With more than a quarter of the season complete, we can now address the elephant in the room. Were our preseason predictions accurate? Who is the worst team in each conference heading into NFL Week 6?
With five games in the books, we have a very important question for you entering NFL Week 6. Who is the worst team in each conference? Normally, finding the best team is a fool’s errand, and searching for the worst is a piece of cake. This year, we’re not so sure.
Prior to the season, the picks for worst teams in the league were the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The NFC had no clear preseason bottom-dweller, but the Bills were a guarantee for such a distinction.
After five weeks, Buffalo and Tampa Bay each have multiple wins already. Neither is a playoff shoe-in or anything, but they are better than expected. The Bills are just a game back of New England, and Tampa Bay is two ahead of Atlanta in the loss column already. Who does that leave us for worst team entering NFL Week 6?
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the NFL Week 6 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
Todd Salem:
Based on record, the choices for worst team are Indianapolis or Oakland in the AFC, and Arizona, San Francisco, Atlanta, or the New York Giants in the NFC. Based on point differential, Buffalo is actually still the worst in the AFC, and Arizona is the NFC’s worst despite coming off a victory.
Football Outsiders’ DVOA (through four weeks) marked the same pair as the league’s worst. ESPN’s FPI says it’s Buffalo and Arizona too, with Miami a close second, despite amassing three wins already.
The AFC has six of the eight worst teams according to FPI. I want the conference choice to be Oakland. The Raiders are horrendous defensively and have propped up their offensive stats with their lone good performance: an overtime win at home against the Browns. But they’ve played a tough schedule to this point, including three road games and a game against the best team in the sport. If Oakland played Buffalo head-to-head, there is no way I would back the Bills.
One week doesn’t make a team. The Bills have one good week in the midst of a ton of dreck. Josh Allen is not a capable passer yet, and the entire team can only survive with a major turnover edge. Even the Bills’ thumping of Minnesota was due to getting all the loose-ball luck they could have in one game. I have to stick with the preseason consensus.
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The NFC is an interesting choice too. According to DVOA from last week, eight of the 10 worst teams in football play in the NFC. That should obviously normalize in time and after the latest stats are updated, but we are still left with a batch of options.
Arizona is the obvious choice, but we just saw the Cardinals beat San Francisco. That is why I lean toward the 49ers. Through no real fault of their own, the Niners are not able to compete right now. They are injured beyond recognition from where they were supposed to be, specifically on offense. And, to me, this was not an overly talented team to begin with.
I felt them overrated in the preseason, which just gets compounded when losing important players. San Francisco has not been the worst team this year; its resume is not the worst. But it is the worst team now.
Dan Salem:
I certainly believed before the season began that Buffalo and Tampa Bay were the worst teams in the AFC and NFC respectively, with Arizona pulling up a close second to the Buccaneers. Rookie quarterbacks and turmoil at the quarterback position tend to yield bad NFL seasons. Good defense can make up for it, or a strong running game. The worst teams in the NFL have neither one.
The Bills definitely “feel” like the worst AFC team, trotting out a rookie quarterback with few playmakers. Yet the Buffalo defense is not awful, and Josh Allen has injected his team with the confidence only a rookie can provide. Its the Oakland Raiders who are actually the worst team right now.
They decimated their own defense a week before the season began by trading Khalil Mack. Derek Carr keeps playing good, but not great. Jon Gruden appears in over his head and the AFC West is going to keep beating up his team all year. Add in the looming move to Las Vegas, and Oakland has nothing going for it.
Things are much less clear in the NFC. There are multiple teams who are bad, but some of them keep showing signs of competitiveness. The New York Giants, for example, find new ways to lose each week. Don’t blame the refs when you muff a punt and give your opponent a free touchdown, ultimately losing by only two points. Yet their ability to play close games removes them from being the worst team. Same is true of the Falcons.
It truly comes down to Arizona or San Francisco as worst in the NFC. The Cardinals have rookie blood at quarterback and a star running back, but they are not better than the 49ers. Both teams stink, but Arizona is worse. I realize they just beat San Francisco, but my money is on the 49ers to finish with more wins. Nothing about Josh Rosen has inspired confidence in me. His Cardinals are very bad.