Fantasy Football 2018: Draft this player at No. 6 pick

The Fantasy Football season is upon us. We know the top five players, meaning the No. 6 pick comes with a bevy of options. Yet one player holds the edge.

We are in peak fantasy football 2018 prep. Leagues begin drafting in just a few weeks. With that, a number of 2018 mysteries must be solved. One of the most pressing questions on our mind regards the first round. Namely, who should be the sixth player chosen in snake drafts?

We agree on who the top five players are this season. In some order, the top five includes Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley and David Johnson. That is one wide receiver and the top four running backs. But there is a break at this point. Who goes sixth for fantasy football in 2018?

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the Fantasy Football 2018 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

There are any number of contenders for pick six. A slew of second-tier running backs that fall into different categories grace the draft board. Breakout rookies entering their second year include Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, and Dalvin Cook. Veterans with blueprints of success are Melvin Gordon, Devonta Freeman, and Jordan Howard. The rookie with pedigree is Saquon Barkley.

We also have the batch of second-tier wide receivers after Brown: DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham.

I don’t know how someone could justify taking their top-ranked quarterback or tight end this early, but I suppose it is possible as well. But leaving those reaches out, that gives us at least 11 players who are viable options at the sixth overall pick. That’s just crazy!

I’ll try to whittle down the proceedings. This is just my opinion, but a few players can be ruled out of top-six discussion. Kamara could be the sixth-best player (or even one of the top two players) the first month of the season. After that, Mark Ingram returns from suspension, and Kamara returns to a timeshare, even if he’s the lead back now.

At the top of draft boards, the only thing that surely must be avoided (since so much else is unknown) is a timeshare. Kamara isn’t in one now, but he will be for three quarters of the regular season. This is also why I must rule out Freeman and Howard. I am not particularly worried about the triumphant return of Spencer Ware in Kansas City. Some may deem the Chiefs a RB timeshare, but I don’t think that will approach anything close to 50-50.

That leaves us with eight guys. Next, I would remove Fournette. He isn’t the elite receiving back some of his peers are. He also proved to be a bit of an injury/flight risk in year one. Playing in an offense where defenses will be keying on him, I’d stay away at No. 6.

I’d also stay away from Gordon. His upside isn’t as potent as casual fans would think. He has never topped 1,105 rushing yards or averaged even 4.0 yards per carry. A lot of his production is touchdown-dependent.

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Cook and Barkley are also worries. Coming off a major injury that sapped him of most of his rookie year, Cook has a high ceiling but too much unknown. And Barkley has never played a game in the NFL. Unless you’re in a keeper league, how can you justify the risk at six? A first-round pick, as the saying goes, cannot win a league, but it can lose it.

That brings me to four players. We have Hunt and the three wide receivers.

I find it hard to split the difference between any of the wide receivers. Jones’ offseason sit-out is worrisome. Beckham is coming off of injury. Hopkins has what can be termed another quarterback switch, though he is switching back to a QB he became familiar with to start last season. Are any of those factors enough to raise or drop one of the trio? So here is how I’d handicap the sixth overall fantasy football pick. It comes down to Kareem Hunt and your favorite non-Brown receiver.

Then the question becomes whether Hunt, as a RB, is more valuable than what a top WR can bring. To answer that, I’m going to look somewhere slightly down the draft board, when none of these guys will be available any longer.

Taking Hopkins/Beckham/Jones sixth overall means you still have to draft a RB. Even waiting just two extra rounds, for example, leaves us with questionable options for starting backs. Of the players projected between the 24th and 36th picks (a hypothetical third round), there are zero sure-thing RBs. LeSean McCoy may see his stock drop even out of this range once more information comes to light on his legal troubles. Other options are rookies with no experience, young veterans with questionable timeshare opportunities, and Joe Mixon.

On the other hand, grabbing Hunt early and waiting to select a wide receiver offers so much more value. Adam Thielen, Tyreek Hill, and Doug Baldwin are just a few of the number-one wide receivers still available in this hypothetical third round. These guys all topped 1,000 yards and 100 targets a season ago. There is no contest between who feels more reliable.

The sixth pick can’t just come down to which specific player is likely to be better. It has to work in connection with what would be left over. Essentially, would you rather have Beckham, a second-round pick, and Kenyan Drake or Hunt, the second, and Thielen? This isn’t a perfect encapsulation because someone could obviously draft both Beckham and Thielen, but that would leave their roster in even worse RB shape. Brace yourself before looking past the top 40 players for reliable backs. Hunt is my sixth overall pick.

Dan Salem:

I’d laugh out loud if so many fantasy football 2018 owners aren’t going to make the very mistake you warned about. Drafting the best player available is not the way to build a championship team. You absolutely need a running back to rely upon every week, as well as two wide receivers that are locks in your lineup. But I would expand this line of thinking to the entire first round, or the first ten picks at least. You must ensure you leave round one with a bonafide starter in your lineup at running back, or one of the three best wide receivers.

Arguing against this logic is extremely tempting. Quarterbacks score the most points and the tight end position is so thin that grabbing the top guy makes sense. Yet there are enough signal callers for every team to have 1.5 great starting options, plus the amount of points a tight end scores is small by comparison to any other offensive position. Why not simply grab the best player available with the sixth pick? Isn’t that player Odell Beckham who surely will be on Brown’s level in a revamped offense, entering a contract year in prove-it mode?

Picking Beckham comes with risk, but he is a solid choice. So is Julio Jones. Yet who is going to be your running back come round two? If you’re in an auction, then this question is about who you spend the most money on. Assume the top five guys have been purchased. Now you must get the sixth best player, out-bidding others to secure him. Pick six must be a running back. The sixth best player, when value is considered, is a running back. Including Antonio Brown in the top five was hard, but he is that much better than his peers. That leaves a pool of up to ten rushers to pick from.

In case you missed our fantasy football 2018 top five debate, I nearly included Kareem Hunt in my top five. He was edged out because of a lack of touchdowns. He has to be the sixth pick, because he’s extremely valuable to his team’s offensive success. Plus, he scored a ton of fantasy points last season. The risk of picking McCoy is too high here. The same goes with Barkley.

More Fantasy Football: Top 5 Players Debate

I’m not worried about missing Mark Ingram for a month, so picking Kamara and Ingram is a solid draft strategy. Ingram is the prize, however. One that might fall into round two or three. Picking Ingram in round one is not bad, as long as you can fill his hole for four weeks. This is much easier to do in September, than in November. Just ask Ezekiel Elliott owners. This is still a risk, one that does not exist with Hunt. He’s your sixth pick for fantasy football 2018.

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