Who will be the starting running back for the New England Patriots this season? More importantly, which player will be the most productive on the field and for fantasy football? Its an annual question with at least five viable answers in 2018.
The position of running back possesses a strong polarity. On the one hand, it lends itself perfectly to the idea of a position battle. Teams routinely have five or more backs on their preseason roster and occasionally even bring that many onto the active roster in the regular year. Since no running back takes 100 percent of a team’s snaps, there needs to be depth, and the hierarchy of that depth needs to be determined.
On the other hand, running back can’t really have a serious position battle because, regardless of who “wins”, numerous backs are going to see large amounts of action each and every week. The loser of a position battle at RB could still be used almost half the time, or in goal-line situations, or as a third-down back, etc. This is never more true than on the New England Patriots, yet we must still answer the question. Who will be the team’s starting running back this season?
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the New England Patriots in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
Todd Salem:
In New England this year, a backfield committee feels inevitable. At the same time, the hierarchy needs to be determined. There are six names to know and four leading candidates. The half dozen viable NFL backs are Rex Burkhead, Sony Michel, James White, Jeremy Hill, Brandon Bolden, and Mike Gillislee. The latter two feel like long shots to be involved in a major way, if they even make the team, but I have a hard time separating the top four.
White feels like he would be fourth in line to an outsider; nothing more than a rich man’s third-down back. But inside the organization, Tom Brady says he feels like White “never makes a mistake.” White is deemed a “reliable and stabilizing force” by the local reporters. He is a playoff hero. With Burkhead and Michel both recently having minor knee issues, maybe this is White’s backfield to lead.
But White does fit the mold of a prototypical receiving back. And Burkhead is a versatile player. And the Patriots just spent a surprising first-round draft pick on Michel. And on top of all that, Hill is looking slimmer and livelier than he has in years.
Hill had 29 rushing touchdowns in the first three years of his career. Only 22 backs in the history of the sport (only 18 in the Super Bowl era) have topped that mark. But he completely fell out of use in year four and is no guarantee to even make the New England Patriots’ roster. Teams with roster spot constraints can’t afford to use one on a one-dimensional runner. The Patriots, especially, expect a lot from their backs. Hill doesn’t offer that.
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Michel may not either. Can he pass block and pick up blitzes properly? Can he be a big threat in the passing game? He wasn’t in college. He also was never a starter in college except when Nick Chubb couldn’t go. He averaged fewer than 13 carries per game in three of his four collegiate seasons. I think he makes the most sense as the Pats’ third option, at least from the start.
That leaves a split between Burkhead and White, with each getting less than a normal timeshare thanks to Michel. Burkhead, if healthy, becomes the starter, but White would play more on specific drives or in specific games depending on the opponent. It’s a fantasy nightmare but should produce an effective backfield for Tom Brady and company, especially if the staff finds a way to get the best out of Michel.
Dan Salem:
You could have literally written the exact same thing about the New England Patriots’ backfield over the last five seasons, replacing names with the set of running backs for that given year. This is a recurring story every August, one that seems to resolve itself annually by mid-September. Who will the Patriots count on to run the football?
Last season, it was Dion Lewis who ultimately garnered the majority of touches and number one duty in the New England backfield. Fantasy football owners failed to scoop up Lewis early on, at least in our league, leaving him for me to add off the free agent wire early on in 2017. He had a stellar season, leading to a lucrative contract from another football team.
The moral of this story is simple, don’t believe the local headlines in August. New England is deliberately deceiving everyone, including its own fans. They don’t want their week one opponent to know who to game-plan for. That is the theory which gives the New England Patriots all of the credit.
New England got blown out in Week 1 last season, so perhaps the opposite is more likely. They don’t know who to count on yet, because they keep auditioning new players every offseason. It seemed uncharacteristic for the team to reach on a first round running back. This tells me that Michel cannot be ignored… at least in September. He will get his shots…at least for a series or two in game No. 1. New England is known for having an extremely short leash.
The team’s philosophy is simple. Any player can run well behind a great offensive line, so ensure we have a great offensive line. New England has had just that and does everything possible to maintain it, giving a five-year extension to guard Shaq Mason earlier this week. The Patriots also brought two new running backs to practice this week, adding to the confusion.
Considering that White’s career trajectory looks eerily similar to Lewis’ prior to last season, my money is on him emerging from the crowd. He’s spent his entire career with the Patriots, playing in nearly every game the last three seasons. Furthermore, his touches have gone up year after year in the running game and the passing game. White is a dual threat and will ultimately be the biggest presence in New England’s offense.