Cleveland Browns: 4 Thoughts for the 2018 season

The 2018 season is upon us and the Cleveland Browns seem almost ready for it. With Sunday fast approaching, here are 4 thoughts for this year.

The Cleveland Browns kick off the 2018 season Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers. For as long as it feels like the offseason has taken, it seems like the Browns could use another week to get their ducks in a row. Unfortunately, that’s not an option and the game counts whether they’re ready or not.

Year three of the Hue Jackson era comes with certain expectations. After one win in 32 attempts, Jackson has put it all on the line, praising new general manager John Dorsey and the roster, talking about how confident he is in this group and how he feels they are ready to win. He better be as if not, this season could go south in a hurry and there won’t be anyone to hide behind.

Meanwhile, the Browns appear to have some genuine star power on this team. From Myles Garrett to Duke Johnson and hopefully the return of a healthy, functional Josh Gordon, the Browns have playmakers. They need them to stay healthy and need other players to step up to fill in the gaps, but there’s reason for optimism coming into this season and being able to bank on certain players as opposed to hoping they will perform.

So with all that in mind, let’s jump into this.

I think the talent is better than the coaching staff.

The team is young and much of it still has to learn how to win, which is its own process and takes some time. However, Hue Jackson in particular has held the team back in two seasons in terms of wins and even with Todd Haley as the offensive coordinator, there’s little reason to believe that won’t be the case.

Specifically, think back to the first two years of Jackson’s coaching and how many times the Browns would give up points before the half simply because of poor clock management. Not understanding that they need to use more of the clock to prevent a productive possession by the opponent or poor timeout usage creating an opportunity. The opponent gets an extra field goal or worse, a touchdown and a team that was already at a disadvantage in terms of talent has to overcome this deficit.

I think Myles Garrett is going to get 20 sacks.

This number may seem like a random number, but on an injured ankle, rookie Myles Garrett racked up seven sacks in 11 games last year. Just taking that pace over the entire 16 game schedule, he’s up to 10. Now, fully healthy and improved (hold that thought), Garrett seems primed to double his production from last year.

When Garrett entered the league and Bruce Smith was talking to him about his game, the issue Smith noted for Garrett to address was his first step. In watching him in training camp and the preseason, Garrett has worked hard to improve that area of his game and for as scary as he was already, he’s now a freakishly gifted 280-pound man who is also got an explosive first step.

Teams can double and even try to triple Garrett, but they can move him around and he’s just that special where he’s going to rack up numbers and keep offensive coordinators up at night.

I think the defense will have moments of brilliance, but still falter in key spots.

Gregg Williams is an interesting topic in that the way he calls defenses is pretty unique. He calls defense like he’s calling offense. Most defenses are called in terms of trying to cover everything and avoid getting gouged in an attempt to get off the field.

Williams doesn’t seem to buy into this philosophy at all. He’s looking to attack and score points in the form of making plays. As a result, Williams tries to cover everything but he’s willing to take risks, leave windows in the hopes that he’s going to get to the ball before it’s exposed and beaten.

While most defenses are trying to get off the field in three plays, Williams seems to look at it as three opportunities to attack, wreak havoc on the passer or make a play behind the line of scrimmage and maybe cause a turnover. As much as he wants the opponent to punt, surrendering a first down just means more opportunities to attack.

With that in mind, think back to last year where the defense would completely shut down some plays as if they knew the play, getting to the ball carrier like a pack of wild dogs. It’s also easy to remember when they didn’t, got exposed and beaten pretty significantly, giving up explosive plays and points.

With more talent, particularly in the secondary, the Browns defense should be better this year. Able to cover longer, this should produce more pressure on the quarterback, hopefully more sacks and turnovers. Turnovers were a huge problem last year, a big focus this year, which looked great in the preseason shutout of the Philadelphia Eagles.

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There will be parts of games, maybe a full game, where the Browns defense will overwhelm the opposing offense, completely shut them down and potentially win it by themselves. The flip side of that is in the same vein, there will be parts of games or entire games where Gregg Williams is powerless to do anything to even slow down an offense. They’ll quickly diagnose and find the holes in the defense for some big plays, scoring plays.

