Fantasy Football 2018: How to draft quarterbacks since no one agrees

Quarterback might be the most misunderstood position in fantasy football 2018. How valuable are they and are there really 20+ players worthy of starter status? We debate how to actually draft your quarterback, since no one can seem to agree.

The landscape of quarterbacks this year for fantasy football is a fascinating one. In the past, the story went that there were hardly enough quality quarterbacks to fill half the league. If you missed out on a premiere one, you were screwed. Then, the story shifted.

Suddenly, there were a bunch of mediocre quarterbacks who could hold their own. The boom of passing in the league allowed many, many guys to be useful, if not actually good. That meant waiting on a quarterback was the only smart play. Why spend an early round pick when someone 10, 11, even 12 rounds later could supply 85 percent of the production?

Now, it feels like we are in a third wave that has grown out of that second scenario. There are actually a lot of good quarterbacks in the league, but there is a very small upper tier of the position. In fact, an argument could be made that the top tier of the position is one player deep. How do you draft your quarterback in fantasy football 2018?

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the Fantasy Football 2018 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

Do you have an argument against Aaron Rodgers being the top fantasy quarterback? If so, who is your replacement? I think Rodgers is a clear number one. And there is a slight drop-off between him and a couple other veteran passers.

After Rodgers, we have Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Russell Wilson in some order. Brady is the legend; Brees is the accumulator; Wilson is the Russell Westbrook of the NFL. But Brady has fewer weapons around him than one would wish to see; Brees took a major step back to the Saints’ running game in 2017; and Wilson is unlikely to lead the league in touchdowns again.

I think those are the four safest quarterbacks to rely on, but I don’t foresee all that much separation between them and others. They just have fewer questions. I count 15 legitimate fantasy quarterback options and another 14 passers who I wouldn’t mind using for a stretch of the season or who would be perfectly fine to start every week in a two-QB league. That is 29 guys!

The only three teams, at this juncture, who do not have a passer worthy of starting in a two-QB league are the Bills, the Jets and the Ravens. And even two of them have supreme keeper-league options in Sam Darnold and Lamar Jackson. I suppose the Bills also have this in Josh Allen, but no thanks.

How does this depth impact the drafting of a fantasy quarterback?

The tiered depth of this season actually changes my normal opinion of this topic. In the past, I would advice waiting and waiting and waiting some more before drafting a QB. This strategy would seem to play this year with 29 plausible options. However, there is separation at the top. It could be worth reaching for Rodgers.

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It could also make sense this season to draft out of order a guy with major questions but high upside. In this case, I could see taking Deshaun Watson, Jimmy Garoppolo or Carson Wentz as the second overall QB, ahead of those safe vets. I could see taking Andrew Luck much higher than ordinarily comfortable. That is because a misfire/recurrence of injury wouldn’t hurt all that much. There will surely be replacements available later in the draft or after the draft entirely. But a hit on any of these guys would deliver an All-Pro passer and perhaps the top fantasy quarterback in the sport.

The other potential strategy would be to hold off on drafting any QB at all until your last few auction dollars or last rounds before defense and kicker. Dak Prescott is going in the 13th round. Derek Carr is going in the 15th. Last year, in down seasons, they both eclipsed 200 fantasy points. Prescott topped 260 points and finished as the 22nd-best fantasy player, regardless of position. Drafting him with something like the 125th pick sure seems like good value. Quarterback is almost entirely good value this year.

Dan Salem:

There are a ton of excellent quarterback options for fantasy football 2018, however, the top 5 signal callers absolutely deserve to be picked early. Just as the wide receiver position is rather deep, but the top five stand well above the rest, I feel the same about quarterbacks. The difference is that our top five quarterbacks are difficult to nail down. We must trust our instincts and look at a team’s overall offense to decide.

Aaron Rodgers is the top quarterback. He will be in prove-it mode after missing last season and now has a running game and former Pro Bowl tight end to work with. Rodgers is nearly on Antonio Brown‘s level in terms of being ahead of his positional peers.

Brady is not in my top ten at all, as he comes with too much risk and little upside in 2018. The players I’m targeting either were great last season, or should bounce back this season. This makes spending auction dollars or a high draft pick a balancing act indeed. My draft strategy is simple. Select a star running back and two star wide receivers that you can count on every week for points. Then pick your quarterback.

This places your quarterback selection in round four at the earliest, or as the fourth of fifth highest spend in an auction. I’d throw more money or an earlier pick at a second running back, or another top-five receiver if they are available. Otherwise, pick your quarterback, just don’t overspend! Even Rodgers shouldn’t go higher than round four.

I love Jared Goff this season, as well as Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins. My expectations are tempered for Carson Wentz and Jimmy Garoppolo. Let other owners overspend on them. They play in divisions with very good defenses and neither has a large sample size of fantasy excellence. Who else might return to greatness for fantasy football 2018? Don’t rule out Philip Rivers, who always gets his fantasy points, as well as Derek Carr in Jon Gruden’s new offense.

Load up on running backs and wide receivers, because even Eli Manning is likely a solid fantasy option this season. There are very few bad quarterback options, but a ton of players who don’t deserve to be picked before round five. Only Rodgers, Brees and Wilson truly have proven their value is that high.