Fantasy Football 2018: Lack of busts proves everything

All but one of the top RBs and WRs have produced in fantasy football this season. The lack of busts proves everything. One trend reveals another aberration.

Le’Veon Bell is not playing this season. Cooper Kupp will not play again this season. Those two represent an odd anomaly for the fantasy football 2018 season. Very few of the top players have “busted”. Normally in fantasy, a handful of the top guys end up being horrible picks. This is most often due to injury but occasionally due to scheme changes, loss of playing time, or outright ineptitude.

This year, Bell gives us a rare first-round player who will not see the field a single down and yet did not suffer any injury. Kupp wasn’t an elite receiver, but he was a top 100 player owned in most leagues who will now be gone for the most important matchups of the fantasy football season. Besides them, take a look around. Very few guys have been busts. Is this a trend or aberration? Look closely, because it proves everything.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate Fantasy Football 2018 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

The most obvious bust among RBs and WRs this season is Devonta Freeman, who is on IR. Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook have missed a lot of time but now appear back to their normal selves down the home stretch. Owners of those players could be out of the playoff picture because of their injuries, but if you managed to tread water, you could be in good shape.

The top six backs based on draft order have yet to miss a single game. The same goes for the top six wide receivers — at least it did until A.J. Green missed Week 9 and will continue to miss time. The worst we can say about these top guys is some of them have been slightly disappointing.

David Johnson has struggled to operate in the anemic Arizona offense, but he still ranks as a top-10 back in PPR leagues. Odell Beckham Jr. found similar struggles on the bad Giants team, but he ranks eighth among receivers after three straight quality performances. Julio Jones couldn’t find the end zone until Week 9, but he still ranks seventh.

The biggest culprits of busting are perhaps Rob Gronkowski and the top quarterbacks. Tight ends in general have been terrible, but Gronk was far and away the first off the board yet doesn’t even come close to the TE leader board. He doesn’t even crack the top 12 in a down year for the position, and this wasn’t much better before he got hurt. As for the top QBs, Rodgers and Brady perhaps prove once and for all that it doesn’t make sense to spend early picks on this position.

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That leaves us with busts further down the list. Jordan Howard has been horrible, but he was no one’s top back unless they ignored the position for three rounds. The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a huge disappointment, but if you drafted a defense before the final two rounds, you get what you deserve.

Overall, fantasy football 2018 feels like it’s been a year of positives. Rather than top guys busting, lower guys simply came out of the muck to dominate. Look at Pat Mahomes, Adam Thielen, James Conner, James White, and even the Chicago defense.

Do you see this as a trend or an aberration? Obviously, a lack of major injuries cannot be a trend unless you believe all the small safety measures the league has taken are working. Maybe, but it seems like random chance.

Instead, there could be something to healthy fantasy stars being overtaken by breakout performers. The league is so reliant on play-calling and coaching. Couldn’t Sean McVay operate with any set of players at this point? We know Drew Brees and Sean Payton can. Can Andy Reid turn any QB into a star?

He’s done it with scramblers, with game managers, with rocket arms. And on the opposite end of the spectrum, even the premiere athletes can be held down within a stumbling offensive system. Johnson needed his coordinator to be fired. Jones’ coordinator can still not figure out how to get him space in the red zone. A simple change in approach is what submarined Howard; not a sudden loss of ability. It’s an interesting factor to consider in future seasons.

Dan Salem:

This season feels like a total aberration in terms of none of the top running backs and wide receivers busting… that is until you look at the full picture. One of the top running backs did bust, and the tight end and quarterback positions were total busts. Breakout players are going to steal the show every season. That is the new trend, making the bust potential for our top guys even higher. Lack of injuries is an aberration, but busting is not.

I’d argue that Julio Jones is a bust, based on average draft position and actual performance. Perhaps he will up his touchdown numbers over the second half of the season, but if he doesn’t then Jones must be considered a bust. Touchdowns are paramount to fantasy success. This is a perfect example of coaching that makes or breaks a player’s fantasy value.

Its not like the Falcons are failing to score, but Jones has not been the recipient of Atlanta’s production in the endzone. The opposite is true of every wide receiver on the the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints. They will get their fantasy points nine games out of ten.

We argued before the season about quarterback value, but a team’s desire and ability to throw the football often comes down to coaching and offensive lineman. Eli Manning was a viable fantasy quarterback once upon a time, because of his receiving weapons. Yet a lack of pass protection submarined his fantasy football 2018 season. That is over simplifying the Giants’ issues, but the point remains the same.

This season was not about getting a star quarterback, but rather a signal caller in a reliable offense. Consistency is key to fantasy success and this year the “old reliables” like Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers and Drew Brees proved to be great pickups. None entered the season with much buzz. Yet others have truly disappointed, or have no separation from their peers. Bottom line, its not worth picking a quarterback ahead of your starting running backs and receivers.

Busting is a trend, because new guys are overtaking the leader boards every season now. You must grab the non-busts or the breakout players. What feels like an aberration, besides injuries, is the black hole that tight end has become this year. Travis Kelce should be a great fantasy option each week. He plays for the Kansas City Chiefs who score tons of points every game. Yet Kelce has only been a great play half the time.

I can’t fathom how the entire league suddenly decided to ignore their tight ends more often than not, after utilizing them in full force for 5+ years running. The pass-catching running back has eclipsed the tight end in offenses around the league, making backup running backs more valuable. There’s not much we can do about this, except hope its truly an aberration. Otherwise, every league will want to get rid of tight ends entirely.