NFL Week 4, 2018: Best picks against the spread (ATS)

Forget last week, because it was an anomaly. NFL Week 4 is when the league settles and teams finally show their true colors. These are your best picks against the spread, four teams who’ve earned your money.

A number of very high lines dominate the NFL Week 4 discussion. Five teams are giving at least a touchdown. Yet after Week 3’s upset platter, how confident can one feel in backing a big favorite? Only three teams remain undefeated straight up, and four teams remain undefeated against the spread. That is the definition of parity.

We may be going completely against that trend, assuming the winless clubs will revert to the mean at some point soon. Nothing else feels reliable at this point, especially the “winning” teams giving up lots of points this week. Its still September, so take points where you can get them. These are your best picks against the spread for NFL Week 4. All lines are via Odds Shark.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL Week 4 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Dan Salem’s 2018 record ATS: 3-3
Todd Salem’s 2018 record ATS: 1-5

Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS:

Houston Texans +1 at Indianapolis Colts
Denver Broncos +5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

This week, I’m backing two teams who have yet to collect a win against the spread. They are each going against divisional foes playing above their heads. Indianapolis is only 1-2 itself, so the Colts aren’t pulling a Miami move here. Nevertheless, they hung with Philadelphia all day on Sunday, essentially putting up their second straight impressive performance on the road. And Kansas City is the hottest team in the AFC, with Pat Mahomes topping even the Fitzmagic in Tampa Bay.

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These two situations breed opportunity. Houston is more talented than Indy. It has yet to show it, but JJ Watt finally broke out last week against New York. That could be the jump start the defense needs. If this game was played in Week 1, Houston would have been a multi-point road favorite. Thanks to competitive Indy performances, I’m getting a point instead.

And in Denver, what better way to jump start its own offense than to play against the Chiefs defense? KC is piling up points but also, not so quietly, has one of the worst defenses in football. The Broncos feel undervalued after playing in a tough spot in Baltimore.

Maybe both Houston and Denver remain winless ATS after this week, but I’d likelier bet on those streaks ending than undefeated teams continuing to defy the odds in the other direction.

Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS:

Detroit Lions +3 at Dallas Cowboys
New York Jets +9 at Jacksonville Jaguars

I learned my lesson the hard way last week about giving up points, especially on the road. In NFL Week 4 I’m backing two road teams who are being undervalued and getting points. Their opponents have shown a lack of consistency and appear vulnerable after losing efforts last week. It’s the perfect opportunity!

Detroit finally showed up and made the Patriots look foolish in Week 3. They are probably not as good as that victory, or as bad as their first two losses. But it doesn’t matter, because the Cowboys can barely score points, let alone stop anyone defensively. This is a great opportunity for Matthew Stafford to have his patented breakout game against suspect defense. I like the Lions momentum and am happy to grab a few points along with it.

20 Bold predictions for NFL Week 4. dark. Next

The New York Jets are another team that is being overlooked, despite the fact that they lost by only eight points and four points respectively the last two weeks. Jacksonville has a great defense, yet I’m seriously questioning their offense right now.

New York has been able to cause fits for the offenses they have faced, and considering what Tennessee did to Blake Bortles last week, I’m pretty confident about the Jets doing the same. I would avoid this game if the spread wasn’t so sweet. Take the nine points. This will be another close game for both teams.

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