Fantasy Football: Evaluating Le’Veon Bell’s present, future value

Present

For the past few seasons, Le’Veon Bell has been an absolute terror in PPR leagues, nabbing 312 catches over his five-year career as a ball carrier. Even in standard leagues, Bell remains one of the elite talents at the RB spot, as he’s been able to uphold a lethal average of 129 scrimmage yards per game through his career thus far.

The good news? Bell is only 27, and it appears his best football is still ahead of him. He is coming off another productive season where he finished with 1,291 yards on the ground with nine touchdowns, along with 85 receptions/655 yards/two touchdowns through the air as well. More importantly, Bell managed to stay healthy all of 2017, one of the major concerns in regards to his overall value. Most importantly, Bell remains intact (for now) with perhaps the best core group of offensive players in the league in Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown.

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Here’s where things get cloudy.

Bell’s failed negotiations in 2018 closely mirror the same song and dance he did in 2017, where he skipped training camp and showed up to the Steelers facility six days before their week one visit in Cleveland. His stat line for Week 1? 32 yards on 10 attempts with three receptions for 15 yards.

Bell’s numbers steadily rose after week two, and obviously recovered to have another great season. Yet it is important to note in the first five weeks of the season, Bell failed to hit over 15 carries in three of fives games. Take what you want from that, but it was clear Pittsburgh was not pleased with how the running back handled things.

The loss of offensive coordinator Todd Haley should see some minor effects on Bell’s overall amount of touches as well. Say what you will about Haley’s situational play-calling, he was nothing short of superb in putting Bell in places to succeed, whether it be in the backfield or split-out as a receiver.

The new face of offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner brings a sense of uncertainty to this Steelers offense in 2018, as this will be Fichtner’s first time calling plays at the professional level. It’s unreasonable to assume Bell takes a huge dip in production simply due to a changing of the guard at offensive coordinator, yet it will be hard to replicate Haley’s success of feeding Bell in the right spaces.

The main concern of Bell’s present stock resides within the potential of Bell possibly skipping games. Per the current Collective Bargaining Agreement the players have with the league, Bell could theoretically not sign his tag until November and still have 2018 count as a full year accrued, so long as he completes 10 games. Amid all the speculation, I’m not buying into this one bit.

It’d be foolish for Bell to skip the first six games of the season, for competitive reasons in trying to win a championship, or for personal reasons for production to use as leverage in future contract negotiations. The preventative approach due to his injury history is the only feasible purpose, but even that argument becomes invalid due to him losing millions off the tag in not playing every game.

Despite masses of questions regarding Bell’s 2018 campaign, he still finds himself at the top of draft boards due to pure talent and a practically guaranteed heavy usage for what is likely his final year in Pittsburgh. Is he still number one pick material? Social media says no and brushes Le’Veon to the side.

While there is plenty of reason for concern, it’s highly unlikely Bell sits out at all this year. Should Le’Veon play in all 16 games, his numbers are probable to mirror those in 2017, thus giving him top pick consideration in all leagues/formats for this season.