NFL 2018: NFC North Predictions, Packers won’t top Vikings

Aaron Rodgers will be in prove-it mode, but his Green Bay Packers won’t be able to top the Minnesota Vikings and their incredible defense. We have your NFC North predictions for the 2018 NFL season.

The 2018 NFL season is around the corner. With it come predictions for where teams will finish. Super Bowl odds are obviously the biggest ticket item, but finishes within divisions are worthy of monitoring as well. Let’s continue our divisional exploration with the NFC North.

Odds for this division are running pretty standard. Minnesota and Green Bay are neck-and-neck with terrible odds and heavy favoritism over their two peers. Detroit is expected to finish third, with Chicago running last, though not always trailing the Lions by very much. The issue here is that the Bears and Lions are not going to win the NFC North! That means picking a winner is going to be a pretty bad bet and essentially a coin toss between the Vikings and Packers.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the NFL 2018 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

I expect the halves of this division to hold serve. Chicago and Detroit will finish at the bottom, though I like the Bears a little more than the Lions. Allen Robinson adds a dynamic threat to an offense with two game-changers at running back. And the defense is starting to round into shape, littered with a few first-round draft picks in the starting lineup.

Detroit was super solid in 2017, but it’s not hard to see regression coming. The Lions were gifted a schedule that saw them face Green Bay twice without Aaron Rodgers. They also played Arizona and the Giants, two supposed playoff contenders prior to the season who both crashed to varying degrees. Those were four wins, and four more came against last-place Chicago, Cleveland, and Tampa Bay.

But wins are wins. My main issue with Detroit moving forward is one of talent. This looks like the worst defense in the division, and it will certainly be a horribly unbalanced offensive attack yet again. This running back rotation looks like a replacement-level version of New England’s. There are six guys who all might be kind of blah if they’re lucky, with the exception of Theo Riddick in the passing game.

Between the top two teams, my gut is to always resort to backing Aaron Rodgers unless he’s hurt. But is he now becoming…injury prone? He missed more than half the year last season. He missed almost half the year four years before that. In between, he was behind center each week, but these extended absences throw some uncertainty into the situation. And then there’s the elephant in the room. Even if Rodgers is healthy, the Vikings might be better.

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In my mind, Kirk Cousins is an upgrade over Case Keenum. He will need to familiarize himself with his new teammates and the offense obviously. But with a return of Dalvin Cook too, this offense should actually be better than it was in ’17, when it ranked fifth in the league in DVOA.

On the other side of the ball, Minnesota should battle for best defense in the sport, like it has for the past few years. The unit easily paces the defenses in the NFC North. Upheaval, like a change at quarterback, always throws a wrinkle into proceedings, but I don’t see any other excuse to pick against the Vikings.

Dan Salem:

We hold very similar inclinations about the NFC North, just as we did with every AFC division. Either we are both geniuses, or completely wrong. There is no middle ground. When it comes to the Packers and Vikings, I am backing the team with the best defense. That firmly belongs to Minnesota. They once again win the NFC North division during the NFL 2018 season.

Don’t get me wrong, I too have trepidations about betting against Aaron Rodgers. Its highly likely that he brings Green Bay to the playoffs as he returns from injury this season. I just don’t see a complete team around him, or at least not nearly as complete as the Vikings. The running game for the Packers has come a long way since Rodgers got injured, but the offense has lost wide receiver depth as well.

My pick is not a knock on Green Bay, but rather an acknowledgement of how good Minnesota is. They won a ton of games last season with a quarterback carousel caused by injury. This is a credit to their defense, their running game and a well constructed offense. Cousins is going to excel in the Vikings’ system. I love Minnesota just a little more than I love Rodgers in prove-it mode with Green Bay.

This leaves us with Chicago and Detroit, teams seemingly going in opposite directions. Yet shouldn’t we give Matthew Stafford the benefit of the doubt by now? He has overcome his team’s average defense and a lack of offensive playmakers year after year. Stafford continues to make his team better and find ways to win games. He’s led the Lions to a winning season and 2nd place in the NFC North division three of the last four years. Two of those seasons resulted in playoff berths.

AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs Will No Longer Rule the Division

Until Mitch Trubisky excels for the Bears, I’m not ready to move them ahead of Detroit. Perhaps this is the season that Chicago makes a leap and the Lions fall back, but history favors the opposite. So do I. Detroit comes in third, winning at least seven games because Stafford’s teams have won at least that many in each of the last five years.

My NFC North standings for the NFL 2018 season acknowledge how top heavy this division will be. Minnesota, Green Bay, Detroit and Chicago in that order. Defense rules the day.