New York Giants: From first to worst to first again?

There is a proven mantra in the NFL, don’t waste a season with a franchise quarterback under center. The New York Giants reloaded around Eli Manning, so how good will they be? Can they go from first to worst to first again?

No matter how poor or successful a team’s season was, there are always major offseason questions on the front burner. The NFL turns over too much for even the best teams to advance a calendar year unscathed. Let’s continue the team-by-team overview with the New York Giants.

The New York Giants made a number of impactful leaps this offseason, specifically related to the top of the draft. They passed on the opportunity to take a quarterback, instead running things back with Eli Manning at the helm. Now, the quarterback of the future will come down to mid-round picks Davis Webb and Kyle Lauletta, but that’s a problem for future iterations of this roster.

The team also made a publicly popular but analytically dubious selection of a running back with the second overall pick. Since its obvious they are going all-in this season, how likely is it that the Giants return to the playoffs? Are they good enough to go from first to worst to first once again?

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the New York Giants in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

Both of the Giants’ major offseason decisions make New York better in 2018, but perhaps doomed in the future. With the NFL being so topsy-turvy year to year, was this the smart move after all? It is almost impossible to plan too far out in football because rosters turn over too much within a three-year span. You can attempt to grow a young roster, but if certain parts mature faster than others, those players will age out into free agency too soon for the rest of the team to catch up. It is super tricky.

The Giants decided against all the trickiness. They went running back, offensive guard with their first two picks. The team doubled down on Manning at age 37. They are banking on returns of healthy players making this a team closer to the 2016 heights than the 2017 depths. And, though I was against such a strategy earlier in the offseason, I have to say, I’m kind of coming around!

Between Manning, Saquon Barkley, Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram, this offense is loaded with talent. The team spent major assets on the offensive line as well, including signing Nate Solder and Patrick Omameh, and drafting Will Hernandez. Even moving bust Ereck Flowers from left tackle to right tackle could save his career and anchor the line.

On defense, a number of important veterans were jettisoned, meaning young players will need to step up. But similarly to the offense, there are a handful of elite players still remaining, including Landon Collins, Janoris Jenkins, Olivier Vernon, and Damon Harrison.

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Getting a completely healthy year out of Beckham, Jenkins, and others will be vital, but that’s pretty obvious. No team succeeds without its best players available. Since New York decided to run things back with a team that just went 3-13, was this smart or incredibly dumb? More to the point, if you were forced to pick an outcome for New York this season – either duplicating last year’s 3-13 or duplicating the 11-6 record of the year before — which would you choose?

That is essentially the same math management went through. It determined this team was more likely to win 11 than 3 so it decided to push for the present by selecting Barkley, trading for Alec Ogletree, etc. And I can’t say I disagree! Now, of course, the Giants could simply go 7-9 and make this entire discussion stupid, but no front office plans for mediocrity. Either they compete for the playoffs or push for a rebuild. The Giants are playing to compete.

Dan Salem:

New York completely overachieved in 2016 and then underachieved in 2017. Having been a notoriously injured team, the Giants were very healthy in that successful season and lost all of their best offensive talent last year. Those two facts alone mean the New York Giants will be infinitely better in 2018, regardless of the moves they made. You don’t hemorrhage seasons with a franchise quarterback on your roster, so I’m completely on board with the moves that New York has made. Eli Manning can be elite, but requires protection and a running game. He had neither last year. Now he likely has both.

Considering that New York will have the best wide receiver and a top five running back to complement Manning, there is little room for concern on offense. I like the offensive line moves that were made and they were absolutely critical to the positive vibes now surrounding this team. The Giants are absolutely better than Washington and if the defense comes back around, they are also better than Dallas. The real question is whether the team is better than its wildcard competition.

The defending Super Bowl champions get the benefit of the doubt, so the Eagles are NFC East favorites. This leaves New York in a cluster of talented teams competing for a wild card spot. Eleven wins is likely necessary, because I’m not convinced ten will get it done in the NFC this season. Thankfully for New York, they were awful last year and have an ‘easier’ schedule because of it. Now it’s 50-50 if playing the AFC South and NFC South will be easy or not, but the 49ers and Bears are New York’s other two opponents outside of those divisions and its own. They are wins for a playoff team.

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I’d lean towards a playoff season for New York, rather than a repeat of its awful year. Both Beckham and Shepard must come back at dominant levels, opening the offense up to Barkley in the backfield. More importantly, the defense has to be above average. The Giants will win double digits with a slightly above average defense. Their weapons on offense are that good. I’m backing another flipflop this season in New York.

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