Oakland Raiders fooled everyone in 2017, dare we believe again?

The Oakland Raiders were great with average defense in 2016, then it all fell apart. After fooling us last season, do we dare believe in the Raiders once again?

No matter how poor or successful a team’s season was, there are always major offseason questions on the front burner. The NFL turns over too much for even the best teams to advance a calendar year unscathed. Let’s continue the team-by-team overview with the Oakland Raiders.

The soon-to-be Las Vegas Raiders gambled on a stars-and-scrubs defense last year and lost. This year, they appear to be hoping that an offensive overhaul will help the defense perform somehow. After fooling us a season ago, do we dare believe in the Raiders once again? Will Oakland manage an average defense, or one good enough to reach the playoffs?

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the Oakland Raiders in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

Last year, Oakland was roughly league-average on offense and near the bottom of the sport defensively. So this offseason, it added quarterback “guru” Jon Gruden to man the sidelines (for the next decade!!) and added Jordy Nelson and Doug Martin. Makes sense!

The Raiders also cut Marquette King — one of the best punters in the NFL — and Sebastian Janikowski — arguably the face of the franchise — and traded Cordarrelle Patterson from a special teams unit that ranked below average according to Football Outsiders. The club will be hard-pressed to find upgrades for each spot. I’m not saying that Gruden is out of his element after being away from the sport for a decade. But I’m also not not saying that.

To be fair, Oakland has been very active this offseason overall and did add some parts to its defense, specifically in the secondary. It is also expected to use much of the 2018 draft to improve that unit. And it still does contain Khalil Mack.

I suppose the outlook of the Raiders depends on which group you think is more real, the 2016 version that clowned people offensively while holding on for dear life on defense, or the 2017 version that was blah on offense and lost its grip defensively.

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Derek Carr dropped off in nearly every metric from 2016 to 2017, though he dropped from great to adequate. He wasn’t a bad quarterback. The team’s offensive line remains an asset as well. The question then becomes whether past-their-prime veterans will make a difference. Is Nelson still a top receiver? Can Martin spell or push Marshawn Lynch? What the heck happened to Amari Cooper?

Not all of those answers will go Oakland’s way, but I’d argue that the team is due for a bounce back offensively. Gruden — if he isn’t a man from a bygone era — is an offensive mind who gets results before wearing out his welcome. That works to the team’s benefit in 2018 (though not for a 10-year deal!) A playoff berth will likely come down to the defense being at least league-average. That should be all it takes to piggyback on this offensive ceiling.

Dan Salem:

I was particularly caught off guard by Oakland’s play last season on both offense and defense. The team that seemed to finally reach its potential in 2016 basically evaporated, leaving behind what we previously knew to be the Raiders. What the 2018 version has going for it is a massive chip on its shoulder. Nearly every player has a lot to prove to themselves and the league.

The AFC West is a division in turmoil, as both the Broncos and Chiefs will hand their respective offenses to a new quarterback next season. This too bodes well for Oakland. I’m willing to believe in this football team, but with significant hesitation. Fool me once, shame on you. But fool me twice and shame on me. Do I dare allow the Raiders to fool me once again?

Derek Carr was not enough last year to make up for a lack of defense. But he did not decline as a player statistically. Carr maintained his completion rate at 62 percent and his total yards at 3500 on the year. Both are spot on with his career average, although he only offers us a four year sample size.

His interceptions returned to the norm with 12 last season, but his touchdowns dipped significantly and fell in line with his rookie year. Oakland will most likely get 20+ touchdowns and 10+ interceptions from Carr in 2018, so the major question marks are with his receivers and running backs. I believe Gruden is enough to elevate those skill position players, using scheme and play calling to maximize his offense. That is what Carr needs to get another winning season on his resume.

Next: 2018 NFL Mock Draft: Full 7-Round projection

Defense will ultimately make or break the Oakland Raiders in 2018. Outscoring people as your primary means for victory is a recipe for disaster in the end. Defense wins championships 9 out of 10 times. With the AFC West up for grabs, the only team standing in Oakland’s way is themselves.