San Francisco 49ers: Assessing the risk of drafting Arden Key

Arden Key is a player seemingly on the San Francisco 49ers’ radar, here we assess whether the LSU edge rusher would be worth the risk he comes with.

The San Francisco 49ers have made it clear through their activity in the pre-draft process that they consider edge rusher a significant need. And despite off-field concerns, the 49ers appear to have Arden Key on their radar.

In addition to meeting with Key at the Combine — per David Lombardi of The Athletic — the 49ers, according to Jennifer Lee Chan of Niners Nation, also met with NC State’s Bradley Chubb, UTSA’s Marcus Davenport, Harold Landry of Boston College and USC’s Rasheem Green, who spent much of his time playing on the defensive interior but may be a better fit as an edge rusher.

San Francisco had defensive line coach Jeff Zgonina work out Davenport and Florida State’s Josh Sweat, per Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee, with a national scout and area scout in attendance for the former workout. NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport also reported the 49ers had a visit scheduled with Georgia’s Lorenzo Carter, the top-ranked SPARQ athlete in the edge class. But it is the visit of LSU’s Key, as confirmed by the man himself, that may raise eyebrows.

Key, per NFL.com, described the 49ers as a “great program”, but whether he has the chance to join the team may well depend on how he interviewed during the Combine and in his visit after a hugely disappointing 2017 season. A 2016 campaign in which he racked up 11 sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss had some tabbing Key as a potential first overall pick, but he failed to back that year up.

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Key left LSU for four months in the spring of 2017 for “personal reasons” that remain unexplained in public, and had shoulder surgery in that time while ballooning in weight to 270 pounds.

The result was a junior year in which Key played only eight games and had just four sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss. Key, per Alex Martin Smith of SEC Country, said teams he has interviewed with have been “blown away” by his explanation for his absence.

However, with 49ers linebacker Reuben Foster having been arrested twice this offseason after San Francisco traded back into the first round to draft him in 2017, Key will be viewed by many as a risk for the franchise. And whether he is a risk worth taking is up for debate. At his best, Key demonstrates the burst and pass-rush repertoire to suggest he could be a force at the next level, but there are definite questions about his all-round game.

In his collegiate career Key consistently displayed the ability to win with an excellent first step off the snap. However, this was often cancelled out by an inability to consistently bend around the corner and shorten his path to the quarterback.

That deficiency is on show on the below play against Florida. Key gets great burst off the ball, but cannot bend around the corner and has to go the long way around to record the sack.

As he did on that play, Key can overcome an inability to bend with the closing speed to make up the ground he concedes, and can also compensate for that weakness by winning in a variety of ways. He combines his burst off the ball with the quickness to generate interior pressure, making him a useful threat on stunts such as the one LSU executed on the play below versus Ole Miss.

Key has a swim move to help win on the inside, while he also possesses an ability to defeat blockers with a club move and a dip move.

Yet, perhaps the most impressive tool he has in his arsenal is his spin move, which he used to near-perfection on this fourth-down sack against Auburn. He sets up this tackle with the spin and then quickly counters back inside to get to the quarterback.

What the 49ers will have to decide is if that repertoire will be sufficient for him to defeat NFL pass protection and, if not, they will need to discuss whether Key has shown enough in the pre-draft process to indicate he will be able to get by on his athleticism and deliver more reps where he does bend round the edge, such as this one against Mississippi State.

Down to 238 pounds, the signs at Key’s Pro Day were good. Though he clocked disappointing times of 4.91 and 4.89 seconds in the 40-yard dash, NFL Media’s Mike Mayock — per Rotoworld — said Key “looked phenomenal” in drills.

That kind of praise is encouraging, but a time of 7.16 seconds in the three-cone drill, seen as the measuring stick for bend among edge rushers, is not. Per Mock Draftable, that effort put him in the 61st percentile for edge defenders.

There also should be concerns over Key’s abilities against run, having consistently struggled to disengage from blocks even when taking on tight ends.

Still, if the 49ers were convinced by his answers in their interview and believe they can harness the potential that was obvious in 2016, then Key has clear value as a likely Day 2 pick.

But this is a franchise that looks ready to compete for the postseason and, to reach the playoffs, the defense will need much more than the 30 sacks produced in 2017. Even if they are confident in him off the field, the holes in Key’s game are enough to come to the conclusion that selecting him alone will not propel the pass rush to another level.

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Chubb may be out of the 49ers’ reach, but the likes of Landry, Carter and Sweat are all more athletically impressive specimens than Key who have shown the ability to bend. The 49ers would, therefore, be better served targeting a player from that group and possibly then looking at adding Key to the mix should he still be on the board in round three.

San Francisco needs as much help rushing the passer as possible but Key should only be a supplement to Plan A, not Plan A himself.