Oakland Raiders: Reaction to Colin Cowherd’s 5-11 prediction

How did FS1’s Colin Cowherd come to the conclusion the Oakland Raiders would finish 5-11 and last in the AFC West? Is he accurate or off the mark?

Let’s preface this reaction with Colin Cowherd’s Oakland Raiders predictions over the past two years. He picked the Silver and Black to go 10-6 and win the AFC West in each of the past two seasons.

The FS1 talking head isn’t a team hater. In fact, he views quarterback Derek Carr as a quarterback on the rise.

In 2016, he fell two games short in the win column then went four games over in victories last year. Based on Cowherd’s 2018 projection, he’s stepping off the Silver and Black bandwagon, predicting a poor 5-11 record and last place in the AFC West:

What made FS1’s talking head turn the other way on the Raiders? Cowherd pointed out a shaky relationship between head coach Jon Gruden and general manager Reggie McKenzie, which hasn’t been confirmed by multiple reputable sources.

Above all, Cowherd isn’t sold on a triumphant nine-year comeback for head coach Jon Gruden. “This team has trainwreck written all over it,” he said.

The talk show host then pointed out question marks in the secondary, highlighted the perpetual problem at linebacker and prefers to take a wait-and-see approach before buying Carr and wideout Jordy Nelson as an effective tandem. These are all reasonable concerns.

Did Colin Cowherd Get it Right?

Strangely, Cowherd uses the Raiders’ negatives as fatal blows to their season. However, he feels an inexperienced quarterback, who’s made one start, behind what’s described as a “meh” offensive line drops one win off the Kansas City Chiefs record from the previous year. He also said they have s “brutal” starting stretch against tough opponents.

How does a first-year starter behind a mediocre front line not cause major concern for any team in a division with elite pass-rushers?

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Denver Broncos executive vice president of football operations John Elway contemplated firing head coach Vance Joseph after one season. At least we know Gruden can succeed as a head coach on this level. We can’t say the same for Joseph, who’s on the hot seat in just his second year.

The Los Angeles Chargers are a popular favorite to win the AFC West and rightfully so. They have the least amount of major question marks at critical positions and among the coaching ranks.

The defense vastly improved under defensive coordinator Gus Bradley. It seems 2014 first-rounder and Pro Bowl cornerback Jason Verrett will return to action after missing 27 games over the past two campaigns due to knee injuries. The offensive line should see improvement with Mike Pouncey at center. Wideout Mike Williams is finally healthy. At 6’4″, 220 pounds, he should help the Chargers’ red-zone efficiency with tight end Hunter Henry out for the year because of a torn ACL.

Cowherd whiffed on the Raiders’ projection and put too much weight on an irrelevant factor concerning the lame-duck stadium as the team prepares to move to Las Vegas in a few seasons. If anything, it’s motivation to deliver something special to locals before the physical relocation.

Secondly, a defensive-minded head coach and first-time play-caller had Carr’s ear in offensive decisions in 2017. Despite his extended absence, Gruden has always held an interest in developing quarterbacks. Greg Olson will likely serve as a liaison between the lead skipper and signal-caller. Nonetheless, he also brings a decade’s worth of experience as an offensive coordinator on top of prior experience with Carr during his rookie term.

Olson doesn’t have great success fielding top-10 offenses. Only the 2006 Los Angeles Rams fall into that category under head coach Scott Linehan. But, we all know Gruden will run the show in Oakland. In three out of four seasons as the Raiders head coach, he fielded top-eight offense in yards and points. In 2003, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranked 10th in yardage under his tutelage.

It’s fair to tread with caution on optimism for the Raiders’ upcoming season due to coaching uncertainties. However, Cowherd doesn’t acknowledge how wide open the AFC West looks at the moment.

Next: NFL 2018: Rookie class bold predictions

The Chiefs have explosive wideouts, but quarterback Patrick Mahomes will experience some bumps in the road through his development. How much do you trust Broncos quarterback Case Keenum after one solid year? Carr, a three-time Pro Bowler, will stand behind three multi-Pro Bowl offensive linemen, assuming left tackle Donald Penn returns from Lisfranc surgery.

Looking at the schedule and the talent on the roster, the Raiders shouldn’t have a record worse than 7-9. Barring an injury at quarterback, it certainly can’t get worse than last year’s 6-10 finish. Tuck Cowherd’s sound bite about the Raiders 2018 season in your back pocket. There’s a strong chance he’s short a few wins this year.