NFL 2018: AFC North predictions, new team on top

Every division is technically up for grabs, but savvy fans know better. Our NFL 2018 predictions begin in the AFC North, where a new team may finally win this division.

The NFL 2018 season is around the corner. With that come predictions for where teams will finish. Super Bowl odds are obviously the biggest ticket item, but finishes within divisions are worthy of monitoring as well. Let’s begin with the AFC North.

Last year’s AFC North had the biggest disparity between top and bottom of any division in the league. The Pittsburgh Steelers finished tied for the best record in football at 13-3. The Cleveland Browns finished as the sport’s worst team, going 0-16. In between, Baltimore and Cincinnati won 9 and 7 games respectively. What will happen this season? Can a new team win this division?

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the NFL 2018 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

Thinking back, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati finished better than I had recalled. Baltimore was in-line, and Cleveland we all knew was the worst in the sport. But there has been a rounding of this division in my mind. The Steelers aren’t a shoe-in to top their peers by four games. And the Browns’ moves this offseason would seem to hint at a better season for them than we have seen in quite some time.

The Steelers are not a good bet to win the AFC North because their odds are so low. They are the overwhelming favorites, but I don’t feel great about taking them. The continued degradation of Ben Roethlisberger shines a bright light on how top-heavy this team is in terms of talent. There are two stars left on offense, maybe just one on defense unless TJ Watt breaks out, and everyone else is filling in the holes. A reach for Terrell Edmunds in the first round of the draft probably won’t help management’s acquisition of star talent.

Of course, the rest of this division isn’t great. The group as a whole feels exceptionally average. I am taking the Ravens to come out on top but more in terms of them being a better bet. The defense should be the best in the division, which is a swell baseline. A division title, thus, comes down to Joe Flacco or Joe Flacco being benched for Lamar Jackson. I don’t love either option for 2018, but if Pittsburgh is 1/3 to win the division and Baltimore is 3/1 or 4/1, that is enough value for me.

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The rest of the division runs down pretty clearly from there. Baltimore first; Pitt second; Cincinnati third; Cleveland fourth. I am not ready to anoint the Browns as third-best here even if the Bengals do stink. The recipe in Cincinnati needs to be rebooted, which the franchise has consistently avoided, but there remains a wide gulf between the Bengals being poor and the Browns being good. The range was seven games last year after all.

For the Browns, I am going to wait until I see it. I know I may be late to the party, but I’d rather be on that side. Just like making NBA picks against LeBron James in the East or for the Spurs to bottom out, it never happens, so just wait until it does. Trying to predict that outcome is foolhardy. Maybe Cleveland is adequate in 2018. I’ll wait one more season to make sure.

Dan Salem:

Your bold pick of Baltimore to win the AFC North reminds me of how I felt last season. Surely this will be the year that Pittsburgh takes a step back because Big Ben’s age and injury history catch up with him. Stellar defense wins lots of football games, even with adequate offense.

Yet my pick of the Ravens last season resulted in disappointment, as the Steelers were several wins better than I anticipated, while Baltimore was one win shy of expectations. This year I anticipate fewer that 13 victories for Pittsburgh, but I’m going to borrow your very own manner of thinking in regards to this division. Until I see it, I don’t believe it.

Don’t get me wrong, I would love to see the Ravens unseat the Steelers atop the AFC North. Heck, I’d love to see the Browns do it. But Pittsburgh still has better offensive weapons, with a top five quarterback, running back and wide receiver to work with. Baltimore does not have any of those three, so its defense would have to be out of this world to top Pittsburgh in the standings.

My instincts tell me that the Steelers win the AFC North one more season, before things finally turn in 2019. Lamar Jackson is going to shine, but its likely a year away. Big Ben is going to retire and/or decline, but that too is a year away. Eleven wins notches the division for the Steelers, with Baltimore grabbing nine or ten in the thick of the wildcard race once again.

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As for the Bengals and Browns, there will a changing of the guard. Cleveland is going to win between four and six games, perhaps more if they mature and gel faster than anticipated. Cincinnati has been teetering on a rebuild for several seasons and feels ripe to bottom out in 2018. I like their quarterback, but little else excites me about the Bengals. They win at least one game less than Cleveland this season.