Oakland Raiders: Derek Carr deserves QB1 consideration in fantasy football

Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr‘s fantasy football value took a nosedive due to a play-calling switch and a back injury, but he’s primed for a back-bounce year.

In the NFL, it’s about what you’ve done lately. We often forget the big picture and take a laser focus on the previous year. Last offseason, analysts wondered if quarterback Derek Carr would look like the MVP-caliber player who led seven game-winning drives in 2016. Now, many question if he’s that good? Is the 27-year-old even a viable fantasy football option?

First, take a deep breath. Pause for a minute. What happened that caused Carr’s production to fall off in 2017? The Raiders booted Bill Musgrave and promoted then-quarterbacks coach Todd Downing to offensive coordinator. No big deal, right? Wrong.

Despite all the comparisons to Green Bay Packers signal-caller Aaron Rodgers, Carr absolutely needs to a good system in place to succeed like most quarterbacks in the league. It’s not a knock on his skill. Let’s just pump the brakes on comparing him to a six-time Pro Bowler, two-time league MVP and Super Bowl champion, who’s been breaking down defenses for a decade with the same head coach since he’s stepped on the field.

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We’ll finally see how good Carr can become as a signal-caller with the offense in the palm of his hands. Head coach Jon Gruden intends to have the 27-year-old drive the offensive vehicle, per Fresno Bee reporter Anthony Galaviz. “It will be more of a “green light” for Carr to change plays at the line of scrimmage this season,” the Raiders coach said.

Wait, there’s more from Galaviz’s talk with the Raiders lead skipper. “When Derek was at Fresno State, he called his own plays a lot of the time at the line of scrimmage in a no-huddle offense,” Gruden said. “He’s very good at recognizing coverages, recognizing blitzes.”

Gruden will allow Carr to do what he did best on the collegiate level. If he falters, the Raiders head coach and offensive coordinator Greg Olson can take over the reins until he’s ready to spread his own wings, which isn’t a bad thing.

It’s far better to allow an offensive-minded head coach run the show as opposed to someone with a defensive background such as Jack Del Rio or a first-time play-caller like Downing. The Raiders signal-caller comes into the upcoming year with a high floor in terms of statistical outlook.

Fantasy Football Breakdown

Gruden’s quote about Carr’s strengths in a no-huddle offense indicates a potential increase in offensive plays, leading to more opportunities to move the ball downfield (yards) and score (touchdowns).

The Raiders have several weapons to attack opposing defenses. Personally, based on career production from top to bottom, Oakland has the best wide receiver corps in the league. The offense features a trio of pass-catchers in Amari Cooper, Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant who are all capable of racking up 1,000-plus yards in a full 16-game slate. How many units field three wideouts with multiple 50-catch campaigns, one of them being in the recent past? Seth Roberts doesn’t quite cut it as a No. 3 wide receiver, but he’s a high-end No. 4.

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If you can’t decide which Raiders receiver to pick on draft day, just take Carr as your QB1 to cover the potential production the Raiders offense could generate in 2018. He’s playing with the best wide receiver group in his career.

Secondly, the top four running backs can all catch out of the backfield. We saw glimpses of DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard over the past two years. Marshawn Lynch has 272 catches for 2,130 yards and five campaigns with at least 25 receptions. Doug Martin logged 130 receptions for 1,091 yards over six terms.

Finally, don’t forget Jared Cook, who led the team in receiving yards last season with 688. At 6’5″, 254 pounds, the Raiders could utilize him as an oversized receiver in the offense. ” I didn’t know he could move like that,” Gruden said about the tight end via NBCS Bay Area reporter Scott Bair.

There’s nowhere to go but up for Carr’s production with a plethora of capable receivers all over the field. Also remember, he doesn’t throw too many interceptions. Even in a nightmarish 15-game season, the 27-year-old tossed 13 picks, which tied the 2015 campaign for the most in a single season.

Currently, the fantasy football calculator ranks the Raiders signal-caller as an 11th round pick in 12-team leagues, surprisingly one round behind Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes who’s played just one NFL game. The utter disrespect. If Carr falls that far, consider him a steal.

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In an offense that will likely feature more no-huddle, expect Carr to finally break the 4,000-yard mark. He fell 13 yards short in 2015 and 63 yards shy during the 2016 campaign. Depending on the down-and-distance, Oakland would likely turn to Lynch as a primary option near the goal line, which cuts into the passer’s touchdown total.

Nonetheless, expect Cooper and Bryant to stretch the field in between the 20-yard-lines. Nelson should emerge as a reliable red-zone option in the aerial attack.

Projected Stat line: 4,107 passing yards, 30 TDs, 11 INTs