Defending Super Bowl champions are terrible wagers, but are the Philadelphia Eagles even likely to win the NFC East in the NFL 2018 season? Your best bet pits the Dallas Cowboys vs. the New York Giants.
The 2018 NFL season is around the corner. With it come predictions for where teams will finish. Super Bowl odds are obviously the biggest ticket item, but finishes within divisions are worthy of monitoring as well. Let’s continue our divisional exploration with the NFC East.
We have no definitive idea of who is going to win this division in 2018. But what we do know is that one team stands above as the best bet to do so. And it is not the defending champions. Your best bet to win the NFC East in the NFL 2018 season pits the Dallas Cowboys versus the New York Giants.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the NFL 2018 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
Todd Salem:
The Philadelphia Eagles ran roughshod through the NFL last year on their way to a Super Bowl title. To make matters worse for opponents, they now defend their ring and get their franchise quarterback back (assuming Carson Wentz is recovered and ready to go by Week 1). However, as one would expect in such a scenario, the odds for Philadelphia to win the NFC East are terrible for bettors. It’s a clear stay away.
Interestingly, the most sprawling odds are given to the New York Giants, and they double as the best bet to make in this division. New York went from 11 wins to three wins. That alone is often a good sign of a bounce back. Teams in the NFL rarely tumble from such heights permanently. Maybe the 2016 team wasn’t as good as its 11 wins indicated, but the reverse holds true of last year, especially due to injuries.
The Giants themselves made it clear they think a bounce back is coming. Instead of drafting a quarterback of the future, they took the best player in the draft at number two. Eli Manning will be surrounded by some of the best skill players in the sport this season. With Nate Solder and Will Hernandez anchoring the left side of the line, the team’s annual weak point may be a huge upgrade this year as well. On defense, many of the main pieces who led New York to the second-best unit in the sport in ’16 are still around, flanked by new faces like Alec Ogletree and Lorenzo Carter.
I don’t love the Giants’ schedule, especially in the first half of the season. It is pretty brutal looking. However, can’t this group win the NFC East one in five, one in six times? Those are the odds being given.
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I don’t have the same belief in a Dallas tier-jump. The Cowboys offense looks like it could regress this year with so few receiving weapons. And the defense has never been an area of strength. That essentially means a winning season comes down to the seven men in the middle of the offense: the line, quarterback, and running back. It is a darn good group of seven, but not enough to carry a roster.
Washington is the long shot in the East and rightly so. Alex Smith brings steadiness to an offense that needs explosiveness. Josh Norman, Jordan Reed, and Trent Williams are stars who were better in years past. It would be a surprise outcome to see the Redskins finish anywhere above the bottom of a talented division.
My NFC East order is New York, Philadelphia, Dallas, Washington, with the only real competition coming between first and second. Go ahead and back the Eagles if you want, but have fun sweating out a bet with no possibility of a real return.
Dan Salem:
I fully expect Philadelphia to win this division because they have the best defense in the NFC East. Give me crap if you like, but I’m consistently backing the best defense in each division as we make our picks because teams win championships with great defense, not with great offense. Unfortunately, this makes the Eagles a terrible bet with no chance of winning much money. Therefore it comes down to New York and Dallas, unless you truly love a long shot. As a fan of the New York Jets, long shots are certainly appealing. Betting on Washington is not, however.
Looking solely at the last two seasons, because that is the basis for a potential Giants’ bounce back season, which team has been more consistent? New York won 11 games in 2015, compared to 13 victories by the Cowboys. The Giants then crashed in 2016 and won only three games, while Dallas stumbled to only nine victories. Both teams lost one of their best players for much of the season last year. Despite having a better defense on paper, New York has been worse each year in the wins column.
My money is on the Cowboys to best the Giants in 2018. They have a younger and more prolific quarterback, as well as a star running back who is coming off a half-season of play. New York has a solid quarterback nearing retirement and an unproven rookie running back. The Giants only leg up is at wide receiver, yet we don’t know how big of an advantage that will actually be.
If we call both teams’ defenses a wash, then I’m putting my money on the stars in Dallas to win at least one or two more games than their counterparts in New York. Betting on consistency and proven talent is a smart play, since we are already taking a major risk picking a team that is likely to come in second to the Eagles. The Cowboys have won with greater consistency and have a known strength with their running game. That is where my money is going in the NFC East for the NFL 2018 season.
Let’s discuss the long shot in Washington for a moment, because betting a small amount with the chance at big returns is always tempting. Are the Redskins worth such a wager in 2018? This is an interesting question, because they teetered on playoff relevance with Kirk Cousins at quarterback. Alex Smith is not a step back at the position, just a less flashy leader who may or may not find success outside of Andy Reid‘s system. A lot has to go right for Washington to win nine or more games and the division, but stranger things have transpired.
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The Redskins need to stay completely healthy and get resurgent seasons from their veterans. The Redskins also need their divisional peers to stumble for one reason or another. I’d likely look elsewhere for a long shot bet. The NFC East has potentially great quarterbacks leading every team. Those same teams also have strong running games.