Fantasy Football 2018: Top 5 potential busts, non-quarterback edition

Avoiding fantasy busts is nearly as important as drafting breakout stars. Who are the top five fantasy football 2018 busts? We’ve picked three running backs and two wide receivers with major red flags.

One cannot properly prepare for their fantasy football 2018 draft by simply highlighting sleepers and breakout players. They must also keep a watch out for pending busts. The fantasy football draft parallels the regular season. An owner cannot win the title in the first few rounds, but they sure can lose it.

The simplest recipe for a fantasy disaster is drafting players who get injured and miss all or most of the season. That is not what locating a bust is about. Anyone can get hurt. Anyone can go down for the season. A bust is something actually worse: someone who plays all or most weeks but never performs.

High pedigree players get left in the lineup with the assumption that they will work out the kinks. If they never do, it craters an entire season. A weekly dead spot is so much worse than someone being put on IR. Who are the top five fantasy football 2018 busts? We’ve picked the players, quarterbacks not included.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the Fantasy Football 2018 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

To qualify as a bust, there is a strict set of circumstances that I am making up right now. A player must be taken within the first three rounds of the draft (or be one of the 30-36 most expensive players in auctions). They must be drafted as a starter too. If someone works their roster to take three straight wide receivers when their leagues only require two starters, the third is a calculated risk/trade asset. He can’t bust. The other, specific player I’m removing from consideration is LeSean McCoy. He could face a lengthy suspension at any moment, which would obviously submarine his fantasy value.

My first bust is Alvin Kamara, currently being drafted as the seventh-overall player. In other words, people deem him a plausible candidate for the highest scoring fantasy player in the sport. But, to me, his rookie season seems unsustainable, even as he draws a greater load in the first four weeks of the season. Kamara scored 13 touchdowns last year. That alone is incredibly unlikely to repeat, even with a lot more touches.

He averaged a ludicrous 6.1 yards per carry. That won’t repeat and will surely suffer as he becomes the focal point in the early going. The kicker here is that if he fails to repeat his exceptional heights early on, Mark Ingram returns in Week 5 to vulture away touches and perhaps retake over the job of starting running back. It is a precarious spot indeed.

Christian McCaffrey also bothers me, especially as a borderline first-round pick. You highlighted one of his positional peers, C.J. Anderson, as a potential sleeper this season. The reason that is a good pick is because McCaffrey, the de facto starting back for Carolina, wasn’t really a good running back last year. He was an excellent receiver, but if the receiving chances dry up at all, can he stay on the field as an every down back? He sure is being drafted like one.

More from NFL Spin Zone

• Dallas Cowboys made the trade everyone else should have made
• Pittsburgh Steelers rookie sleeper everyone should be talking about
• Anthony Richardson putting jaw-dropping talent on display immediately
• Denver Broncos’ stud wide receiver might be out for a while
• Washington Commanders: Three takeaways from win over Ravens

I feel the same way about Jerick McKinnon. No one knows how he will adjust to being a defensive focal point and three-down back. He is a versatile player, but versatility doesn’t automatically translate into sustained success. He has some semblance of Kamara’s worry here. As the chances grow, how much does the efficiency drop?

There are some injury risks in the first three rounds, and there are guys with lower ceilings who could end up feeling disappointing even if they don’t bust. But those are my three bust candidates. I’d be worried about building my team around any as my top running back.

Dan Salem:

This is an extremely challenging exercise, but a necessity for Fantasy Football 2018 success. You identified three strong bust candidates at running back. I have two potential wide receiver busts to round out our top five. No one is safe from bust status, but these two receivers are on my do not draft list. The red flags are flying.

My first bust is DeAndre Hopkins of the Houston Texans. Hopkins scored 13 touchdowns last season, which he is unlikely to repeat in 2018. The year prior he had only four, with 11 before that and six before that. Do you see the pattern?

Hopkins has a similar pattern with his yardage production, meaning this season he is likely to regress in both yards and touchdowns. Furthermore, he was one of the only bright spots in Houston’s offense last year. He was the Texans’ entire offense. With Watson back, Hopkins is going to see the ball less because his quarterback is so dynamic. Because Hopkins is being drafted as a No. 1, I would stay away. He is unlikely to reach such fantasy heights this season.

Julio Jones also scares me. He rarely finds the end zone, reaching 10 touchdowns in a season only once during his entire career. Yes, Jones has consistently put up yardage, but Atlanta’s offense is now questionably dominant. His yards per game have dropped each of the last two seasons, so look elsewhere for your number one guy. Bust potential is swarming around Jones.

When it comes to fantasy football 2018 busts, we have to trust our instincts. Who do you think will bust this season? Comment below with the player(s) you are actively avoiding on your fantasy teams.