Proving yourself a franchise quarterback is a great accomplishment, yet Jameis Winston has been the worst of the bunch with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
No matter how poor or successful a team’s season was, there are always major offseason questions on the front burner. The NFL turns over too much for even the best teams to advance a calendar year unscathed. Let’s continue the team-by-team overview with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Like a number of other teams heading into 2018, Tampa Bay looks like it has talent across many levels of the roster. Its ceiling, however, comes down to the performance of the quarterback. While Jameis Winston has name recognition and pedigree, he hasn’t been particularly good yet in the NFL. He is still young, but the Buccaneers used their top pick on him three years ago. Improvement is necessary immediately at this point as the team risks it all on his continued development, or lack thereof.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
Todd Salem:
Over the course of Winston’s career, there are 20 quarterbacks who have started at least 36 times (a low bar of 12 starts per season). These are, by the barest of requirements, the 20 franchise quarterbacks of the past three years. Of that group, Winston ranks dead last in interception percentage, 18th in completion percentage, and tied for last in wins. Though he pushes the ball down the field, he is right around the middle of the group in yards per attempt and just 17th in touchdown rate. Said a simpler way, Winston has been one of the worst full-time quarterbacks in the league since he was drafted.
Now, being a full-time quarterback is an accomplishment on its own. A ton of other guys failed to meet the original threshold because they weren’t good enough to warrant 36 starts. But if you are taking for granted the fact that Winston is a franchise quarterback, you must also point out that he is statistically one of the worst franchise quarterbacks in the sport.
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Will that change in year four? He certainly has pieces around him that should help. I love Mike Evans, Quizz Rodgers, Ronald Jones, Cam Brate, O.J. Howard, and all the other weapons on this roster. The line struggled to run block last season, but it isn’t a black hole unit, and the rookie Jones should help pick up a group that had been looking for a new lead back. Everything is set up for Winston to succeed.
On defense, similar steps were taken to compete seriously for the playoffs, including trading for Jason Pierre-Paul and using the 2018 first-round pick on Vita Vea. The NFC South is terribly competitive year after year. 2018 should be no different. This comes down to WInston, and I just don’t think he’s a good enough decision-maker and passer to push the talent around him over the hump. Year four won’t be a make-or-break season because the Buccaneers don’t have other options behind center. However, continually trotting out a below-average passer is a recipe for sustained irrelevance.
Dan Salem:
There are two arguments that work in Winston’s favor for 2018. The first is that Tampa Bay exercised its fifth year option on Winston, meaning they like him enough to consider him for longer. The pressure is off this year because its not a contract year. I’m not sure if that’s a good thing or not, but it’s reality. He may be the worst of the 20 franchise quarterbacks, but at least he qualifies. It’s safe to assume that the Buccaneers see reason for growth and improvement from Winston as well. Not having a better option is a poor excuse for keeping someone around.
The second argument in Winston’s favor stems from how Jacksonville is handling its quarterback situation. They continue to employ Blake Bortles, despite all of the evidence that points to him being exceedingly average. The Jaguars had a great season last year and likely will again, with Bortles. Using a “hold the fort” quarterback who manages the offense well and minimizes mistakes has proven to win in the NFL. The key is minimizing mistakes. Winston must improve in that area to be Tampa Bay’s version of Bortles.
Utilizing a quarterback who already knows your team’s offense well is a huge step towards winning. This is another reason the Jaguars kept Bortles and the Buccaneers extended Winston. I like the defense in Tampa Bay, as well as the offensive skill players. This can be a pretty darn good football team. Unfortunately, there are a lot of darn good football teams in the NFC right now.
We don’t yet know which teams will get worse in 2018, but several must for Tampa Bay to elevate into the playoffs. Considering every team ahead of the Buccaneers has a better quarterback, they certainly have their work cut out for them. But it’s not unprecedented. The Rams did it just last season, as the Seahawks and Cardinals fell off the pace. Their quarterback played immeasurably better. Winston must as well.
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I’m a firm proponent of certain skills being teachable and coach-able. You can’t teach the talent that Winston has, but you can teach him better footwork and ball control techniques. He can be coached to throw fewer interceptions by making smarter decisions, being more patient and reading a defense with greater accuracy. Even the best quarterbacks must learn to be better in this regard, see Andrew Luck. Not everyone can retain the information necessary to succeed, or be honest enough with themselves regarding areas that require improvement. But if Winston acknowledges his numbers, then he can be the quarterback that Tampa Bay needs in order to win.