NFL Draft 2018: Predicting how top 6 quarterbacks will fall

The 2018 NFL Draft is unlike any other in recent memory, with a whopping six quarterbacks garnering first round grades and interest.

With just days remaining before the first round of the NFL Draft 2018 commences, everything is still up in the air. We don’t know who the Cleveland Browns will take at one. We don’t know in which direction the New York Giants are leaning at two. It is safe to presume the New York Jets will take a quarterback at three, but who will that quarterback be if two, one, or zero are already off the board?

The quarterback run expected to come in the first round of the NFL Draft this year is fascinating for two reasons. It is deep and still unknown, even the week of the draft! There may be as many as six passers selected in the first round, yet the order of at least the top four remains unknown around the league. So what is your order? We predict how all six quarterbacks will fall in Round 1!

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the NFL Draft 2018 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

Any of the top four quarterbacks could go in any order one through four. It’s crazy. The fifth QB seems to be Lamar Jackson and the sixth Mason Rudolph. The former is likely a mid-first round pick with Rudolph having a chance of sneaking into round one as well. The top four (alphabetically) are Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, and Josh Rosen. All four could be selected in the top six picks of the draft, or something comparatively crazy.

For me, the separation is a bit wider than others think. Darnold is my clear number one. He possesses all the tools and has proven himself capable at the highest collegiate level. Darnold also has good athleticism for the position, though needs to take better care of the football.

Darnold is the clear number one, and Allen is the clear number four. He is last in this group by a large amount. I would personally slot him closer to Jackson than to this top trio. In fact, I’d much rather have Jackson in the middle of the first than Allen in the top five. He has no accuracy and no pocket intelligence. I’d be permanently scared away regardless of how much confidence I had in my quarterbacks coach.

Second and third is where I’m torn. I like both guys and don’t care about either’s off-field “issues”. Rosen is apparently too smart for his own good. Being smart and questioning game plans is bad? And Mayfield is a fireball who gets too worked up. Caring too much is now bad too? I understand scouts and analysts are trying to parse the un-parseable, so they address issues that have little to do with football, but it is still incredibly silly.

I lean toward Rosen second, but I can’t put my finger on why exactly. Mayfield has the athletic and durability edges by a wide gulf. He also outperformed Rosen in college. Call it the eye test or a hunch.

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1) Darnold
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2) Rosen
3) Mayfield
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4) Allen
5) Jackson
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6) Rudolph

Dan Salem:

I don’t think I could have described the scene any better myself, but since we are debating I refuse to remain silent. It’s hard to recall a draft in which so many quarterbacks enter as highly touted prospects. But that is the reality of the 2018 NFL Draft, with six legitimate first round quarterbacks on the big board. Based upon what is now common knowledge, less than half of the six signal callers will become great pro quarterbacks. Those are the statistics. But I’m crying foul, because there has never been a draft with so many highly touted rookie passers! I can recall three or four in prior years, but never five or six. Considering this draft is an anomaly, I’m willing to bet the stats on quarterback success will be as well.

Four of these six players will become successful NFL quarterbacks, meaning two will bust. As a fan of a team in need of one, this is scary. But my team picks third, making it hard to screw up the math. The odds are in our favor! That being said, my breakdown of how these players will fall is in line with your analysis, yet I’m also factoring in the smoke and mirrors tactics currently being taken by all three teams atop the draft.

Before this process got underway, I had Darnold as my number one by a slim margin over Rosen. Call it local bias, as I’m a Los Angeles native and USC and UCLA are in my backyard, but they stood out. Because I did not believe either would fall to my Jets at six, I started to get excited about the prospect of Mayfield. Now Gang Green picks third and we have way too much information and opinions to consider.

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Counting backwards I have Rudolph sixth and Allen fifth. Something about playing for Wyoming and having “raw talent” but nothing else scares the hell out of me. Cleveland can have him first overall if last week’s rumors are to be believed. Jackson is fourth and then things get iffy. Now rumors are swirling that the Browns want Mayfield, the Jets want Darnold (who doesn’t) and the Giants don’t want any of them (seems unlikely). This makes me take pause. Darnold is now third, with Mayfield second and Rosen first. The intelligence and pocket presence of Rosen really resonate and Darnold’s turnover problems and the USC curse scare me a bit.

1) Rosen
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2) Mayfield
3) Darnold
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4) Jackson
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5) Allen
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6) Rudolph

We’ll see just how things play out. At this point, it’s anyone’s guess.