After back to back division crowns by the Chiefs, the AFC West will have a new king. Which team is the best bet to win during the 2018 NFL season?
The NFL 2018 season is around the corner. With it come predictions for where teams will finish. Super Bowl odds are obviously the biggest ticket item, but finishes within divisions are worthy of monitoring as well. Let’s continue our divisional exploration with the AFC West.
It is easy to imagine a first-to-worst plummet taking place for the Kansas City Chiefs this year. They turned their team over to a new quarterback who is essentially a rookie, Patrick Mahomes. This opens the door for a fierce competition for division superiority. Which team is the best bet to win the AFC West during the NFL 2018 season?
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the NFL 2018 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
Todd Salem
We always get on teams for treading water in the middle of the standings, so Kansas City pulled a hard reset on the Alex Smith era. And yet, that felt premature to me. This team was a solid playoff contender with Smith. Now, I would be surprised if it does not finish last in a tough AFC West.
The West in general feels very balanced, and the divisional odds represent that. No one is a heavy underdog nor comfortable favorite. Some early lines — depending on the source — actually had the Los Angeles Chargers favored to win the title. That surprises me, but I could easily see them doing so. Others touted Oakland as the favorite. All four teams feel pretty even.
Though I expect the Chiefs to finish last thanks to a quarterback with no experience, the team’s offense is actually deeper than it was a season ago. Spencer Ware will be back, and Sammy Watkins was added. That is a more talented group than the one Alex Smith led to the third-most points in the conference.
Each team in the division has this give-and-take. Denver looks to have the horses on defense but lacks play-making on offense, specifically at tight end and running back. The Broncos pulled a reset of their own, going in the opposite direction of Kansas City. They ponied up for Case Keenum to try to rebound with this group, but is he good enough outside of Pat Shurmur’s system?
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Oakland doesn’t fit the same blueprint. The Raiders look to have the most talent of the quartet on offense but a question mark on the other side of the ball. The secondary may be able to hold up if Bruce Irvin, Khalil Mack, and company get enough of a pass rush, but that would require breakout seasons from first-round picks Gareon Conley and Karl Joseph. Oakland was a disappointing 6-10 last year, leading to the hiring of Jon Gruden. It isn’t a hot take to say I’m dubious of Gruden’s ability to turn the ship back around. I like the talent on this roster but not enough to see it winning the division.
Los Angeles represents a similar roster to Oakland, just a tier above. It has two heavy pass rushers, forming a better pair than Oakland’s. LA also has talent in the secondary. If that unit stays healthy, it should also be better than Oakland’s counterpart. On offense, the Chargers have the better veteran quarterback, the better veteran running back, and the better number-one receiver. If Hunter Henry hadn’t been lost, LA would have an edge there as well. The only spot the Raiders are able to claim an edge would be the offensive line. However, that could be a considerable edge. Anthony Lynn does not inspire confidence in me. Call him a wash with Gruden.
I mentally separated the division into two halves, with KC and Denver on the bottom and Los Angeles and Oakland on top. Even that is hard to be sure of though. Ranking the head coaches, Kansas City is far and away number one, with everyone else tied for second. Ranking the QBs, I’d go LA, Oakland, Denver, KC. Defenses rank Denver, LA, KC, Oakland. Where is the separation here?
The best bet to win the AFC West is surely the team with the longest odds. Coming off a 5-11 season, that would be the Broncos. I don’t mind backing the Broncos at all. I like Keenum with a pair of prolific wide receivers, just like he had in Minnesota. And I do believe Denver could be the best defense in the division. Again, no order would surprise me, but write me down for Denver, Los Angeles, Oakland, Kansas City.
Dan Salem:
We’ve been calling for the downfall of the Chiefs for several seasons and it has never come. An inexperienced quarterback supports the argument for 2018 being the year, but I’m not buying it. Oakland had one great season and many mediocre years with Derek Carr. The Chargers have rarely eclipsed the 9-7 hump of late and Denver has not been able to translate its great defense into much success since Peyton Manning retired. This may be the best bunch of 8-8 teams in the league, but at least one of them is winning double digits.
My money was on the LA Chargers last season, so I’m not backing off in 2018. I believe that Philip Rivers has the offensive weapons to win ten games and the AFC West division, even without Hunter Henry at tight end. Word is that the Chargers already have a solid replacement making waves in camp. I also like Los Angeles’ defense and the team’s overall veteran experience. Winning nine games last year, but falling completely short of the playoffs, builds a ton of character and puts a chip on the Chargers’ shoulder. They are my pick in a crowded division.
Kansas City finishes second, barely ahead of Denver. Both teams have solid defenses and strong offensive talent. Andy Reid would not have handed his team to Mahomes if there wasn’t something strong there already. The coach has a great track record with quarterbacks, so the “downfall” of the Chiefs is likely only a few wins this season.
That’s enough to keep them from the playoffs, but not out of contention. Denver is going to take a solid step forward in the wins column, but Keenum will only carry them so far. This is a soft rebuilding year for the Broncos, meaning they win a respectable number of games and set up a dominant 2019 season. I’m just not feeling the playoff mojo right now.
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Oakland is a potential enigma, but I’m not willing to give them the benefit of a winning season until they earn it. I don’t trust their running game or their defense right now. Carr has been very good, but not enough to carry his team. Defense wins championships and the Raiders enter the year with the most unproven unit of the division. They also just hired an offensive head coach. Prove me wrong Oakland, but I’m not counting on you during the NFL 2018 season.