NFL Predictions 2018: Evaluating preseason calls at midseason

Nearly half of the season is complete, so how did we do? The current division leaders are mostly chalk, but that doesn’t mean our NFL Predictions 2018 were accurate. Who’s the real Nostradamus?

Don’t look now, but after seven weeks, six of the eight NFL division leaders were the preseason favorites to take home the title. New England has shaken off a slow start and seen its three peers lose around it. Pittsburgh has done the same in the North. A four-game winning streak for Houston and dual three-game losing streaks for Jacksonville and Tennessee have pushed the Texans into first (Houston and Jacksonville had the same division title odds).

The lone under-performer in the AFC is Los Angeles, yet that isn’t even much of a story to this point. The Chargers were only slight favorites over Kansas City to start the year, and they have been pretty good to this point. The Chiefs have simply been better. In the NFC, the only favorite not living up to expectations is Philadelphia. So where does this leave our NFL Predictions 2018? No one likes chalk, but will it actually hold up?

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate their NFL Predictions 2018 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

Near-chalk hasn’t prevented us from being dead wrong about a number of our NFL Predictions 2018. My biggest blunder is definitely Kansas City. I thought the Chiefs would take a step back with an inexperienced and turnover-prone quarterback. Instead, Patrick Mahomes has been the best young quarterback in league history, at least according to the numbers. Whoops.

More from NFL Spin Zone

• Dallas Cowboys made the trade everyone else should have made
• Pittsburgh Steelers rookie sleeper everyone should be talking about
• Anthony Richardson putting jaw-dropping talent on display immediately
• Denver Broncos’ stud wide receiver might be out for a while
• Washington Commanders: Three takeaways from win over Ravens

In the NFC, I thought someone could unseat the Eagles in the East but tabbed New York as the best bet. Instead, the Giants are the worst team in the division by quite a large gulf. Changes are continually being made across the offensive line to boost up a terrible unit that wasn’t improved by a complete offseason overhaul. The quarterback and defense are also playing more like 2017 than 2016. Positive regression never came.

I suppose I was also spiritually wrong about Chicago while being technically right. The Bears are tied for last place in the North, but they don’t feel like a last place squad through six games. The entire division is within a game, and the Bears do have the best point differential of the four. The defense came together much faster than I expected, and yes, Mitch Trubisky and the offense have been pretty solid. If someone could only locate Jordan Howard, Chicago would be in business.

And lastly, though I wasn’t relying on the Rams to fumble away the West, I did think Seattle was the best bet in the division. The value seemed to be there. In hindsight, it feels idiotic to have wanted to bet against Los Angeles regardless of what value lied elsewhere.

Dan Salem:

The funny thing about the teams currently on top of each NFL division is that I don’t see them changing at all. Not one bit. Perhaps the AFC North and South change hands. The same can be said of the NFC East and South, but not the way teams are currently playing. The fact that our leaders represent near chalk in terms of preseason expectations is both gratifying and awful. No one wants the expected to happen!

It must be acknowledged that I was right in my NFL Predictions 2018, stating specifically how Andy Reid is a quarterback whisperer. I did not think the Chiefs would plummet from existence, yet I never imagined they would be this good to start the season.

Thus far I have been dead wrong on Jacksonville and Cincinnati. The Bengals are actually pretty good, while the Jaguars are legitimately bad right now. I picked them as the best team in the AFC, which they are not. No matter how much the Jaguars rebound, something is missing and they are a quarterback short of contention.

Neither of our worst to first picks are going to get it done, as both Denver and the New York Giants continue to struggle. We also completely whiffed on our first to worst picks, because the Chiefs and Saints are really good! All of this just makes predictions feel utterly stupid. That being said, our Playoff Predictions are completely on track. We each are off by one team in each conference, but I suppose that’s what chalk does to things.

Despite slow starts from a number of teams expected to be very good, I’m only worried about two. Both made championship games last season and both are on track to miss the playoffs. Jacksonville and Philadelphia are treading water.

Both play in weaker divisions and are within a game of first place. The Eagles are in the best shape, but I think they come up short. Jacksonville is an enigma. The team that decimated New England can easily win the AFC South. The team that got decimated last week isn’t winning another football game.