The feast or famine nature of a Williams defense is simply who he is. He’s always going to go for the big score and when it works, it’s a lot of fun because everyone is flying around, super aggressive and making plays. But when it doesn’t, it can go bad in a hurry.

Add in the fact that Denzel Ward is being asked to do a lot. A talented cover corner, he’s a rookie with enormously high draft position will likely get unrealistic expectations partly due to the incredible and historic rookie year his former Ohio State teammate Marshon Lattimore had a year ago.

Ward will likely be fine, have a good year, but assuming he’s healthy for the entire season, he will get beat, have a bad half, a bad game and the Browns will lose in part because of it.

I think the Browns will finish with 4 or 5 wins.

There are a lot of reasons for this, not the least of which is a pretty brutal schedule. It appears as though the Pittsburgh Steelers are desperately trying to do the Browns a favor with the mess they have going on with Le’Veon Bell and their own inclination to play down to teams at times.

Nevertheless, that is an incredibly difficult game, especially when the Browns are still messing around with their offensive line and trying to figure out the defensive line with all of the late acquisitions they made. Those moves could pay of handsomely down the road, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if it was slightly clunky to start.

If the Browns lose their opening game, they immediately have to go play a team with Super Bowl aspirations in the New Orleans Saints on the road. The New Jets are a very winnable, frankly a must win game for the Browns week 3 before they make the obnoxious road trip to Oakland which is always a difficult game even if the Raiders are terrible.

Basically, the fear is the Browns find themselves 2-4 or worse and whatever good intentions the players had to truly giving Hue Jackson the benefit of the doubt in his third year disappear and he loses the team. They aren’t going to quit on him and just stop playing, but there will a sense of despair and running out the clock on the year.

Much may change between then and now, but the vast majority of the winnable games for the Browns appear to be later in the year and the hope is they won’t be in a downward spiral that they are unable to capitalize and build some momentum for the next season.

This is all before mentioning injuries. There were people suggesting the Browns could go 8-8 last year before they went 0-16. In addition to having the worst quarterback situation a Browns team has had since Tim Couch suffered a season-ending hand injury before the 2000 season, the Browns lost critical players to injury.

Myles Garrett suffering a nasty high ankle sprain from being stepped on is where it started, but it went to Jamie Collins suffering a season-ending knee injury on an interception, Joe Thomas suffering what turned out to be a career-ending tricep injury, and Emmanuel Ogbah suffering a season-ending broken foot. The Browns were thin anyway, but add in critical injuries to key players and it’s easy to see how the team goes south quickly.

The Browns have more depth this year, but there are still a number of key players and a few positions where a significant injury would be devastating to the team’s chances (knock on wood).

Four to five wins would represent improvement, but obviously wouldn’t be satisfying. And as fun as certain aspects of the Browns are going to be (have you seen Myles Garrett?) there are likely to be some significant frustrations. Yes, the Browns have more veterans on their team, but they have young players that will make young player mistakes that will likely be costly.

And again, coaching miscues that will remind everyone that when Hue Jackson would go in the lake, there were more than a few fans hoping they’d have the honor of holding his head under until the bubbles stopped.

The Browns could take a significant step forward while still having all of the telltale signs of being a young team that can’t afford injuries and is being held back by coaching. The overall takeaway from this year, even if they only win four games, should be that they are prepared to take a major step forward the following year. They just need the right catalyst in the form of additional talent, development of the talent they already have and then the right coaching staff that unlocks their potential.

Consider the fact that at least right now, it appears that just two of the Browns picks in the 2018 draft class appear set to start — Denzel Ward and Antonio Callaway. Baker Mayfield, Austin Corbett, Nick Chubb, Chad Tho- well, not him. He’s genuinely awful, but Genard Avery and Damion Ratley are also players the Browns are hoping provide major contributions, be it this year or later. It’s not difficult to see how this team might not be ready to quite click until next year.