NFL 2018 Predictions: Which team goes worst to first?

It happens every season. At least one team goes from worst to first, literally rising up from last place to win its division. Of the eight candidates, which team will pull it off this year? Your NFL 2018 predictions.

Forget about betting odds and returns on investments and all of that. If forced to choose one NFL

team that you know will win its division after finishing in last place in 2017, who do you go with? Who is this season’s worst-to-first?

This isn’t an outlandish target. This happens every year in the NFL, sometimes more than once. Last year, both the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Philadelphia Eagles went from worst to first. The season prior, the Dallas Cowboys completed the feat. And in 2015, the Washington Redskins won their division after finishing in last place. Perhaps the NFC East is propping this trend up on its own (keep that in mind!), but it happens quite often. Who pulls it off for the NFL 2018 season?

This year, our options for teams to jump from last place to division champion are as follows:

New York Jets
Cleveland Browns
Houston Texans
Denver Broncos
New York Giants
Chicago Bears
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
San Francisco 49ers

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the NFL 2018 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

Call me crazy, but I count as many as four teams who could make the leap this season. First, the teams that have no shot. The Jets, Browns, Bears, and Buccaneers are out. Either their competition is too stiff (NYJ, CHI) or they aren’t talented enough (CLE, TB).

That leaves four contenders. Houston and the Giants are in the mix because of down and decimated seasons in 2017. After losing the likes of Deshaun Watson and JJ Watt for the season, the Texans folded down to last place, but we can see the ceiling for this squad when fully healthy.

The same goes for the Giants. Odell Beckham is back from injury, and NY doubled down on offensive talent by taking Saquon Barkley with the second pick in the draft and revamping its offensive line.

As for Denver and San Francisco, quarterback overhauls changed the trajectory of these squads. Denver nabbed its quarterback this offseason, while the 49ers got theirs midway through last season. Those moves alone elevate these two teams to something better than “standard” last-place finishers.

More from NFL Spin Zone

I put San Francisco, though, as the least likely of this quartet to complete the deed. For one, the rest of the roster around Jimmy Garoppolo still has a ways to go. Secondly, the Los Angeles Rams are a loaded bunch at the top of the division.

Though a wager on the Giants would be intelligent, a definitive worst-to-first pick on them also ignores the talent of the Philadelphia Eagles. This team looks better than the one that just won the Super Bowl.

That leaves me with two AFC basement dwellers. It would be easy to tab the Texans as having the highest ceiling and moving on, but they also feel more volatile to me than the Denver Broncos. What if Watson doesn’t have the athleticism he had as a rookie? What if Watt is no longer the best defender in the sport thanks to numerous injury setbacks? If the running game crumbles behind a recovering D’Onta Foreman, what then? What if Tyrann Mathieu gets hurt again?

I’ve been heavy on the Broncos this offseason because I like the makeup of the roster. I also feel as though they have the best chance to go from last place to first place. This is partially due to them and the ceiling of the depth chart. I also am lower on the AFC West in general than others may be. With last-place schedules, the Broncos and Texans face off against each other in Week 9. Who knows; that outcome could be the difference in this competition.

Dan Salem:

It’s hard to accept that worst to first literally happens every season in the NFL, but stats like this are unimpeachable. It’s also hard to imagine the Jaguars and Eagles toppling from atop their respective divisions, even though both were basement dwellers only two years prior. Dallas fell off after rising to the top, as did the Redskins. Perhaps Philadelphia is more vulnerable than we’d like to believe. Regardless, at least one team is going to rise up during the NFL 2018 season.

You eliminated four teams right off the bat and it’s hard to argue with any of them. I’d love to include my New York Jets in this debate, but New England is still led by Tom Brady. They are not relinquishing the AFC East this season, no matter how good the Jets become. Chicago is in the same spot, because Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins lead two significantly better football teams than the Bears. Cleveland and Tampa Bay are intriguing, because everyone has a different opinion on who will actually win the AFC North and NFC South respectively. Yet no one thinks it will be the Browns or Buccaneers. Do I dare make an argument for Cleveland going from worst in the NFL to first in their division?

More from NFL Spin Zone

I can’t bring myself to do it, even though Tyrod Taylor is an excellent quarterback to lead the Browns this season. He always seems to find a way to win and Cleveland has a ton of talent around him. If we were placing wagers, I may put money on the Browns since the return is very high. Since we are making legitimate picks, I must look elsewhere to the same four teams you considered.

We must eliminate the 49ers because Los Angeles is that good and the Seahawks should not be overlooked with Russell Wilson under center. San Francisco’s competition is too steep, as you noted. I’m also eliminating the Texans for the same reason. The AFC South had two playoff teams last season and the Jaguars still look really good, especially on defense. This makes the chances of Houston shooting all the way up to the top rather slim, since they must pass Jacksonville, Tennessee and a potentially healthy Andrew Luck.

I’m left with the Denver Broncos, your pick, and the New York Giants, your favorite team. While Denver presents a strong case for an immediate turnaround, they are not my pick. The AFC West may be up for grabs, but Los Angeles and Kansas City both return strong teams. We also don’t know how good the Raiders will now be. They were a playoff team not that long ago. Denver is going to get stuck in the middle and I don’t trust them to top all of their division competition.

2019 Super Bowl: Your Best Bets Are in AFC West, NFC South

New York was great two seasons ago and still has much of the same star talent that shined that season. They bottomed out in no small part due to injury last year, and added a ton of talent in places that were previously roster holes. I don’t know how good the defense will be, but we have an idea of how great it can be from 2016. The same is true of the offense, which just added the hottest rookie in the game. It’s no coincidence that the NFC East has been won by three different teams over the last three seasons. None of them were the Giants. This division beats up on itself, but a last place schedule should help New York, even if it looks hard on paper.

Home/NFL