chiefs in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

The focus on Mahomes isn’t the only thing that could go wildly wrong for the Chiefs. They traded away perhaps their most talented defender, Marcus Peters, and received nothing but a mid-round draft pick and a 2019 second-rounder in return. They are moving on from Derrick Johnson and will need a complete recovery from Eric Berry after the All-Pro safety missed most of 2017.

That would be bad enough, but the sneaky thing about KC last year, particularly on offense, was that it wasn’t as talented as people seemed to think. Smith was responsible for a lot of the success the team found. He doesn’t get enough credit for what this roster accomplished. Said simply, the KC offense was perhaps the most top-heavy unit in the entire NFL.

Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are a fearsome threesome that terrify any opposing defense. No one else on the entire depth chart was even worth covering, though, let alone game plan against! After Hunt and Smith, the leading rusher was Charcandrick West, who accumulated 72 yards all year. The leading receiver after Kelce and Hill barely eked past 500 yards. Besides Hunt hitting a rookie wall, the fact that KC had only three players that defenses needed to account for surely led to the team’s struggles in the season’s second half.

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Now that same unit falls into the hands of Mahomes. Is there ANY chance he is better than Smith in 2018? I see a zero percent chance of that happening. Kansas City adding Sammy Watkins was just a necessary first step of a plan that must include multiple skill players being added to this offense to help the young guy out and even tread water with last year. The team also needs interior defensive linemen and some safety depth. And this is a defensive unit that also fell off a cliff as last year went on.

I like Mahomes as a prospect. You can’t help but like the high-end talent on this Chiefs’ roster. However, I would expect this squad to finish in last place in a deep AFC West next year. Last-to-first happens all the time in the NFL. Here goes a potential example of the reverse.

Dan Salem:

Fans can either give Andy Reid the benefit of the doubt, or start panicking. There is little room in the middle, since Mahomes has yet to show us much of anything on the field. Alex Smith was excellent during his tenure as Kansas City quarterback, but he was likely going to fetch a high price in free agency, more than the Chiefs wanted to spend. Trading him for assets was a smart move. However, leaving the entire offense in the hands of Mahomes is a dangerous hedge.

The Kansas City offense does not ask a lot of its quarterback. Smith succeeded because he made smart decisions and committed very few turnovers. Its a rare quality for a quarterback to be able to do both, but if you surround your passer with some weapons, that is more than enough to be successful. Smith made the deep connection when necessary and knew how to win…in the regular season.

Mahomes may be able to fill Smith’s shoes admirably, but more likely he turns the ball over a bit more and misses a few more passes. Thankfully the Chiefs have added Sammy Watkins to the mix on offense, eliminating some of the double teams that Kelce would have received. They will be a run first offense with Hunt and utilize size and speed in the passing game, assuming Mahomes is an accurate passer.

The Chiefs also filled their void at linebacker, adding Anthony Hitchens. But I still see a hole at backup quarterback, with few options left in free agency. If Mahomes struggles or gets injured, the Chiefs need someone to step in and successfully run their offense. Yet who remains available? Even the likes of Trevor Siemian are off the table, as he is being traded from Denver to Minnesota to play backup.

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In Andy Reid we trust, unless its the playoffs or the final two minutes of a football game. That has been the mantra throughout his coaching career. He’s done a great job with quarterbacks and getting his team to overachieve. Yet he’s never gotten over the hump, consistently coming up short late in games or the playoffs. I thought the Chiefs would take a step back in 2017, so its hard to imagine them not doing so in 2018 with a raw quarterback in a very tough division. Most teams fail to prop up their quarterbacks and cover for his shortcomings. The Chiefs are about to try.