Fantasy Football 2018: When to draft Aaron Rodgers, Rob Gronkowski

The top quarterback and tight end in Fantasy Football 2018 come with obvious benefits, but how early is too early to draft each player? With running backs so scarce after round two, the debate on the top QB and TE is fierce indeed.

When discussing the strategy to employ to get the best roster out of a fantasy football 2018 snake draft, there were a few positions that didn’t really enter into the discussion. It was just a given that spending most of your early draft picks on running backs and, to a lesser extent, wide receivers, was the way to go. Quarterbacks and tight ends didn’t even come up.

The numbers are staggering when it comes to fantasy football quarterbacks and tight ends. But how you interpret them is critical, because not all decisions are created equal. When is the best round to draft a top QB or TE in fantasy football 2018 snake drafts? How early is too early? This is a heated debate.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the Fantasy Football 2018 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

There are some pretty basic reasons for excluding QBs and TEs from the early rounds of snake drafts. For quarterbacks, there are enough useful passers as to make reaching for the top guy silly. Sure, quarterbacks tend to score more fantasy points than any other position, but that benefits the QBs top to bottom. For example, Blake Bortles is not a good fantasy quarterback. He registered the 13th-most fantasy points for his position last year under standard scoring, making him a bench player or free agent in most leagues.

However, he scored more points than all but two non-QBs in the league! In 2016, the situation was even worse. There were 22 quarterbacks who scored more than the third-ranked non-QB. Why bother drafting a QB early when even guys outside the top 20 at the position outscore All-Pro runners and receivers?! Taking it one step further, the difference between Bortles and the second- or third-ranked QB from a year ago was roughly 50 points. Over the course of the season, that’s between three and four points per week; hardly worth drafting someone 10 rounds earlier.

As for tight ends, the position is not nearly as deep as QB. And they don’t score anywhere close to as many fantasy points. But that’s an equal opportunity degeneration as well. Last year, no tight end ranked in the top 45 players. There were only five who scored in the top 100 players. The year before, the situation was even worse (yet again). The first tight end ranked 65th overall, and we again only had five in the top 100 players. So how can you justify drafting any of them early when none of them become worth it?

But instead of simply ruling out the possibility, I’m wondering if it’s possible to build a competent roster when drafting a top QB and TE. We know someone will draft these guys, even if they drop a round or two from projections. Even the staunchest of owners to this mindset will give in at some point. With Aaron Rodgers or Rob Gronkowski staring you in the face as the “best available player”, how long can you resist?

According to Fantasy Pros expert conglomerations, the first TE off the board is going 23rd overall, and it’s Gronk. The first QB gets taken 32nd, and it is indeed Rodgers. Yikes. Those are some early selections, third- and fourth-round picks respectively.

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There are even more downsides to this approach than the numbers I already outlined. We don’t even know if Gronk and Rodgers are going to be the top guys at their positions. It is perfectly likely that they will not be because of injury or bad luck or a down season. And that makes it even sillier to pull this draft stunt.

The same statement about injury or bad luck can be said about any player taken 23rd or 32nd overall, but even the ideal outcome doesn’t benefit the TE or QB. Remember, Gronk would be one of the lowest-scoring third-round picks in the league, and that’s IF he finishes as the best tight end. And Rodgers would lead the league in fantasy points as the top QB, but a dozen other guys won’t be too far behind him, and they can be had a dozen rounds later.

We get it. But what if an owner does want Gronk and Rodgers? Let’s say they have a lineup of Ezekiel Elliott, Davante Adams, Gronk, and Rodgers through four rounds. Every pick is plausible for selecting third overall, and it looks spectacular, right? But after four picks, they are going to be the only owner still looking for both a starting RB and a starting WR. That is a huge hole to dig. The wide receiver shouldn’t be too hard to come by within the next two rounds, but what of RB? And what of bench depth and bye week fill-ins at those vital spots?

The top-ranked RB after round four is Jay Ajayi, a player expected to share carries with somewhere between two and six other Eagles backs. (Just look at that depth chart!) Someone like Mark Ingram could be a smart stash for this roster, but what of the first month? Marshawn Lynch feels safe. What it comes down to is gobbling up veterans that other owners are disenchanted by or taking long shots and hoping some hit.

Everyone does this in later rounds, but this owner will be forced to gamble on a starter, which is a key difference. Someone like a Rashaad Penny or Royce Freeman is going to be slotted in as a starter Week 1 and needs to hit. That is why this becomes so risky. It is certainly possible to generate a championship-winning roster with Gronkowski and Rodgers on it. But those selections make everything else harder.

Dan Salem:

Let me first say that you are not wrong, but you are ABSOLUTELY wrong in regards to the logic behind your thinking. It is obviously smarter to fill both running back slots before taking a quarterback or tight end. Yet it is not smart to completely avoid the top three quarterbacks or top five tight ends just because you have a running back spot to fill. Let me explain.

First and foremost, we only have a partial picture of which players will start and succeed for each team during the pre-season. Unlike baseball where it behooves an owner to give their players at least a month to develop as the season starts, we all need an extremely short leash in fantasy football 2018. That leash is two weeks long at most, but in some cases it should not last past week one. The waiver wire after week one is the place to find and grab a missing starter or three. Those guys will likely be good for another week or two, so keep streaming. That alone is reason enough to not be overly worried about filling that final running back spot. Sure, you are sacrificing potential points in week one, but you are making up for them in other ways.

You noted that the best quarterback “only” garners an owner an extra three or four points each week. Be honest, how many times did you win or lose last season by fewer than five points? It was certainly in half of your head to head matchups, so those few points make a huge difference. Grabbing one of the top five tight ends, the only players at the position who crack the top 100 fantasy players, will also garner your team an extra three to five points per week.

It’s harder to identify who those top five tight ends might be, but the risk of passing on them is too high. You are basically sacrificing five points or more each week. Add that to the three points you sacrifice by waiting on your quarterback, and you now have at least eight points to make up. Is your fourth round running back getting you at least eight points more than that late round option?

This is not a black and white decision, which makes playing fantasy football 2018 so much fun! I would inherently pick my second running back before taking a top quarterback or tight end. But I will not be selecting Joe Mixon over Aaron Rodgers in the third or fourth round. I don’t trust Mixon enough, but Rodgers is gold. Dion Lewis in the seventh round is just as appealing an option at running back, if not more so. Take the points in your draft and be ready to hit the waiver wire. You can sacrifice week one, but you can’t sacrifice eight points a week all season.